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CaseyFlyman

Member Since
Sep. 7, 2018
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Columbus Blue Jackets
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Boston Bruins
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Forum: Armchair-GM60 minutes ago
Thread: is this enough comlubus fan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Blazingbat11</b></div><div>Here's the thing, <strong>A LOT</strong> of gamesmanship will go on from now until draft selections.

If MTL has any indication that CBJ aren't taking Lindstrom, then there's zero point in doing this trade. Just roll the dice and take him at 5th overall. Not to mention that MTL will probably have other targets if he's not available. On the other end, if CBJ <strong>do</strong> intend on picking Lindstrom and identify him as their guy, then they just keep the pick regardless of what's being offered (unless a MASSIVE overpay if offered, and this proposed deal isn't enough).
Only way this deal works is if whoever is calling the shots in CBJ, puts on show about taking Lindstrom with zero intention of picking him, to try and leverage value from MTL (highly unlikely imo). On the flip side of that, If CBJ want Lindstrom, and want to make sure MTL don't trade up for him, they'll throw a "red herring" and pitch that they aren't interested in him. This would lead MTL to believe he'd be available at #5 and make no attempt to move up.....again, <strong>A LOT</strong> of gamesmanship.

And this is with just Lindstrom being a target. You can add 100 more variables with the different lists of targets both CBJ and MTL will have. And situations like "what if Levshunov or Demidov are still on the board?" "What if CHI or ANA go off the board or trade down with other teams?" etc...</div></div>

Yeah I agree 100%, there's just so many variables, and so many unlikely ones, that I'd have a hard time believing we'd see a pick swap. Is it in the realm of possibility, and is the proposed value here close? Sure. I think that's the extend of the discussion we can have on a fantasy site.

It's a fun proposal, though, I've had a good time talking about it! Is it June yet?
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: how much for the russians
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>I think I’d rather just get lindstrom if he’s at 4OA. That size and speed would be deadly in the playoffs</div></div>

I agree, but I wouldn't be mad if we traded down for this package in this specific unlikely scenario. There'd be a lot of other moving parts, obviously.

I'm a huge fan of Sillinger, and I think he would be a fine 2C and incredible 3C, so I think getting that 2C of the future is more of a luxury than getting another RD. The right side looks pretty weak outside of Jiricek, and given Severson and Gudbranson are already approaching the ends of their primes, getting a RD that projects to be a solid, well-rounded 2RD long-term is a necessity IMO (unless you think Boqvist is that guy).

I'd imagine if we made this trade, we're not making most of those picks...they'd be traded or packaged for upgrades at more positions of need, like 2C/Wing/Goaltender, etc.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: is this enough comlubus fan
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Habs_22_14_20</b></div><div>It’s pretty unrealistic his scenario, if CBJ want Lindstrom, they will take him. If they target a dman, they will draft a dman and MTL will pick Lindstrom. But MTL aren’t trading a bunch of future just to get THEIR guy.</div></div>

Isn't that the premise of this though? I think if Lindstrom is available, CBJ take him...unless Montreal has identified him as their guy and are willing to give up a huge package of futures to land him, in which case Columbus just takes BPA (likely a D-man). I also think it's unrealistic, but figured I'd at least answer the prompt.

Much like I said on all those KJ to MTL trade proposals: we aren't good trading partners. We have similar things, have similar needs, and have similar timelines to compete.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 hours ago
Thread: how much for the russians
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FloppyBiscuit</b></div><div>I kind of figured it'd have to be a deal they couldn't say no to. I was hoping to surround Kaprizov with some more Russians, but to get all three would probably take more than we're willing to give. Maybe something along the lines of swapping Boldy for Laine in the trade would make it more appealing.</div></div>

There's two more realistic scenarios I could see if the goal is just to surround Kaprizov with additional talented Russians.

1) Chinakhov - Rossi swap. I'd propose one-for-one, since Chinakhov should break out very soon, but just hasn't gotten much chance given the crowded CBJ forward room. CBJ would then have a Fantilli - Rossi - Sillinger - Kuraly/LDBB center depth long term, and they'd be more likely to take the best defenseman available in the draft at 4OA.

