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Post-lottery off-season prediction

Created by: CertifiedAverage
Team: 2024-25 Columbus Blue Jackets
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 16, 2024
Published: May 8, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Making a prediction for the off-season after the lottery. Not much has changed.

First off, the draft:
- I believe it will go Celebrini, Demidov and Levshunov, in which case I predict the Blue Jackets pick Lindstrom.
- Boqvist is traded.
- Bean too if anyone wants him. I don't know if the Flyers would be interested, Columbus'll basically take what they can get for him.

With regards to the Laine situation, I remain hopeful that he comes back and re-discovers his game next season.

Merzlikins is probably bought out, but I wanted to think about where he could go with retention. Ottawa? Carolina? LA? I sent him to Detroit, but it's basically any team that wants him. In general, if they can trade him at 50 % retained and not have to pay too much or even get something for it, I think they should. Why? Here is the difference in million dollars between retaining on him and buying him out (positive values mean that the retained cap hit is larger than the buyout cap hit):
24/25: +1.550
25/26: +1.075
26/27: -0.225
27/28–29/30: -1.750
2024/25 doesn't really matter. They have plenty of cap space and won't make the playoffs. 25/26 they maybe make some big move. Based on a previous ACGM I made, the CBJ could sign a player like Draisaitl for $13,500,000 (so basically a worst case scenario from a cap perspective) and still have around $4,500,000 in cap space with a Merzlikins buyout. So they still have some flexibility that year. After that, the cap hit is lower if they retain on him rather than buy him out. So I think retaining is just better.

To replace him, they bring in a veteran G like David Rittich on a one-year deal, letting Greaves get some more starts in the AHL.

The GM makes no big moves, but takes a year to assess. With Laine coming back, he only signs a veteran defensive LD to give them some size and strengthen the defense and PK.

Mateychuk spends the year in the AHL until Provorov is dealt at the TDL, at which point he is brought up.

Jiricek improves his skating and finally becomes an NHL regular.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$900,000
2$2,400,000
2$2,305,000
3$900,000
1$800,000
2$2,260,000
2$1,500,000
5$6,405,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$4,000,000
1$1,000,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Lindstrom, Cayden
3$950,000
Trades
1.
CBJ
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (CBJ)
  2. 2024 5th round pick (VGK)
PHI
  1. Bean, Jake [RFA Rights]
  2. 2025 2nd round pick (CBJ)
2.
CBJ
  1. 2024 2nd round pick (NSH)
NSH
  1. Boqvist, Adam
  2. 2024 4th round pick (CBJ)
3.
CBJ
  1. 2024 5th round pick (DET)
DET
  1. Merzlikins, Elvis ($2,700,000 retained)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the DET
Logo of the CBJ
2025
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the VGK
2026
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the CBJ
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$87,700,000$80,463,333$0$4,200,000$7,236,667
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,750,000$9,750,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$3,750,000$3,750,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$6,405,000$6,405,000
RW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,400,000$2,400,000
LW, C
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,200,000$3M)
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$8,700,000$8,700,000
C, RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, C, RW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$925,000$925,000
LW, C, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,305,000$2,305,000
RW, LW
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,260,000$2,260,000
C
RFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$800,000$800,000
RW, LW
RFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$9,583,333$9,583,333
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,050,000$1,050,000
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,725,000$4,725,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 1
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD
UFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$918,333$918,333 (Performance Bonus$1,000,000$1M)
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$900,000$900,000
LD/RD
UFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RW, C
UFA - 1

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May 8 at 9:10 a.m.
#1
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I'm gonna give a little counter offer for the wings trade. Husso 50% retained and a 4th for Merzlikins 50% retained and a 3rd. Wings get a project with Merlikins who can help ease Cossa's transition to the NHL and Columbus gets a goalie back for this year and then rid themselves of bad goalie contracts after this season. Wings get the higher pick because Merlikins is a longer comittment.
squashmaple, Indy, CertifiedAverage and 2 others liked this.
May 8 at 9:23 a.m.
#2
Flyers
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So Flyers are getting Jake Bean for a 5th rounder and you are deferring 2024 2nd until 2025?
May 8 at 9:27 a.m.
#3
Thread Starter
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Edited May 8 at 1:42 p.m.
Quoting: lottsie10
I'm gonna give a little counter offer for the wings trade. Husso 50% retained and a 4th for Merzlikins 50% retained and a 3rd. Wings get a project with Merlikins who can help ease Cossa's transition to the NHL and Columbus gets a goalie back for this year and then rid themselves of bad goalie contracts after this season. Wings get the higher pick because Merlikins is a longer comittment.

I'd certainly be open to it. It basically would depend on what offers CBJ had on the table.

Quoting: Renegade_H
So Flyers are getting Jake Bean for a 5th rounder and you are deferring 2024 2nd until 2025?

Yes.
May 8 at 9:53 a.m.
#4
Buffbry
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I do think there could he a deal between wings and cbj for Elvis and husso somehow
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May 8 at 11:51 a.m.
#5
Indy
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Quoting: lottsie10
I'm gonna give a little counter offer for the wings trade. Husso 50% retained and a 4th for Merzlikins 50% retained and a 3rd. Wings get a project with Merlikins who can help ease Cossa's transition to the NHL and Columbus gets a goalie back for this year and then rid themselves of bad goalie contracts after this season. Wings get the higher pick because Merlikins is a longer comittment.


I…I am actually ok with this trade personally
May 8 at 12:45 p.m.
#6
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Yeah flyers are declining that
May 8 at 1:30 p.m.
#7
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Well, no need to make an ACGM today, this is basically exactly what I'd do. Nicely done!

Quoting: lottsie10
I'm gonna give a little counter offer for the wings trade. Husso 50% retained and a 4th for Merzlikins 50% retained and a 3rd. Wings get a project with Merlikins who can help ease Cossa's transition to the NHL and Columbus gets a goalie back for this year and then rid themselves of bad goalie contracts after this season. Wings get the higher pick because Merlikins is a longer comittment.


I like this a lot. Basically no significant assets lost or gained, and Columbus would be looking to sign a vet goalie anyway (a la Rittich) to have 2/3 of Tarasov/Greaves/Vet in the NHL at any given time. If that were offered, I'd just take it. I doubt CBJ are getting anything for Elvis even half-retained.
CertifiedAverage liked this.
May 8 at 1:33 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: CaseyFlyman
Well, no need to make an ACGM today, this is basically exactly what I'd do. Nicely done!



I like this a lot. Basically no significant assets lost or gained, and Columbus would be looking to sign a vet goalie anyway (a la Rittich) to have 2/3 of Tarasov/Greaves/Vet in the NHL at any given time. If that were offered, I'd just take it. I doubt CBJ are getting anything for Elvis even half-retained.


Thanks! I just think this kinda works out for both teams. Gets CBJ out of a bad situation and worst case scenario for detroit, they trade him retained again at aome point in the final two years and only really have to eat like $1 million in cap
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May 8 at 4:34 p.m.
#9
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As others have said, Detroit would have to send Husso back in any deal involving Elvis
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May 9 at 5:30 p.m.
#10
Indy
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Quoting: AmeriCanadian
As others have said, Detroit would have to send Husso back in any deal involving Elvis


I think Columbus side would be ok with this too.
 
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