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wojohawk

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Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: canadiens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>I don’t disagree with anything you said however, the question for me comes down to how can the Hawks get the best value for the $4.45m for taking on Dvorak’s contract.

You can make the deal as proposed and end up with an increased cap hit of $4.45m (assuming Entwistle &amp; Barton’s next deals are comparable) for Dvorak and Barron. Or you refuse the deal and sign someone like Chatfield, probably for less than the $4.45m you are paying Dvorak. In this scenario you end up with Chatfield, Entwistle’s RFA rights and probably about $1.5m in cap space. You probably also have Chatfield for a couple of additional seasons. This seems like a better option to me.

Now if Montreal throws in a 3rd round pick…</div></div>

Chatfield is 28 and absolutley no mystery that he is a bottom pairing guy that has zero chance of being around when the Hawks turn the corner. Barron played 18 minutes a game this season as a 22 year old and is certainly the correct age to have a chance to be a part of better days in 2 or 3 seasons. Barron at least gives you the illusion of some chance of being a middle pairing guy and more than likely at worst a better bottom pair guy than Chatfield. 3rd round picks to "win" a trade at this point are hardly where I would draw the red line....we have more picks already than we will have roster spots in the pros and at some point need to consolidate what we have into better picks not add more middling ones. Just a guess that when Habs fans reply to this, they are the ones that will want a mid round pick to "even" up this trade.

Dvorak wins draws at a mid 50's clip and PK's...the sort of thing contendars try to add depth around at the deadline assuming he can stay healthy for once. The 3rd you want has a chance to come from moving Dvorak at the TDL.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 4:46 p.m.
Thread: Not Far Fetched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SociallyHawkward</b></div><div>I don't see how people keep saying this about Lee. What am I missing? The cost to dump 14 mil in cap is easily a first. He only got 37 points last season. He has a 15 team NTC. Why would the hawks give NYI a discount by sending them a 2nd or Donato?</div></div>

While he had an off year, it was not THAT bad and he is not a completely useless player where his entire contract should be considered a dump. Put it this way, if Lee were a UFA I suspect he could command a contract in the 3-4 million range with the trick being is someone willing to give him that 2nd year. Hell....we just gave an older 37 point player 4.5x 2 years. Cost to dump Lee should be a late 1st or pair of 2nds and the Isles may chose to keep him
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 12:35 p.m.
Thread: Adding another 1st round pick and Necas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Walhstrom is into bust territory at this point so not going to be highly valued as a part of any trade which is why the Islanders may be better off keeping him.

Moving Lee will cost a 1st or at (2) 2nds, without anything going back.</div></div>

Agree on a (late 1st) or 2 2nd's. Lee is not a complete dump as he can still play some, but he is overpaid 3-4 million depending on if you think his game will decline even more at his age over the next 2 seasons. The net of the draft picks proposed here is a late 1st....which again is in the range of fair. Donato is a guy likely to give you Lee production for less than a 1/3rd of the cap hit at an age where you don;t have to worry about a rapid decline. Totally agree on Wahlstrom, unless you simply want to do the kid a favor with a change of scenery you might as well keep hoping he blooms late and not give up.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 12:14 p.m.
Thread: Kings retool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fangm</b></div><div>This is why there is a pretty good chance we see something like PLD + Clarke + 1st for Marner.

It might seem like an overpay for Marner but from a PR standpoint it's a great way to sneak out of the PLD contract and keep the heat off of Blake.[/quo<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fangm</b></div><div>This is why there is a pretty good chance we see something like PLD + Clarke + 1st for Marner.

It might seem like an overpay for Marner but from a PR standpoint it's a great way to sneak out of the PLD contract and keep the heat off of Blake.</div></div>

If I were a Kings fan and this was how you slip out of the PLD debacle, I would be even more pissed as it makes it even worse to lose multiple trades for the same player (as a Hawks fan I know all to well losing 3 Saad trades). Trading a 21 RHD you used a top 10 draft pick for, another 1st to dump PLD and a year of Marner (and the privledge of (over)paying him 12 million per) seems like doubling down on a losing hand.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 5:39 p.m.
Thread: Hawks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Burnout</b></div><div>Considering how highly regarded Silayev, Lindstrom and Dickinson are reported to be among scouts (to say nothing of other top draft prospects) and the lack of consensus after Celebrini, I'd be shocked if any team cared to entice Chicago into trading down.

Hell, Soundofhockey's value chart (and other charts) don't hold up every draft, it depends on how prospects are viewed. Like, I guarantee you the cost to move up in the top 4 in 2023 was much higher than average and the cost was much lower in 2022.</div></div>

The premise is Montreal (over)values Demidov highly. There is a pretty strong concensus that Demidov is a clear cut #2 and if you need a forward (which Montreal appears to way more than a D) that there is a sizeable gap between him and Lindstrom who'e injury questions (a back verses a knee) are way scarier than any with Demidov. In the end, I think the Hawks would be pretty happy to draft Demidov and just tried to spell out a scenerio where they could potentially get moved off that spot.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10 at 5:44 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 10 at 2:02 p.m.
Thread: I love Demidov
I like some of the other deals I've seen where the '25 1st gets replaced with Roy or Beck and the 2nd going back from the Hawks is not involved. In this deal, I would want a better chance of getting '25 first and not having it pushed into '26. Maybe making it an Hawks choice of Calgary pick OR the Montreal first with top 10-12 protection?

Ideally #2 + Vancouver 2nd for #5 + Winnipeg 1st + 1 of Roy or Beck + Barron I like Demidov and would be happy if the Hawks pick him. To pass on Demidov and Levshunov, I want a compelling overpay like this to do it. Roy/Beck plug the gapping whole at RW and Barron a RD to fill the gap while we wait for Rinzel. Not sure any of these become top 6 or top 4 types, but they should be middle 6 and bottom pairing to plug major holes in the Hawk prospect pool while we wait for others to develop. At #5....Parekh as a RHD that projects to a PP1 guy check 2 major boxes missing in the otherwise good Hawk D prospect pool. The Winnipeg and Tampa picks and a pair each of 2nds and 3rds give us the ammo to move up if we want or 6 swings at addressing some forward prospect depth.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9 at 4:13 p.m.
Thread: Pick Values in Trade Downs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I have never heard of sound of hockey.

But the whole point of this exercise was to ignore my gut was telling and jump at the data.

Would have to back test the #.</div></div>

Whenever I have played with pick values, most point me to sound of hockey as the chart that is most realistic and I tend to agree. Most other models overvalue later picks particularly late 2nd and certainly later. For example, if you use the Athletic chart, it values early 3rds at 1 pt and a late 1st at 3 (or as low as 2.7 for #32OA). I am pretty confident no one is ever trading even the lowest 1st for three 3rds. By contrast, the sound of hockey would require 9.5 of the highest 3rds to get the #32 OA. That part of their model makes complete sense intuitively if you conceed that most meaningful NHL players come out of the 1st or 2nd round and the odds are pretty long for lesser picks.