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BAC

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St. Louis Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 8:13 p.m.
Thread: Small deals: NYI, MTL, PHI, WPG, DET, CAR, TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BluesGetTheCup</b></div><div>Nolan's advanced stats are terrible and he's Thorburn 2.0, saying he contributed to the Kings is a bit misleading as he played like 7 minutes per game that year. Jaskin actually contributes to possession and defense. But we can agree to disagree lol.

Next year Gunnarsson/Bouw are off the books. Walman spending a year in the AHL and stepping into the 3rd pairing role next year as LD makes sense to me. Schmaltz leaving is fine, there's no room for him.

Limited trade value makes it why we shouldn't move him. Lowry is definitely better than Barbashev, but not really enough when we have fine players to play 4C. Very replaceable position (though important).</div></div>

Who are these fine 4C players? Sundqvist? Jaskin? Perhaps Musil is further along in his development than we realize, but I don't know that he's the best solution at 4c. Thomas, Kyrou or Fabbri could man the position if we want to go with 4 scoring lines--even I have kicked that idea around--but I think the consensus among Blues fans is that Thomas needs to be playing in a scoring role, getting as many minutes as he can handle. You may be right about Nolan, but I just think we're going to miss Brodziak this year no matter who we put in his role, unless we bring in somebody more capable. I think Lowry is that guy. As for Gunnar, it's just a numbers thing. Dude's got to go. And there's enough teams needing help on D, I think it will happen as soon as he shows he's healthy enough to play.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 7:02 p.m.
Thread: Small deals: NYI, MTL, PHI, WPG, DET, CAR, TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BluesGetTheCup</b></div><div>Jaskin is way better than Nolan. It's not even comparable lol. Kostin projects as a top 6 winger.

Giving up Walman for Mayfield is short sighted though. Might as well see what Fabbri has though. It's silly to give up without knowing.</div></div>

I just have to disagree about Jaskin. I hope he proves me wrong, but he's shown nothing (outside of international play) that makes me think he's more than just a guy. Nolan has contributed to some fantastic Kings teams, and demonstrated his consistency with a great season in Buffalo. So he's not a goal scorer. Not every player has to be, especially in that role.
I don't see the Walman/Mayfield deal as "giving up on Walman". Walman is wasted on this roster. Moving him for a player that will be more useful makes sense--especially when you consider how Schmaltz lost value riding the pine. The Blues have too much defensive depth to keep hording defensemen. At some point, it just becomes a diminishing return.
I don't question what Fabbri has--he has amazing talent. But he also has limited trade value, and lots of health questions. I get why the idea of holding on to him is appealing, but even if he's fully healthy--the Blues are loaded. Having talented wingers like that is a luxury, whereas having a dependable 4th line center is a necessity. It's about what makes the team better right now. We can afford to think in those terms, because we're already set up pretty well for tomorrow, too.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 6:45 p.m.
Thread: Small deals: NYI, MTL, PHI, WPG, DET, CAR, TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BluesGetTheCup</b></div><div>Fabbri + Blais for adam lowry? Why? That makes no sense. Mayfield and Bortuzzo are similar so that doesn't make sense either. Jaskin is a great 4th liner, much better than Nolan and Kostin won't play on the 4th line. Sundqvist sure that's fine. Moving Barbashev makes no sense as he'll play 4th line. I doubt we get a 6th rounder for Thorburn.</div></div>

I think Lowry would be more successful playing a 4th line role for the Blues than Barbashev will. I don't think Fabbri or Blais will amount to much playing for the Blues, so I don't lose sleep dealing them for a player that I think will contribute more to the team's success (not necessarily in points).

I agree that Mayfield and Bortuzzo are similar. I just prefer having one of the two as our 7th defenseman, as opposed to wasting the potential of a young player like Schmaltz. We need to cut him loose.

I think Kostin projects to play a role similar to Maroon's, and he'll play up and down the roster--but I absolutely think he starts his career as just another big body on the 4th line.

