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F50marco

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May 29, 2015
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Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 12:58 p.m.
Thread: Zegras is not coming to MTL please stop
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>I'll offer a different choice. Keep making Zegras trades!

What we should do is stop taking Trades, AGMs, comments, etc that we don't agree with as some sort of attack, that through power of persuasion, will make said action more likely to happen IRL.

Its a fantasy hockey site. If you don't like someone's opinion of a value/trade, move on..... or comment against it! Who cares, as long as its done with respect.</div></div>

Oh the purpose of this thread isn’t to literally ask people to stop posting Zegras trades. It’s mainly aimed at the folks who are trying to justify that Zegras to MTL has a very high likelihood of happening. And at a cheap (or even market value) cost.
Zegras just isn’t worth the asking price imo
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 10:15 a.m.
Thread: Rossi Traded
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>The point would be that both GM's were selling from a point of weakness. Gauthier because he was not going to sign with Philly and Rossi with the fact that it seems he's not a Guerin guy and he keep him despite him playing well. The actual exact details are not the same as i said, obviously. Similar only that one sense.

For sure we'll find out if he's gung ho on moving him. Hope he moves past the size thing and keeps him. He's finally turning into the player he was drafted to be.</div></div>

But the relative points of weakness aren't even remotely close to one another, and that's assuming Guerin is even dealing from a point of weakness to begin with. Which, I don't agree that he is. That's fine if you do, but it's hardly indisputable like it was in the case of Briere/Gauthier.

The entire argument is propped up on the opinion that once a GM a makes a player available, he damages his negotiating power to a significant enough degree that you're pointing it out. No issue with you having that stance, but that isn't a fact.

And agree - moving him for size/grit reasons would be quite dumb. Rossi plays hard and tough, I don't get Guerin's obsession with trying to be the nastiest team in the league.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 4:36 p.m.
Thread: Rossi Traded
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Hmm I still disagree with that first sentiment. NHL trading is different than stocks and the housing market but yes I do agree with the old boys club mentality of the GM's. I didn't mean to imply that teams were now going to bend Guerin over backwards as a result. More so that, in a vacuum, a player like Rossi after the season he had would reach a level of perceived value that would force other teams to start a higher starting point for negotiations. Making him available (With realistic expectations and not just "listening"), automatically changes the dynamic of that negotiation.

Again I didn't mean that now Minny would need to accept the first crap offer thrown at them and I agree 100% with the Team A gets Player X and Team B gets Player Y + Draft Pick Z assertion. The real question I was hinting to is what would be the difference between the hypothetical scenario mentioned above vs if Rossi was not being actively shopped. IMHO I think there would be a decent amount of value lost as a result.

A similar but not exact example of this was Philly with Gauthier. What would Philly have got in return if Gauthier never wanted out and they were just listening to teams offers? Different circumstance than with Rossi obviously but a parallel can be made.</div></div>

Gauthier is not a good parallel at all. He was not under contract with PHI and outright said he would not sign. Rossi, however, has a contractual obligation with the Minnesota Wild and does not have an ounce of say in the matter. There is an iron clad legal difference between the two situations. That has exponentially more to do with trade price than whether or not a GM "made the player available."

We're just gonna have to agree to disagree here, and we can revisit the value if he does get dealt this summer.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 12:23 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 17 at 4:35 p.m.
Thread: Markstrom Hayes and trading down
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>I disagree about that range but that's just my amateur opinion of course. I think the top 3-10 are interchangeable only. After that it starts to be a little more grey.</div></div>

I see it as roughly

Tier I: Celebrini

Tier II: Levshunov, Demidov, Catton, Eiserman

Tier III: Buium, Connelly, Dickinson, Silayev, Lindstrom, Yakemchuk, Iginla, Helenius, Greentree, Brandsegg-Nygard, Boisvert, Parekh, Chernyshov, Jiricek

(A few of those guys bounce around between II and III)

So I would agree with <a href="/users/SJS2212" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@SJS2212</a> in that the 6-15 range is a little similar and unless one of the top few fall, it could make some sense for NJD to move back and add an asset or two.

In the scenario above, they turned #10 pick into 3C, 4LW and still drafted Brandsegg Nygard (a guy that could have selected at #10). Most of our core is already built, thanks to years of high draft picks, so we mainly just have to address specific holes in lineup.

(Devils brass may have other plans…including trading the pick outright).
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14 at 7:32 a.m.
Thread: UFA vets to complete top 6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jay27</b></div><div>Idk, Stammer is great but I just don’t think it’s a great idea to go out and spend 10.5 a year for the next 3 years on a guy who’s 34 years old. Also I know +\~ is an archaic stat and all but has anyone else noticed that he is a ~21 on a team that has a +25 goal differential?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jay27</b></div><div>If MTL goes out and spends nearly 15mill on veteran UFAs this year then what happens next year when they need to sign Guhle and Slafkovsky to long term contracts?</div></div>

It a fair point, however if you look at the longterm outlook tab, you can see that the following year, the habs will have 30M$ in cap space to sign them.

I expect Slaf to get something like Caufield’s deal and that they will bridge Guhle.

As for the reason to pick up Stamkos - I think <a href="/users/F50marco" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@F50marco</a> sums it up quite well!

You want that vet presence in the locker room… and so far our vets seem to play on the bottom 6.

