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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Baras Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sk540</b></div><div>You also don't have the same evaluation of Krug compared to TK. TK is younger, has more value, and has a much more friendly contract the next two years, making him easily affordable. I'd assume any trade would come with some retention so the Flyers can augment the return coming back in the way of draft picks or prospects. At this point, although Krug certainly does have some value and is talented, it almost seems like a cap dump for the Blues. They clearly don't want him, or, have no problem moving on from him I guess is better to say, but I really don't think players care. Sure, that's in the back of his head, but his teammates, brothers, on the team, that's who he really plays with and for, so that should not be a huge thing for him.

That said, I would start the trade at:

TK (50% retention)
Wade Allison
'24 4th

for

Krug
Neighbors
'24 1st
'25 2nd

May be a steep price but getting a point per game guy who is entering his prime, for 2.75mm a year for two years, significantly helps your team now, and gives Armstrong the flexibility to make moves at the TDL and in the offseason next year. Then when TK's contract is up, the cap goes up.</div></div>

Perhaps I'm under-valuing Konecny, but I would think Neighbors, a first and a second would be fair value for Konecny straight up.
Allison is interesting, but I'm not sure where he would fit on this Blues roster. If they brought in both Allison and Konecny, they'd have quite a log jam.

Perhaps a deal built around Allison and Krug would make more sense, assuming Krug would waive (however unlikely that might be).
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Baras Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sk540</b></div><div>You also don't have the same evaluation of Krug compared to TK. TK is younger, has more value, and has a much more friendly contract the next two years, making him easily affordable. I'd assume any trade would come with some retention so the Flyers can augment the return coming back in the way of draft picks or prospects. At this point, although Krug certainly does have some value and is talented, it almost seems like a cap dump for the Blues. They clearly don't want him, or, have no problem moving on from him I guess is better to say, but I really don't think players care. Sure, that's in the back of his head, but his teammates, brothers, on the team, that's who he really plays with and for, so that should not be a huge thing for him.

That said, I would start the trade at:

TK (50% retention)
Wade Allison
'24 4th

for

Krug
Neighbors
'24 1st
'25 2nd

May be a steep price but getting a point per game guy who is entering his prime, for 2.75mm a year for two years, significantly helps your team now, and gives Armstrong the flexibility to make moves at the TDL and in the offseason next year. Then when TK's contract is up, the cap goes up.</div></div>

Perhaps I'm under-valuing Konecny, but I would think Neighbors, a first and a second would be fair value for Konecny straight up.
Allison is interesting, but I'm not sure where he would fit on this Blues roster. If they brought in both Allison and Konecny, they'd have quite a log jam.

Perhaps a deal built around Allison and Krug would make more sense, assuming Krug would waive (however unlikely that might be).
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 10:44 a.m.
Thread: Baras Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BigChrispy</b></div><div>If Krug IS moved, it certainly won't be to Philly. We obviously need to clear up the log jam at D (and up front to be honest), but Krug is a hard piece to move right now given his previous performance, cap hit, term, and NTC. Unfortunately, we're better off seeing if Weber can work some magic and get the core back on track and either A) get back to the top 10 core they were supposed to be at the beginning of last season or B) move them for assets at the TDL. If he can't, those contracts will be easier to move next year.

Also, you can't buy out Scandella anymore. His cap hit isn't high enough to meet the second buyout window requirement ($4M or &gt; )</div></div>

You're almost certainly right, but I still feel compelled to try to think through different ways that could be resolved.

I didn't realize the buyout constraints RE: Scandella, thanks for pointing that out.

One way or another, barring early injury (which is always a high probability), Blues need to move a LD and bring in a RD, or at least save some salary cap space to do so later.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2023 at 10:03 a.m.
Thread: Baras Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sk540</b></div><div>Krug said he isn't coming to Philly, made it pretty well known. Why waste time even doing this?</div></div>

Glad you asked!

Krug is a proud guy. I suspect that the prospect of playing for a team that actually wants him will have become more appealing to him than the alternative. Yes, that's pure speculation--but so is the argument to the contrary.

