I think this is a fair offer if Winnipeg has given up on him, don't think they have and will keep him though.

Also not sold on him on the Habs, don't know if you want a top 6 with Perfetti, Caufield and Suzuki, they're all on the small side

Yeah - my thought exactly.

I doubt WPG will let him go right now, and I think the habs are better off swiging for the fence with the WPG pick.

A struggling prospect and late first don't get you a young top 6 player.

A top 6 player healthy scratch in the playoffs ?
He isn’t a top 6 player

Lol. okay. The Jets will hang onto him. Montreal should have no interest.

Claiming Barron is struggling and not conceding that Perfetti is also struggling is sort of crazy. Just using a pick value chart for reference this offer seems to be good ballpark value.

Also, Barron had a 61% GF paired with Matheson (top pair) this year and a 50% GF paired with Guhle (2nd Pair). He was quite fine in the top 4 at the NHL, I think MTL wanted him to work on some details in Laval as it was his last year of no waivers and they had a crowded blue line. Barron (22), Xhekaj (23), Struble (22) all seen stints in Laval this year, all of them are NHL calibre defenseman.



Suzuki is 212 lbs, he is pretty solid I wouldn't classify him as being on the small side.

19 goals doesn't sound like too much of a struggle. He's just learning how to be consistent. Not being able to crack the top 4 consistently on one of the worst teams in hockey is struggling.

Not to mention Montreal is the 2nd team to give up on Barron.

See my edit from the original post:

Also, Barron had a 61% GF paired with Matheson (top pair) this year and a 50% GF paired with Guhle (2nd Pair). He was quite fine in the top 4 at the NHL, I think MTL wanted him to work on some details in Laval as it was his last year of no waivers and they had a crowded blue line. Barron (22), Xhekaj (23), Struble (22) all seen stints in Laval this year, all of them are NHL calibre defenseman.

When Barron played in MTL he averaged 16:00 / game at 5v5. That is 4th highest on MTL. I don't think MTL is giving up on him, it would be counter-intuitive to put him in the minors (when you are rebuilding) if you planned on trading him as that doesn't boost value.

and you'll get swept

Yet, he only played 48 games.

Perfetti would be 5th in points, 4th is goals on Montreal, so absolutely a top 6 player.

Barron would be behind Morrissey, Samberg, Pionk, Stanley and Schmidt next year and DeMelo and Dillon if they come back. So, he'd be fighting for 6D at best if DeMelo and Dillon move on.

So tell me how it improves Winnipeg to move a young 19 goal scorer that played in their top 6 for a 6/7 D.

I'm not trying to sell you on this deal, and if you would prefer to keep Perfetti you can just say so... but you are being disingenuous when you claim Barron is the only "struggling" player meanwhile Perfetti is a healthy scratch right now.

Perfetti's pace of 44 pts / 82 games would put him 6th for Forwards for Montreal this year (I'm counting Dach based on his performance last season and Monahan who left a hole that needs filled). Montreal has $16M in cap space they can used to address forwards...

If I was acquiring Perfetti I would project him to be playing on the 3rd line for MTL:

Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Caufield
Newhook - Dach - TOP6 F
Perfetti - 3C - Armia

I would want to spread out the smaller Forwards Caufield, Newhook, and Perfetti.

Meanwhile (probably an unpopular opinion among habs fans) but I'm actually projecting Barron to play with Matheson based on their success together this year. I also project MTL rolling 7D:

Matheson - Barron (61.54 GF%)
Guhle - Kovacevic (58.82 GF%)
Hutson - Savard - Xhekaj (68.00 GF%)

Honestly, I'd probably just keep Barron and the 1st and rock with Joshua Roy who had an identical 20 year old pro year to Perfetti.

Again, that's how I see it for MTL, if you see things a different way for the Jets I respect your opinion... but you can't fault Barron (who was fine on a crowded defence) and not also fault Perfetti for the same thing (who was fine on a crowded forward group before he was pushed out by deadline acquisitions).

Yes, I would just keep Perfetti. Barron simply isn't better than any of Winnipeg's in house options.

While you can say both players struggled at times as all young players do. In think it's disingenuous for you claim that a young player that put up 19 goals playing regularly for most of the year in the top 6 on a team with a very good top 6, struggled as much as a a defenseman that couldn't consistently crack the lineup of a very bad defense.

Those are two very different levels of struggle.

If Perfetti was a Canadien, would you make the same deal for Barron?

Perfetti fits too closely in the same mold as Newhook (1 year younger, but same size / style of play, productivity is similar, both can play Center but should be considered wingers). Would I take him? sure. But I'm not interested in paying the same price that Hughes paid for Newhook, which is what Perfetti would probably cost.

Newhook....

Exactly. Newhook isn't as good and returned more than this offer.

No he didn't lol

Looking at his trade history here. Newhook returned a 1st, 2nd and throw away prospect. More than what is offered here and Newhook was a lesser and less established player at the time.

I am in the minority of MTL fans in feeling that Barron did not really struggle. He was MTL's 4th most used defence at 5v5 on average and he posted a 50% GF in that usage (which is a pass on a rebuilding team IMO).