I think Jaskin and Nolan are pretty comparable, but I'm valuing Nolan's experience over Jaskin's potential--especially given that I'm starting Kostin on the RW.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 6:27 p.m.
Thread: Small deals: NYI, MTL, PHI, WPG, DET, CAR, TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>You can move thorburn somewhere else. We don’t need him. Funny thing about trades is that the receiving team has needs and aren’t going to just take a player to help you out.</div></div>
I understand that. I do think Thorburn still has value to a team that needs to add a veteran presence with some grit and heart, but I don't imagine his services are in demand. If the Blues weren't so crowded I would prefer they keep him. All I did was look at some eastern conference teams that appeared to need some depth RW players, so it was admittedly a throw of the dart--as were most of those fantasy deals I proposed here. I just think the Blues owe it to him to attempt a trade to a team that will use him, rather than burying him in the minors. It may be that there's simply not a fit for him anymore, but that would be a real pity.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2018 at 1:25 a.m.
Thread: Deals with WPG, DET, CAR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jp_harvey</b></div><div>One thing WPG is NOT trying to do is getting a 36 years old player on the downslope since the last 3 years and definitely not getting any younger..and also overpaid for what he's giving you now. Maybe STL is trying to move him (which is a good idea in order to obtain something in return instead of losing him for nothing), but WPG is surely not the right destination/fit for him, no matter if his father played there before (it really doesn't matter at all). And no teams think Howard is a true #1 goalie. He still have maybe 3 years left in the show, tops. He's a good backup who can help you if your #1 gets hurt for something like 6 weeks, but not a starter G. Bad trade, plain and simple</div></div>

--Steen is 34, not 36. You are probably right that WPG won't want him. It's a moot point, because he probably won't waive his NMC for anybody. My point was to play with what the roster might look like if we somehow miraculously dealt him. Given that all we're asking for is a swap of defensive prospects and a second rounder, I don't think it's a bad deal for WPG, whether they "need" him or not. I think he would pair fantastically with Bryan Little. But we can agree that it is most likely that we'll never know.

--Howard has 1 year remaining on his contract. We really wouldn't care if he had 3 years left or not. We just need him for one, if that, to give Husso a bit more time. No matter how "bad" he may be as a starter, the team would be better off having him rather than keeping Allen. I don't think any trade where we deal Allen and get back a 1 year contract on a serviceable netminder is a "bad deal".
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2018 at 8:14 p.m.
Thread: Deals with WPG, DET, CAR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jp_harvey</b></div><div>Why would STL do that trade with DET?? Best example of a really bad trade. You weaken your G (AND 5 years older) and litterally give away a good prospect/borderline NHLer. HARD NO

Please explain to me why in hell would WPG do that trade for Steen without sending money back? They're already in a cap crunch situation and next year, they need to re-up Wheeler and Myers. You need to think from both organisation perspective when you do those AGM thing...</div></div>

StL would do that because the team gives up in front of Allen, and they're ready to move him if they can find a capable stop gap to give Husso one more year to develop. Howard has one year remaining, which works fine--and he has performed well playing in front of a less than stellar DET defense. I think he would excel in StL--and he certainly wouldn't be a downgrade. As for Barbashev, he was a handy player to have, but barring a slue of injuries, there is nowhere for him on the roster. Thomas is more or less supplanting him. Makes sense to package him and get some value for him now, than bury him in the minors, where he becomes waiver fodder.

WPG may be in a cap crunch situation, but they have a lot of salary off the books, with not everyone returning. They could use a two-way veteran utility forward. Steen can play literally anywhere in the top-9, is excellent on special teams, and his family has history with the franchise. He would be an upgrade over several of the players you mentioned.

Don't misunderstand me--I don't think this scenario is likely. I just don't think it's as far fetched as you are making out. I suspect the Blues are looking to deal him, and there are very few teams for which he would consider waiving his trade protections. I think WPG would be one of them. If so, I think they would find a way to make the salary work.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 26, 2018 at 12:51 a.m.
Thread: Skinner, OReilly, Grabner, Backes, Maroon, Lehner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Riley816</b></div><div>Sabres deal.

Vegas an obvious pass.

Boston close.

Carolina probably too many ufa goalies to take that trade. Skinner should get at least more than 2020 1st and a good prospect at the trade deadline.</div></div>


Sabres: I think it's a fair offer, but I don't think BUF takes it. I'm going to hope for it all the same. Losing Dunn will hurt, but we have depth on LD, and adding a top 6 C is more beneficial than keeping a PP specialist buried on the 3rd pairing.

Vegas: Yes, it's an obvious dump, but Vegas will be looking for exactly those types of players, and they're worth a 3rd.

Boston: They are rumored to want to part ways with Backes. Steen is on a similar contract. Both have NMCs, which is the biggest impediment to the trade. I'm betting Boston sees Steen, Barbashev and a 3rd as a deal they can't turn down. I'm betting Backes would waive his NMC. And I'm betting Steen is ready to seek greener pastures, and would waive to go to a good team like Boston. Only reason I want to do this is to get a guy with some leadership, decent hands, and toughness on Thomas' wing--because he'll need it. Blues have missed Backes sorely.