I don't think Krug has negative value, and while Konecny is a terrific middle six winger who undoubtedly has more value than a fiesty PP specialist defenseman, it isn't that much more. I thought perhaps the prospect of moving up a few rounds in the draft for a couple late round picks would be sufficient to move the dial for Philly, given that they've already expressed interest--but it seems the consensus is that isn't nearly enough. I suppose you would know better than me.

Bottom line, I suspect that Krug has already played his last game in St. Louis. But frankly, there aren't that many teams who could afford him right now. So what's your counter? Assuming the unlikely prospect that he comes around to the idea of accepting a deal to Philly, and assuming Konecny was the main piece in return, what do you think it would take to balance such a deal?
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 26, 2021 at 10:48 a.m.
Thread: Lou and Doug walk into a bar
So--I anticipated these responses--many with which I do not disagree. This is not dissimilar to other armchair deals I've proposed here before. Call me a glutton for punishment.
I do not honestly think such a deal is feasible, nor am I trying to convince anyone otherwise. Hence, the thread title.

But there is logic behind why I would do this, if it were feasible. I don't expect any of you to agree, and I know that flamers are gonna flame anyway. But I will share my thought process.
1. Assuming Lou really covets Tarasenko: Tank's questionable health diminishes his value, Mayfield's contract enhances his. I am considering Mayfield for Tarasenko to be *almost* an even swap, and that part of the trade, alone, helps both clubs improve.
2. Bailey clears cap for NYI brings a Steen style presence, reliable two-way play, and experience. Adding another skilled defensive forward is critical if the Blues intend to get a good look at Neighbors, or give significant ice to Kostin--especially since Sundqvist isn't expected to be available to start the season. Perunovich is the piece I would give up to get Bailey. The Blues are stacked on LD with immovable contracts. There is nowhere for Perunovich on this roster. Getting value for him now is prudent--it isn't "throwing him away". What would be a waste is letting him languish in the AHL until his contract expires or his value dries up. Isles need quality defensive depth anyway, even if they keep Mayfield.
3. Bortuzzo is included for cap purposes, and as a serviceable (if unattractive) replacement for Mayfield's defensive assignments. Yes, it is a downgrade at that position, but the upgrade at forward compensates for this. And, Bortuzzo isn't just a guy--he's a very underrated player. In fact, this is the one piece of the trade that I'm most uncomfortable with, because he's a valuable asset the Blues will miss, even with Mayfield.
4. I've argued here and elsewhere that Thomas and Bellows are a wash. They were drafted a year apart at nearly the same spot. Thomas got a jumpstart on his career playing for a championship team, but he's plateau'd. Bellows has seasoned a bit longer, but has similar upside. The difference is, Thomas is a playmaker, Bellows is a finisher. The Blues need more of the latter, and I think the Isles can use more of the former.

All of that is controversial conjecture, but it's not as wild as it sounds. Though, yes, it is unrealistic.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 20, 2021 at 4:18 p.m.
Thread: StL Isles
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>This is beyond god awful. Why the hell would they throw away Thomas and Perunovich like this?





Haha what??? They take that and run to the hills laughing their asses off.</div></div>

That's not throwing away Thomas. Bellows is a comparable talent, and a better fit for StL in my opinion.
Bailey is highly underrated, is a good return for Tarasenko, all things considered, and would also be a better fit in StL.

I will agree, that is a lousy return for Perunovich. Another pick coming to StL would help balance that out. But as to why, it's pretty self-explanatory: barring multiple season-ending injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, there is literally nowhere else for him to play. In spite of his talent, his lack of NHL experience hurts his value. He is, in other words, another incarnation of Schmaltz, whom the Blues lost for nothing because he languished in the AHL until his value was nil.

Morin offers better flexibility, both in terms of salary cap space and roster placement. Now that he's healthy, his size will make him an intimidating presence, even if he's not an accomplished fighter.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 20, 2021 at 2:40 p.m.
Thread: StL Isles
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DeadWingsv2</b></div><div>Detroit trade is not an option. Staal has a NMC for a reason. At this stage in his career, family stability is more important to him than winning.