He's not much a penalty killer and he had limited powerplay ice time on the 2nd unit, I assume MTL wanted him to improve his game defensively (specifically on the penalty kill) which is why they assigned him to Laval, but for the mistakes he makes he brings enough good to balance it out and that should improve with time. This was the last year before Barron required waivers so I think they just took the opportunity to develop him down there. Ultimately, the emergence of Struble is what pushed Xhekaj to Laval for a stint, but Xhekaj is simply better than Barron so eventually they changed spots.

But Struble had easier usage than Barron and he had worse results with a 47.76% GF, so I don't think it's fair to say he couldn't crack the line up... he was better than Struble and when he was in the lineup he played the majority of his minutes in the top 4.

Regarding trading Perfetti if I was the jets - i would say no not necessarily. But I would be trading a forward for a defenseman because of what they have in the system. I personally think Barron would be a good fit in WPG on the 3rd pair with the potential to grow into a top 4 role as he develops more consistency. He won't necessarily make you better right away but he gives you an internal solution to the aging and expiring contracts defence.

If you aren't interested I can understand (as WPG is probably wanting to get better now and doesn't really care about the future), my personal stance would be to keep Barron around anyways unless a really good offer is out there.

YOU ARE BEING OFFERED A 1ST AND JUSTIN BARRON. Not a late second lol, this kid is good it's not like we're looking to move him lol. Only if the price is something like this

Cool. Then hang onto him. The Jets have no interest in moving Perfetti unless it is for something that makes them better now.

A first and a 3rd (Barron's value) is less than a 1st, 2nd and C prospect.

This is where there is a huge discrepancy in value for us. In what world is Barron worth a 3rd round pick? 3rd round picks are busts all the time, Barron already has 94 career NHL games at 22 years old and he is currently 25th in his draft class for points (despite being a defenseman). Like c'mon, whoever you draft in the 3rd round isn't going to be as good as Barron, whoever you draft in the 2nd round probably won't be as good as Barron either. I think less than 50% of 2nd round picks even become NHL players?

You're either undervaluing Barron or overvaluing draft picks, perhaps both. This offer is right in line with the price for Newhook.

The thing that brings Barron's value down is waiver eligibility. Just because a player was worth a 2nd at one point, doesn't mean he's worth a 2nd forever.

He needs to clear waivers next season, so if he doesn't clearly make the team out of training camp, you lose him on waivers. Someone who is desperate for a bottom pairing defenseman may give you a 2nd for him, penciling him in on the bottom pair, but unlikely a team that isn't sure where he will fit, does that. Bottom pairing defenseman are plentiful and cheap in trades or as UFA's.

Barron simply isn't a clear upgrade on anything Winnipeg currently has in house, so he's not worth pursuing.

If you want to move him for a 3rd, the Jets could take a look. If you want Perfetti, you'd need to offer a comparably aged, comparably skilled player that fills a need for the Jets.

Pure futures or bits and bobs don't do it.

That's just silly though, you think MTL would take a 3rd for him? Obviously not so his value is greater than a 3rd.

When you say Barron is worth a 3rd round pick you need to specify WPG would only offer a 3rd round pick, because those are two different things.

But a question for you:
1. What are the odds of WPG's 3rd round pick making the NHL?
2. What are the odds of Barron making WPG's roster next season?

I believe the odds of option 2 are significantly higher than option 1.

sure the odds are higher, but not high enough to justify moving a young top 6 forward coming off a 19 goal season.

I did say someone might offer a 2nd for him, but most teams have players that are close, but can't crack the team and almost all of those guys aren't returning a 2nd. Barron is basically a Kovacevic (yes, I know he's older) and the Jets got nothing for him.

I think Montreal likely would trade him for a 3rd, unless they are sure he is making the team next season. Because if he doesn't, he's lost on waivers at some point.

I'm not disputing the Perfetti trade, just the logic that Barron is worth a 3rd (even to WPG).

Ironically, I really like Kovacevic (again minority compared to most habs fans). He's got size, he is a reliable bottom pair guy, and he is a good penalty killer. I am even open to possibly keeping Kovacevic over Barron depending on how things fall into place next season... if Mailloux and Reinbacher progress as expected Barron likely becomes trade bait. For now, Barron has more potential upside (than Kovacevic) so I wouldn't pull the trigger yet.

For reference I checked out WPG's draft history from 2020 to 2011.

2nd Round Picks (5/8 = 62.5%)
- Petan, Gustaffson, Samberg, Harkins, Comrie

I would argue Barron is better than all of those players aside from maybe Samberg whom I would say they are on par with one another.

3rd round picks (2/10 = 20%)
- Lowry, Kovacevic

Lowry was a home run for them in the 3rd round and clearly more valuable than Barron. Kovacevic is arguably on par with Barron but a lower ceiling, time will tell.

Just going off that I think it's fair to say Barron is for sure worth a 2nd round pick. I would argue more because I personally think he has a better than 62.5% chance of having a long NHL career, one that is better than the fringe guys like Harkins, Petan etc.

Point being you can trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you maybe really regret that 1 / 18 times (5.6%), you'd be fine with it 2 / 18 times (11.1%), you'd be happy with it 4 / 18 times (22.2%), and you'd be downright winners 11 / 18 times (61.1%).

Trading Barron for a 2nd round pick would be like trying to double up with 5% odds, with a 10% chance of getting your money back, a 20% chance of getting a little money back, but 65% of the time its not gonna work out for you.