Lilly can absolutely play in the playoffs...

But you are right... And the Leafs are wrong for not blowing it up

Don’t see Utah being the team to go in on Liljegren. They have 5 defence men coming off as RFAs in Moser, Durzi, Valimaki, Soderstrom, and Kesselring. They will probably add a veteran through the UFA market.

Now I could be wrong about this one, but I don’t see Chicago buying Robertson either. MAYBE they go for another veteran out of free agency to play in the top 6, but another young left winger in Robertson is unlikely imo. Also their top 2 center men are both relatively small, so I am thinking they would rather a guy with size. Again, this one I could be wrong about, but that’s what I think.

That is the most expensive third line ive ever seen. If the leafs are that bad they have players making that much that need to be third liners those players need to be moved i not paying guys 11 mil to play on the thrd line minutes.

Hawks aren't going to likely give up a 2nd for Robertson. Maybe a 3rd or 4th but doesn't really move the needle for Chicago's rebuild

Easier said then done since all 5 of their core players hold full trade protection now, but even if they can trade someone it needs to make sense. Let's just assume trade protection isn't an issue and look at the trading each guy.

Matthews - He'll get the biggest return, but trading him also has the biggest potential for being a lost trade. In terms of roster construction, he's the most important player out of the 5 as their 1C, so even if they can fill a ton of other holes, they'll have a giant one down the middle. Simple put he's not going anywhere.

Tavares - If they Leafs retain like 3M, they could probably get out from his contract, and get some decent value. They would need a 2C replacement which they could perhaps get in Chandler Stephenson and save like 2M on the season. They could also hope Domi could hold down the 2C role and worry about it down the road if it becomes an issue. If they are unable to trade him, he might just be phased out of the core and dropped from the team entirely even if he's an effective player still. They could focus on the 2C spot over top 4 D in the off-season but that's probably going to be viewed as more of the same. Moving Tavares alone should give them enough flexibility to make significant changes and moving their captain (or making him an alternate) might be the shakeup that the locker room needs.

Nylander - The Leafs have two first-line right-wingers, making it an area of strength, so they could look to restructure their core by moving one of them. Nylander being their most consistent playoff performer, so if they do trade him it better be for a young top 2 D (like Power or Seider) or a similar aged RHD (like Ekblad) or perhaps a young 2C (that is proven) , chances of any of those happening are slim to none so he should be considered safe. If he was moved, he also should not be the only one.

Marner- He has been the opposite of Nylander in the playoffs, and he's likely to command 0.5-1M more than Nylander on an extension. He is the more complete player of the two and higher producer but I do think he's less of an offensive threat even if he produces more. Trading him and getting good value out of him would likely be challenging but it's probably the most logical move if there is a good deal to be made, and could be a stand-alone move. Marner is not a player that you just trade for pennies on the dollar for cap space to spend in free agency.

Rielly - The Leafs' defense is the area that needs the most work, so moving Rielly would likely be a non-starter unless the Leafs. He's on a team friendly-deal, so trading him would only make sense with the move of another core player as well, and only if they are ending up with a top 2 D and two additional top 4 D in the end (i.e., not counting McCabe).

Hawks have zero need or want to move a 2nd for Robertson. We have enough small skilled forwards

Marner's the guy that you trade... Like you said, he's comparable to Nylander but worse in the playoffs and will ask for more... So why keep him and instead go get another top 4 defensemen that you desperately need...

The Leafs need two top 4 D or (a top 2 + top 4) but you're not just going to trade him for cap to sign any two Top 4 UFA D-men because 1) will be costly and 2) not all of them are going to make an impact by their own play alone. So, need to see what he can get on the trade market, and if there's something reasonable, need to convince him that it's best for all parties to part ways. Ideally, you get back a top-20 or 25 defender back (worst case top-50) but you need to think of longevity. A guy like Pietrangelo is exactly what the Leafs have been looking for for years, but he's now 34. Trading Marner for him straight up for example would be a huge mistake, especially if you aren't getting a legit long-term replacement for Marner in the top-6 in some other way. Need to remember that scoring has been a problem for the Leafs in the playoffs as well, so while Pietrangelo could probably help make the PP more effective, 5v5 scoring matters too. So, if they can trade Marner + some other assets and end up with Pietrangelo + Konecny (and extend him) for example that is worth considering depending. In the end, need to come out as a better team.

You're looking way too deep into this...

Most top defensemen are drafted via the draft...

Out of the top 4 that we know Toronto needs... Pesce is a guy that can be signed in UFA (so there's 1 guy), you then draft a Dickinson/Parekh, etc. from the assets of a Marner trade (or the pick being traded outright)... It should take them roughly a year to do the neccesities of developing before they can crack the roster, buying you cap space to resign Bert/Domi and another top 4 defensemen in FA while keeping assets...

So, while going after a top 20-25 defensemen is tough and not a logical solution... You 100% can go into the draft, get one of those guys... And sign a Montour/Pesce to serve as solid top 4 pieces alongside Mo and McCabe, at the same cap hit as Marner

I'm just saying the ideal is a top 20-25. You responded before I could add that you want to get at least a top 50 defender which both Montour and Pesce fall under, and last year Montour was considered top 20-25 by some. Those two are good targets, the Leafs would need to sign one of them first, then trade Marner (or keep him). As for drafting a defender with top-2 potential or top-2 upside, I don't think any of the teams that Marner would consider would be willing to give up their top-12 pick for Marner. I would love for the Leafs to draft Dickinson though, I think he'll be the real deal.

Whoa... new here, happy to see this generated useful discussion.

Liljegren is an OK #4/5 guy for many teams in the league, and could play in the playoffs if he's in the Pacific or Metro div. He's at personal fault for too many GA in the playoffs -- watch the Marchand goal from G3 - https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/bos-vs-tor/2024/04/24/2023030123. He's worth a late 2 or 3 though, still cheap could get better, just not what the buds need right now.

Robertson deal is more about the Leafs moving him on. I feel like Liljegren he's not quite damaged goods and has value still. 22 and will probably score 20G with a real opportunity. Seems like a guy who will happily put 20G and 50P for non-playoff teams for several years. Someone would probably give a late 2 for him.

This line combo is meant to have 3 "first" lines, getting relatively even minutes. I think it's what Keefe would have rolled with had they moved on. It's a matchup nightmare. Other issues aside, inability to escape or overcome D matchups has really caused them problems. Since I still believe all 4 will be back I hope they sign another C (or resign Domi) to use this in playoffs next year.

Could discuss a Marner deal all day but that's not what this is about. I fully expect them to ask, and for him to say no, then for them to sign him to a matching Nylander extension 2 weeks later -- simply because they don't want to lose the asset for nothing - but it won't have a full NMC. He plays out this year and then could be moved next summer if he chokes again.

** Would welcome a Dickenson centered trade for Marner but obviously has to be on the clock at the draft or shortly after the pick. Too much with the NTC waiving most likely. If he waives, I think he heads to non-traditional market to escape the media, but I don't think he needs to contend immediately -- so Utah looks reasonable to me - and I would ask for Conner Geekie+ in return.

On the same note, nothing happens with JT this year (I doubt they even ask him waive). If he walks next summer, fine. If he wants to stay it's 2/3 years at around 5M next summer
, assuming he can still outskate Reaves - even if he can't skate, he is still good, just not worth his contract. If he loses the C this year that's like a code for they actually asked him to waive and he said no.

Agreed