Also, Detroit doesn't want Sanford.</div></div>

You may be right, but I'm betting that Staal would be willing to waive to come to STL for a bigger role on another contending team. As for family, I don't understand why, but one consistent selling point for the Blues is that players say their families love it there, and they love retiring from there. Perhaps that wouldn't appeal to Staal, but stranger things have happened.

Detroit might not be interested, but I doubt they would get better value for Staal than a young power forward with soft hands and a third. I think it's fair to say that Staal may hold more value for them right now than the proposed return, but that's a timing issue. He's a UFA-to-be. I think they would have to consider.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2021 at 5:36 p.m.
Thread: Lineup
- So much hinges on whether Tarasenko starts the season with the Blues. I don't care to bet on it one way or another. But I also don't believe I could put together a better lineup if he stays. What you've put together makes a lot of sense. Still, there are a few considerations you are disregarding that I think can *almost* be taken for granted.
- Sundqvist will be on the IR for the start of the season.
- Walman may play his way onto the 3rd pairing, but I doubt they would sit
Bortuzzo for Scandella to play RD. I think Scandella and Walman will start on the left and Mikkola will (unfortunately) be a scratch.
- It's not a given that Parayko will be healthy to start the season.
- Clifford is going to play, for better or worse. Sanford isn't going to sit, either. If Joshua makes the team, I think Sanford will be traded.
- I think Kostin makes the team, but he'll play 3rd or 4th line RW. One of Buchnevich or Perron will slot into LW (probably Perron).
- I don't think it matters where they plug Tarasenko into the lineup. If he's here, he's going to get ice time as long as he's willing to perform. If he starts sulking, things will get ugly fast.
- Thomas needs 2d line minutes. But he won't get them.
- Whether he finds a taker for Tarasenko or not, I don't thing DA is done dealing.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2021 at 6:11 a.m.
Thread: Bobbys Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>doesn’t sniff tkachuk</div></div>

Maybe, maybe not. Is Brad Treliving immune to Jedi mind tricks? Because Doug Armstrong is a Jedi master. Just ask Jason Botteril. Calgary wants a drastic kick in the pants, and coaching changes aren't enough.

To be fair, I wasn't expecting that proposed deal would be popular with Flames fans, or any fans who aren't Blues fans. I am, however, expecting Army to pull off another amazing feat of general management.

Obviously Tkachuk is the best player in the deal. But Kyrou is highly valued by the Blues--his speed and vision make him a special player. Sanford is a budding power forward--soft hands but gritty and versatile, if a bit streaky. Walman has become a solid defender with a great shot, but he is a victim of the Blues' depth on LD. Given the chance, he has the skill and the smarts to be a decent second pairing defenseman.

None of these are big-name players, but they're hardly scrubs. Add in the picks, and it's not bad value--especially considering the return other teams are getting for top-end high-salary talent. It's simply a buyers market right now.

I would hope for more, too, as a Flames fan. But your GM is eager to shake things up, the team would benefit from the salary cap space and quality depth, and--face it--Tkachuk will be coming to St. Louis sooner than later anyway. Might as well get something for him.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2020 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread: Army Goes Crazy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jwg314</b></div><div>Nah, I was gonna say when you get flamed by everyone for these terrible offers, that the Blues fans on here don’t claim you, but it looks like everyone just decided to ignore you anyway.</div></div>

All three of them? Imagine my sadness.

For the record, I started the thread with a pretty clear disclaimer.

In any case, I don't take myself seriously enough to spell it out to you--I just happen to be bored right now.

I very rarely post here. Do you come here often? Contribute much, or do you just look for people to flame? Get a shot of adrenaline from being rude? What's your excuse for hanging out on an internet hockey forum to pick fights? What, exactly, are you compensating for?