Carolina: Betting that Allen's crapping the bed last year didn't kill his perceived value, and that the UFA goalies will choose other destinations. Thompson and Walman are "good prospects". In fact, Thompson was our 3rd best forward prospect before the draft (Bokk probably takes that honor now), and he's certainly our most NHL-ready prospect, having played as many games as he did last year. He wasn't put in a scoring role, so his lack of production shouldn't be held against him. Walman was our best defensive prospect until Dunn came to camp last year and knocked everyone's socks off. Like Schmaltz, Walman is a victim of numbers, but his value hasn't yet diminished. And letting Carolina upgrade their 4th round pick to a 1st in 2020, that's a good deal. I honestly don't think anyone else puts a package like that on the table. The question will be, will Skinner waive his NMC to come to StL. If we have RoR locked up, I absolutely think he does.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 24, 2018 at 12:05 a.m.
Thread: JT, trade for Parayko
The Blues need a center and have wanted Kadri for a while, and with his performance in recent years, and his reasonable contract, that's a pretty fair offer. But the Blues aren't going to take that deal. You *might* get them to bite on Nylander. Fact is, while it is true that Blues' fans are notorious for over-rating their players, top-pairing-capable RD defensemen really are in greater demand right now. And, while the Blues are deep on the left, they cannot readily fill in behind Parayko if he's dealt. Carrick is hardly a replacement. And finally, there are other options that won't hurt as bad to acquire. The Blues, reportedly, are still looking to deal for O'Reilly and Skinner--and they won't be trading Parayko to do it. If I'm Doug Armstrong, I move Parayko for no one not named Draisatl. Edmonton won't want to do that, just as you wouldn't want to offer Nylander, or Marner. Sorry, but I don't think he's a realistic target.
I will say, though: that's a scary fantasy team you've assembled there.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 22, 2018 at 7:01 a.m.
Thread: Parayko?
This keeps getting bandied about--and I'm guilty too--but the only player on Edmonton that is going to realistically pry loose Parayko is Draisatl. If you're not content with that, that's understandable. But it's too good a hockey trade to not consider. That's why it keeps popping up. It's not a perfect trade for either team, but it addresses major issues for both teams. It would necessitate additional moves, too. The Blues would have to find another decent RHD for the second pairing (perhaps Green?). Nurse would be a good upgrade for one of Bouwmeester or Gunnarsson, but unless one of them gets moved, there's really nowhere on the left side for the Blues to play him.
Keep your first, tack on Draisatl, and we'll consider doing:
Draisatl and Nurse for Parayko, Barbashev, Gunnarsson and a 2nd.
Or just make it Draisatl for Parayko and a 3rd.
Otherwise, no thanks. You're probably better off just signing Green, assuming you don't get Karlsson.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2018 at 1:31 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2018 at 1:58 a.m.
Thread: Kovalchuk, O'Reilly, Skinner and Grubauer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wagsnags</b></div><div>Just one question for you..... switch it around and your team was dealing a legit center to a team that you know values him as their #1 Center would you really accept what is being offered....</div></div>
The offer is based on the premise that they (reportedly) want Allen; that Sobotka fills an immediate need (this is a guess, perhaps erroneous); that Schmaltz gives Buffalo much-needed depth at RHD (they're a hot commodity right now); and that 1st round picks are more highly coveted in this draft than they have ever been. If that's the case, I think it's a reasonable offer for an excellent center whose contract is a wee bit high.
As for putting the shoe on the other foot, Doug Armstrong is wildly inconsistent. I know nothing about Botteril. We got Troy Brouwer, a 4th string goalie we didn't bother resigning, and a 3rd round pick for TJ Oshie. And then we got Brayden Schenn for a cap dump and two firsts. In the case of Oshie, there were hard feelings between TJ and Hitchcock that was becoming a distraction. DA was motivated to move him, so he took a terrible offer.
I think Botteril is motivated to sell. RoR is a professional, but he's more or less announced that he wants to move on. He can stay, but it will become a distraction. There will be plenty of bids for him. Given the market, those offers will probably exceed what I've offered here. But if it's true that Buffalo wants Allen, could use Sobotka, needs a player like Schmaltz, and wants that 1st rounder, yeah--I guess it all depends on how motivated Botteril really is.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2018 at 1:41 a.m.
Thread: Kovy and Barkov
Parayko should not be traded for anyone not named Draisatl.
Doug Armstrong has effectively said that Kyrou and Thomas will not be traded.
Thompson I would deal for the right return, perhaps packaged with a 1st, a defensive prospect, and a roster player for a center. But the Blues didn't deal him for Hoffman, before all his drama hit the fan, and the Blues really wanted Hoffman at the time. Unlikely Thompson goes anywhere.
Kostin might be expendable in the right situation, but he hasn't really established his value yet.
Barkov, while great, would not be worth the assets he would cost.
Gunnarsson is on IR, not sure he can be traded. J-Bo will likely be back in time to start the season. No way you get full value cap relief on his contract.
Why waste Kovalchuk on LW? We need right hand shooters on the right side, desperately.
I think there are better options than Vanek.
And why would Carlson sign with the Blues, just to play second fiddle to Pietrangelo? He's going to want to go somewhere he'll be guaranteed 1st line minutes.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 14, 2018 at 7:26 a.m.
Thread: StL All-In, Seriously OP Roster, with RoR, Tavares, Draisatl, Skinner and Grabne
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>All in??? If that consists of virtually no defense then sure. Edmundson should not play top line D. Get someone less than Draisaitl. Because Edmonton always wants ******** overpay for him.</div></div>
Edmundson is our second best defender, and it's not even close. Had he not broken his forearm, Blues would have made the playoffs for sure.
I agree those second and third defensive pairings wouldn't put up many points (though I expect Dunn to have a monster year), but the idea is to have a quick defense that is miserable to play against. And with an offense that dynamic, they won't spend much time on defense anyway.
As for Draisatl, Edmonton covets Parayko. The proposed offer might not do it, but it's not an overpay, and it would at least start the conversation.
This team would be a handful for everybody.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 9, 2018 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread: Hoffman, Ryan, Skinner, O'Reilly, Grabner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>The Sabres have 6 NHLers LHD under the age of 28 and 3 RHD. Walman has to beat out Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Guhle, Pilot and Beaulieu, none of which I can see him beating. They are also full up on bottom 6 forwards and aren’t building a power forward team. That’s why players like Bailey, Baptiste, and Fasching are lost. Both Berglund and Kostin don’t fit. Berglund had like a third of the points ROR had. The most valuable piece is the late 1st. So it may impress St. Louis, but it doesn’t come close for Buffalo, you’re not giving them anything they need.</div></div>

