Edited Feb. 3, 2023 at 10:27 a.m.
Quoting: TooMalevolent
I see your other points, but he's a top 5-6 goalie no question. And that's the elite list. He's elite.
Yeah, Saros is elite but I would say giving two first and a good goalie prospect is what would be a reasonable amount to give. That being said the Leafs have two capable starting goalies, so even that would be a waste of assets. NSH will likely want a first round pick that is pick 10-12 or a great goalie prospect.
At the end of the day the goalie needs to just play on an elite level, and having an elite D-core could help for example.
In the last 10 seasons these goalies won the cup:
Crawford, Quick, Murray/Fleury, Holtby, Binnington, Vasilevskiy, and Kuemper
Many were considered elite when they won and some were even among the top 5 goalies over several seasons.
4 have Hall of Fame careers.
2 were rookies when they won and they aren't considered great now. Ironically, Murray was considered a rookie both times and he's also the goalie not being trusted here.
2 were plagued with injuries
We'll have to wait and see what Kuemper will do but he's just a good starter.
In the years they won Crawford was 8th in Vezina voting, Quick 5th (2nd two years prior), Crawford 6th, seems like Fleury had no votes but he did have a strong 15-16 season and Murray was ineligible, no votes for Fleury or Murray in the following year either but Murray did have a strong season, Holtby had no votes (was 2nd year before), Binnington was ineligible, Vesi was 3rd (won the year before) and 2nd, and Kuemper had a strong season but no votes (5th 3 years prior).
So, while goaltending has a great importance in winning a cup, it's also the most unpredictable aspect of the game.
Saros hasn't had enough playoff success for the gamble to be worth it for the Leafs. Ultimately, it won't make much of a difference unless they do get passed the first and second rounds.