Nevermind. I don't really care.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2020 at 10:25 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 6, 2018 at 7:06 p.m.
Thread: opening night
You may be right, but those aren't the lines I'd be penciling in for opening night. You and a couple hundred others will protest, but I will explain. Yeo will roll three lines, giving them equal minutes, and use a skilled but sheltered 4th line selectively. My starting lineup for Game 1 looks like this:

Schwartz--Schenn--Perron. Perron has the skill and speed to play with Schwartz and Schenn, both of whom will benefit having a talented pest who can finish.

Maroon--O'Reilly--Kyrou. A perfectly balanced trio. Maroon provides protection, O'Reilly provides defense, and Kyrou brings the speed. Sets young Kyrou up for success.

Steen--Bozak--Tarasenko. NO, this is NOT a "3rd line". This is merely one of the Blues' many "2nd lines", and it's also well-balanced.

Fabbri--Thomas--Soshnikov. Plays sheltered minutes. Fabbri gets eased back into the game. Thomas gets to play his natural position with talented wingers. Soshnikov easily beats out Jaskin for the last RW slot, and stays there as long as he stays healthy.

Thorburn and Nolan both get called up on more than one occasion, but neither will dress for the Blues in a regular season game all year.

Barbashev/Jaskin are kept as extras. Jaskin sulks and gets dealt, with Gunnarsson, before Thanksgiving.
Edmundson is first pairing with Petro.
J-Bo gets benched by Christmas and reluctantly waives his NMC to be dealt to an injury riddled Eastern Conference team.
Dunn reclaims 2nd pairing, and Mikkola gets called up to play with Bortuzzo--and they all thrive.

Edmundson--Petro
J-Bo--Parayko
Dunn--Bortuzzo
Gunnarsson

This is all the old Gypsy woman would tell me.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2018 at 10:39 a.m.
Thread: 2018-2019 Starting lineups
Gunnarsson and Bouwmeester are not going to be on LTIR at the start of the season. By all accounts, they're expected to be 100% by season's start, if not the start of camp.
Regardless of their status, if neither of them are available to play, I don't think the Blues are going to play Schmaltz on the left side, even if they are stuck paying him an NHL salary.
I don't see where Schmaltz plays, unless there is an injury to Petro, Parayko or Bortuzzo. <em>Maybe</em>, if one or both of J-Bo or Gunnarsson or Dunn are dealt, or or get reinjured, or if Edmundson holds out or something, they might consider playing Parayko on his off side. Or they might sit Bortuzzo for a few games at the start of the season to showcase Schmaltz for a pending deal. I don't know. But if there is a roster vacancy on the left, I suspect they would be more apt to bring up Mikkola.
Wotherspoon likely remains in San Antonio. His 30 games of NHL experience probably don't qualify him as a preferred callup option.
Interesting to see Maroon penciled in on the right. I think he'll be all over the lineup, but I'm looking forward to seeing how Mike Yeo puts him to use.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2018 at 10:24 a.m.
Thread: Blues 18/19
Don't see Steen being dealt--and if he were, he wouldn't be waiving trade protections to go to the Isles, who aren't exactly hurting for LWs. Speaking of which, the Isles are in desperate need of LD--I'd be looking to move Gunnarsson to them (I've advocated packaging two of Gunnarsson, Walman or Schmaltz to the Isles for Mayfield, just to have an experienced crease clearer as 7D).
I'm excited about Reinke (kid has hands the size of Andre the Giant), but I don't think he's quite ready, and shouldn't be playing ahead of a healthy Bortuzzo. And hanging on to Walman likely means he suffers the same fate as Schmaltz--buried by depth, lost value, squandered potential.

If we did somehow move Steen, I don't see how we don't replace him with Kyrou, unless there's another worthy winger coming back in the deal (Steen+Kostin for Skinner? Doubt they'd do it, but I would).

In any event, it will be interesting to see how this roster turns out. Yeo certainly has lots of possibilities to work with! I just hope they don't allow salary considerations to dictate roster positions--we should be dressing the team that gives us the best opportunity to win, every night, period.