Let’s splurge on the old rockstar - we can afford it.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13 at 10:52 a.m.
Thread: UFA vets to complete top 6
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Savard, Armia, Dvorak, Evans + cap increase should be enough. Not to mention that Anderson is likely gone one way or another. They'd be fine.

Im all for adding Stamkos at whatever number he wants as long as its short term. Toffoli will get more than that though and frankly I'd be ok with just Stamkos. Newhook deserves the other top 6 mins off the hop here IMO. Dvorak-Armia-Roy on 3rd line. Evans Gally and whoever on 4th.</div></div>

Idk, Stammer is great but I just don’t think it’s a great idea to go out and spend 10.5 a year for the next 3 years on a guy who’s 34 years old. Also I know +\~ is an archaic stat and all but has anyone else noticed that he is a ~21 on a team that has a +25 goal differential?
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 28 at 2:44 p.m.
Thread: PLD Redux
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Frankly who cares about production, he's been on a number of teams now and left each one with a sour taste in their mouths. I want no part of PLD and its officially buyer beware with him. Not worth the risk. I was totally on board bringing him in this past offseason but seeing how he's been in LAK, Im glad they didn't get him.

Anderson can be bought out if we're at that point with him. Not only are the Habs paying top dollar for PLD here, they're also taking on massive risk. there's no need. They're probably drafting a center this year, getting Dach back next year and are still a lottery team/non playoff team. The right play here is to be patient and if anything add through free agency where the only really costs are overpaying cap, which the Habs have oodles of so its not a huge burden.</div></div>

I don't disagree with you on UFA, but every time I suggest bringing in players like Monahan, Toffoli, Marchessault, Reinhart, or even trading before the TDL for Hertl, I get tons of pushback from the same crowd complaining that those players will become an albatross before their contract is up.

Essentially the fans around here only value young players, and only if you can trade for them by offering a bunch of Bs and Cs for an A+ and then severely underpay the player.

Like Harris, Armia, and WPG's 1st for Boldy is ever gonna freaking happen?! You need to give something to get something. You always need to manage your risk, but sometimes risks pay off. Dach &amp; Newhook deals were risks. They are working out (ish). I think PLD could work out too. I don't believe that he's a Prima Donna, if I did I would not trade for him.

I think you are wrong about them being a bottom feeder team next year. They will make moves this offseason and push for the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread: Players Id want
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Got to think the Habs would accept this just on the premise of good value and the team already having a surplus of young dmen.



I sort of agree on the value standpoint but also think you may be judging him a bit harshly too. Its not every day that a team has like 4-5 under 23 yo NHL ready dmen all competing for the last couple spots on a team. He's showed he's more than capable at the NHL but ppl have to be reminded that he is also still young too. He's susceptible to brain farts but most 22 yo dmen are. I think we judge him harsher simply based on the fact we have a plethora of other options. That doesn't mean he wouldn't be an everyday dman on another team with less depth. Habs have an abnormal amount of young depth at this level that they can afford to not be as patient.</div></div>

Fully agree i think he could still develop into a decent dman, but I think philly could pry him from mtl for a little cheaper, then they wouldve been able to last year..But 100% he is a victim of the deep prospect pool the habs have on d.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 12 at 6:24 p.m.
Thread: Perfecting the roster and maintaining cap rollover
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>What's the issue with Toffoli? Seems to be the odd man out in a lot of these.</div></div>

Earlier (pre McLeod exile) it was because there were 10 guys who all deserved top 9 spots.

I wanted lines of:
Hughes-Haula-Mercer
Nico-Palat-Bratt
McLeod-Meier-Holtz
Lazar-Smith-Bastian

Now it’s still similar in that I’d like to give toffolis role to holtz, but also in that we now have other needs.

A) this may not be our year and we may sell
B) due to injuries we need to preserve cap space to prevent our rookie bonuses from rolling over
C) our most pressing need is a puck moving LD and PK guy, followed by a goalie, followed by improvements to our depth/4th line/PKing forwards (took a big hit losing McLeod who had been elite on both ends)

So moving toffoli, who is a touch slow for our system imo, in order to get A) Cap space B) Holtz into the top 6 and C) assets to use to fill more crucial needs is a prudent solution instead of losing him for nothing in the offseason assuming he doesn’t resign.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5 at 2:27 p.m.
Thread: Calm Down
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>I know its wrong, probably, but I just can't bring myself to value a Pens forward not named Crosby or Malkin fairly. All I see are Dupuis's and Kunitz's. They could play an entire season without those guys in the lineup and I'd still be like "Ah they're just a product of Sid/Geno...."

Just for that bias alone, I think Reinhart is better and more valuable.

And yes I totally understand that if Cole Caufield had the stats Guentzel has had, he'd be considered a star player without any question. Like I said, I know its a bias.</div></div>

This has been a thing that has been disproved time and time again. Through Jake's tenure as a Penguin, he's had many long stretches where Sid and/or Geno have been injured and still maintained his production.

I'm not saying this in an argumentative way, but if the idea that you can place anyone next to Sid or Geno and turn them into a 30-40 goal scorer EVERY year, then they'd be spending $2M a year on every top-six winger. It takes a certain skill set and certain abilities to be able to play with Sid and Geno.

And FWIW, Dupuis and Kunitz never put up Jake's numbers, and they had Sid in his prime years.