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NHLfan10506

Member Since
May 5, 2019
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New Jersey Devils
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Forum: Armchair-GM15 hours ago
Thread: Pick Values in Trade Downs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I have never heard of sound of hockey.

But the whole point of this exercise was to ignore my gut was telling and jump at the data.

Would have to back test the #.</div></div>

Whenever I have played with pick values, most point me to sound of hockey as the chart that is most realistic and I tend to agree. Most other models overvalue later picks particularly late 2nd and certainly later. For example, if you use the Athletic chart, it values early 3rds at 1 pt and a late 1st at 3 (or as low as 2.7 for #32OA). I am pretty confident no one is ever trading even the lowest 1st for three 3rds. By contrast, the sound of hockey would require 9.5 of the highest 3rds to get the #32 OA. That part of their model makes complete sense intuitively if you conceed that most meaningful NHL players come out of the 1st or 2nd round and the odds are pretty long for lesser picks.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:25 p.m.
Thread: Big off season s-wings Holtz
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Holtz is tricky one to evaluate since Lindy stuck him on 4th line with wither away. But his scoring rates, even without much PP time or playing with Hughes or Hischier, were still promising. The shot is nasty. The play-making has its moments, but not consistent. There are still some wrinkles to iron out, such as puck protection in transition. But with another year on ELC, there is no pressing need to move him.

NJD only trade Holtz if it returns (a) an upgrade on blueline; (b) a goalie; (c) anyone named Moritz; in no particular order.</div></div>

Totally a fair assessment and I appreciate it! You can't have mortiz tho aha

I felt odd throwing Cleveland in there because obviously you guys have Nemec Hughes and Hamilton on the backend and that's unreal. I put him in there moreso as a "hey we're gonna need some guys to play in that 4-6 role in the future, can't hurt to have one of those in the pipeline outside of Casey"

Ultimately I think you are right, they shouldn't be in the rush to move holtz cuz he does look promising. This was moreso a scenario where team and player decide a fresh start is needed.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 9:09 p.m.
Thread: If I am Grier I do this everyday of the week
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Letsgosharks</b></div><div>I don’t rly see the need tbh ig without couture it would make sense for him to mentor, but it’s not like we make the playoffs next szn and if we want to move him at the deadline we need a third party team to eat salary</div></div>

Why does San Jose even think this way?
We want a mentor and a good voice for another year of development for the kids, and for many their first year. Johns a solid veteran. We aren’t trading for him to trade him or be a playoff team, and Couture is a non factor right now.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>Sens don’t need more quantity . They have 2 1sts and an early 2nd and can move Chychrun and Branny if they wanted more picks.

They need to take the highest RD potential or highest F potential</div></div>

Don’t necessarily disagree but I also foresee the Sens considering a OFD isn’t the most important piece. They can get potentially someone nearly just as good at 13. Iginla could also be at 13 in some world.

Then you also get nearly a late first with the devils pick. I picked the Sens because it’s plausible, not likely but worth playing around with.

Utah won’t move down unless they get a star imo.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I guess it is better than paying him $13m x 7…</div></div>

Haha yup. If only we navigated the [ Kane/ Pavelski ] + EK65 Saga better.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 2:06 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 3:48 p.m.
Thread: Iginla Was Unreal
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>No. I like the way Iginla wins board battles and plays big and he also has more size and he’s very competitive</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Would you take Eiserman over Iginla?</div></div>

I've got basically three top tiers I think:
Tier 1: Celebrini
Tier 2: Iginla, Eiserman, Demidov, Levshunov, Lindstrom
Tier 3: Buium, Dickinson, Parekh, Helenius, Silayev, Yakemchuk

I think Iginla was the most consistently tenacious player on the ice. I really liked that. Puck retrievals and board play were excellent, not to mention the offensive talent which is lights out. Good awareness in his own end as well. He frequently QB'd the coverage and release designs on dzone draws. I think he's a much smarter player than he's been given credit for. I'm thinking he'll be a more offensively gifted Adrian Kempe.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 5:25 p.m.