Tell me if you think that's any better. The Ottowa deal isn't nearly so attractive now, but taking on Hoffman and Ryan's salary (even with that much retained) has to be worth something.
Buffalo is getting the Blues' top RW prospect, a high end LW/C who's returning from injury, a highly regarded collegiate RD just starting his NHL career, and a 2019 1st.
Not sure what Carolina makes of that offer.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 9, 2018 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread: Hoffman, Ryan, Skinner, O'Reilly, Grabner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>The Sabres have 6 NHLers LHD under the age of 28 and 3 RHD. Walman has to beat out Dahlin, McCabe, Scandella, Guhle, Pilot and Beaulieu, none of which I can see him beating. They are also full up on bottom 6 forwards and aren’t building a power forward team. That’s why players like Bailey, Baptiste, and Fasching are lost. Both Berglund and Kostin don’t fit. Berglund had like a third of the points ROR had. The most valuable piece is the late 1st. So it may impress St. Louis, but it doesn’t come close for Buffalo, you’re not giving them anything they need.</div></div>

Thanks for the thoughtful critique. You convinced me that I need to go back to the drawing board, and I will take your analysis into consideration.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 9, 2018 at 4:17 a.m.
Thread: Hoffman, Ryan, Skinner, O'Reilly, Grabner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>why are all the teams sending picks back to St. Louis. That ROR trade doesnt even move the needle. Are they supposed to be impressed by Berglund?</div></div>
These proposals never thrill everybody. I know I have a tendency to over-value the players on my favorite team, same as everyone. But I genuinely believe that's as competitive an offer as Buffalo is likely to get for RoR. No, I don't believe they will be "impressed" with Berglund. But he's not chump change or a mere salary dump--Berglund is one of the better 3Cs in the league, and he can play on either wing, too. Kostin is one of the Blues top forward prospects, who projects to be a top-6 power forward. Physically, he is very much NHL-ready. Walman is one of the Blues top defensive prospects, and was expected to make the team last year, but had a bad camp and got beat out by Dunn. Now he's stuck on the depth chart and will likely lose value over time if that remains the case, like with Schmaltz--but that doesn't diminish his upside, ability or current value. And the 2019 1st, on top of all that? RoR is coveted, and you may get several comparable offers, but nobody is going to offer better.