SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

EmailTruck

Member Since
May 17, 2024
Forum Posts
170
Posts per Day
3.5
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 26 at 9:33 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 26 at 9:33 a.m.
Thread: Help for Bedard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ujeje</b></div><div>That's a strong statement as that contract has been running for 2 years and before that he was like most underpaid player in the league (4,3M for ppg selke winner). That contract was also considered as one of the better ones when signed, but no one can predict injuries.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/2792190/2021/08/26/why-the-flyers-had-to-commit-to-sean-couturier-breaking-down-the-8-year-62-million-extension/

Yes CBA is expiring and if it goes as before that there's going to be some major changes, they probably also grant teams 1-2 compliance buyouts that doesn't harm the cap space (like we have Bryzgalov).</div></div>

Okay, I should have been more precise. The 2019-2020 season, when he was 27, is the last time he lived up to a $7.75 million per year contract, which is the contract that he currently has. Injuries are unfortunate and unpredictable, but we know about them now, and even if you attribute his decline entirely to injuries it’s unlikely he’ll regain his form of four years ago. He’s a cap dump.

And as for LTIR, they “probably” will grant some form of buyout. That means the Hawks still take on risk at the end of the deal, when our contention window has opened.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 26 at 8:48 a.m.
Thread: Help for Bedard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Considering he was out two yrs, and most thought he'd never play again, for him to come back and play 74 games and get 38 pts, (on one of the worst offenses in the league) and not be bothered by injury, hes sunk so low to be worth FC?

And while hes 31 yrs old and signed for 6 yrs, (he has had 2 yrs off which helps the mileage on his body), if he goes LTIR, it doesn;t hurt against cap in the future, and while he might not get back to 70 pts, he looks certainly able to be a 45-55 pt guy in a growing cap after getting back to game shape/speed, so I dont think hes worth tons, but hes worth alot more than FC.</div></div>

There are six years left on his deal. The CBA expires in two years, and the NHL has expressed interest in closing the LTIR loophole. There’s no guarantee that a team could stash him on LTOR for the current cap benefits by the end of his deal. And even if he becomes a 55 point a year guy again, $7.75 million for six more years is a significant overpay. This contract is a cap dump, and a fairly significant one.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 25 at 11:09 a.m.
Thread: MY 32 Hawks for 24-25
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bedsy_Burner</b></div><div>Honestly, I would actually prefer something closer to this. I would still like one top 6 addition and one solid vet RD, but outside of that, I think this is better for the rebuild. All these other ideas people keep proposing cost too many assets and will probably get us in cap trouble down the road.

The worst possible summer, imho, would be if they went on some big spending spree, acquiring players and signing big contracts. That would just be a big old slap in the face and offend my senses.</div></div>

I suppose you’re right. “Worst possible offseason” was incredibly hyperbolic of me— none of these moves hurt the team long term. But this would also reflect a complete lack of desire to move forward in the rebuild: no prospects playing in the NHL, no upgrades to play with the young players already in the NHL, nothing to move along the rebuild. Looking at the team last year and deciding to run it back would be ridiculous.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 24 at 6:21 p.m.
Thread: Montreal Canadiens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BobbyPSC</b></div><div>According to PuckPedia the 5th and 26th are enough value to move up to the 3rd. Take the 14TH and flip it to WPG for McGroarty.</div></div>

I can’t believe I’m replying to a thread with 35 posts already, but PuckPedia cannot be accurate for the top picks in the draft. 2004 was the last time a team traded a top 5 pick (not counting team’s trading future picks which turn out to be top 5, whose values aren’t known at the time of the trade). Any discussion of trading a top 5 pick is basically entirely hypothetical— those trades just don’t happen— but Puckpedia cannot train their pick value model on any historical trades of top 5 picks, so there’s no reason to expect it to be in any way accurate.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 24 at 4:44 p.m.
Thread: Leafs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MrAicrow2009</b></div><div>That marner trade sucks, Seth Jones sucks, Why are all you leaf fans interested in him
Seth Jones stats last 5 seasons
19-20 56 GP 6-24-30
20-21 56 GP 5-23-28
21-22 78 GP 5-46-51
22-23 72 GP 12-25-37
23-24 67 GP 8-23-31
Seth Jones has not been good in a while he just hovers around the 30-40 Point range, not close to a 9.5M Player</div></div>

As a Hawks fan, I disagree with this take. Points is a terrible way of evaluating a defenseman; Seth Jones is probably worth about $7-7.5 million a year, not $9.5 million, but the majority of big-name players you'd sign in free agency (such as Mitch Marner) are going to be overpaid, too. IMO, if the Hawks are sending Reichel and Hall (with retention) along with Jones, then Toronto has to attach a 1st round pick instead of Chicago attaching a 2nd as a starting point for the trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 24 at 4:16 p.m.
Thread: No cup in my life time
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fran615</b></div><div>That offer gets pick #2 in my opinion.

#18 --- for ---- #21 and #23 and a player that can be flipped for a late pick?

That gets it done in my opinion.</div></div>

#18 for #21 and #23 is obviously a huge overpay for Toronto-- #18 and #34 for #21 and #23 even is a good deal for the Hawks. But the trade as crafted was for the #2 overall pick, not for the Hawks second 1st round pick. Puckpedia sees the trade as fair only if Niemela is worth #8 overall, but given that (1) the Hawks have an abundance of 1st round picks anyways and (2) no top 5 pick has been traded in the offseason before the draft or on draft day in 20 years, I think Toronto would have to acquire and add multiple top 10 picks, which obviously would not happen.