2) Less likely, but: on the draft floor, if Demidov falls to 4OA, I'd be open to Columbus trading down to 13OA and picking someone like Yakemchuk if he's still available. PuckPedia puts equal pick value for 4OA at ~13OA + 14OA + 135OA (5th-round), so it would definitely be for Minnesota's 1st next year, or an excellent prospect, and possibly more. Given that pick is a year later, and could be anywhere (hopefully in the late 20s/early 30s, I like MN), I'd propose 13OA, 2024 MIN 2nd, 2024 MIN 5th, and the 2025 MIN 1st.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 hours ago
Thread: Magic Mitch Disappears
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Justinv62</b></div><div>My argument is that Marner is a 100 point player who is strong defensively whether you trust him in the playoffs or not. He's the guy who gets you to the playoffs. Johnson is a good young player and the 4th pick is valuable but those are never guaranteed and the chance either one becomes a top 10 scorer in the NHL is not super high. Marner is going to garner a lot. Look at what Eichel went for coming off injury or Ryan O'Reilly to Buffalo.</div></div>

He's an excellent player...but he's also a ghost in the playoffs, hasn't played significant time without stellar linemates, and is already 27 and a UFA at year's end next year. His next deal is north of $10M and probably takes him until he's 36. That's not something Columbus, whose window to compete doesn't open until 2025-26 at the earliest, should be taking on.

And, most importantly...he's got a full NMC. Players with a full NMC don't waive it carte blanche, if they're asked to waive by a GM they give them a list of teams they'd actually accept a trade to, which will be short. The overlap of the Venn diagram for teams that <em>can </em>take Marner and teams Marner would waive for...is very small, in all likelihood. He's not going to fetch an elite forward with a good contract return, he'll probably fetch a top-6 forward rental return.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 hours ago
Thread: Demidov available at 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Montreal1st</b></div><div>Wonder if Columbus take Demidov or a defenseman, both teams seem to appreciate Russian players so that is why I wondered what it would take for Montreal to get Demidov if he is available at 4. Take away Russian connections, what would Columbus ask to switch if they truly decide that the d-man available is the best option for the team long term?</div></div>

Like <a href="/users/squashmaple" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@squashmaple</a> said, if Montreal is set on Demidov I'd target the Chicago or Anaheim picks. He's almost certainly the 2nd best player available.

The only scenario I could see Columbus deciding the best D-man available is the best option with Demidov still available at 4 is if it's Silayev or Levshunov, both of whom are seriously good options. But that means that Chicago or Anaheim both passed on one of those two <em>and </em>Demidov...which just seems impossible.

I think it's more likely Columbus has their eyes set on Lindstrom, and views the top-4 as Celebrini, Levshunov, Silayev, and Demidov, which means they can grab Lindstrom at 5. If Demidov is still available and that's the clear pick though, I think we're talking 5OA, the WPG 1st, and potentially more just to move up one spot.

I just don't see a scenario where one of Silayev, Levshunov, Demidov, or Lindstrom are available at 4OA and Columbus doesn't just...make the pick. We need BPA.
Forum: Armchair-GM21 hours ago
Thread: Demidov available at 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Montreal1st</b></div><div>i think Harris may be under rated, even by Montreal fans. With that said, I am sure he will have a long career and even grab many draft picks at trade deadline over the next decade, but he is probably "just a guy", what I am curious about is what fans think of Columbus russians...I like them all and wonder what each of the 3 are valued at from people that get to watch them often.</div></div>

They all bring something different, which is fun.

Marchenko: goal scoring and overall offensive talent
Chinakhov: blistering speed and a teriffic shot, and pretty defensively responsible
Voronkov: goal-scoring touch in a body that gives opponents nightmares, he's almost a unicorn

I couldn't see any of them being moved, at least not without an overpay (like a 1st in the top-half of the round). They're all under 24, and were some of the few bright spots last season.

Also,
Tarasov: looks like he may be a starter in the future
Provorov: sneaky good at most things, but not exceptional at anything. Good 2nd-pair D-man, but I don't want him on my team with Mateychuk coming up.

As for the trade, Harris isn't of interest to Columbus. I'm sure he's fine, but we have Werenski, Provorov, Mateychuk, Bean (for now), and likely Svozil on the left ahead of him. Jiricek, Boqvist, Severson, and Gudbranson are all ahead of him on the right.