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tupty
Good nerd
Member Since
Jun. 6, 2023
Favourite Team
Boston Bruins
Forum Posts
765
Posts per Day
2.3
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
4 hours ago
Thread:
What the Devils should do to right the ship
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Schuyler</b></div><div>disagree Hameenaho had a very good year probably the devils best forward propsect right now</div></div>
Look, I'm not saying he's a dud or anything. I'm just saying its too early to tell what he will be, so its hard to say he's worth much more or much less than his draft position a year ago. He's a 19 year old still playing on the bigger European ice surface who averaged .67 points per game in Liiga. It's pretty hard to project what he will be in the NHL at this point. If he caps out at the ceiling it sounds like you are projecting him to have, you'll probably be glad you didn't trade him for a pending UFA goalie.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
8 hours ago
Thread:
2024 2025 Ottawa Senators
I'm not sure I see much benefit for Boston in making that trade. The pick swap has a slight benefit of letting them pick in the 2nd round a year earlier, but the players coming back are not really needed, and Beecher is playing a valuable role on the team. It doesn't seem worth it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
11 hours ago
Thread:
What the Devils should do to right the ship
I'm no prospect expert, but the trade effectively looks like the equivalent of two late 2nd rounders with Hämeenaho having been picked in the late 2nd round, but being too early to really tell what he will be. If I'm the Bruins, I'm trying to hold out for a 1st rounder. I think it is a sellers market when it comes to goaltending this offseason, so we shall see what happens.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:20 a.m.
Thread:
If the Devils were actually good
The Boston deal is way too convoluted. Boston doesn't particularly need Bastian or Schmid so they are effectively 1 year cap dumps, retaining 1.5m on Palat for 3 years is a big ask, and they are also giving up Beecher. Seamus is a great piece, but if I am Don Sweeney, he doesn't fill enough of a need to basically neuter the Bruins from a cap perspective next year and give up a player who has a future there (Beecher) all while sending away the team's best trade asset.
A much simpler offer, like a 2025 first rounder, is probably all you need for Ullmark. And Beecher is not untouchable, but there are probably less costly options for picking up bottom 6 defensive players with grit in UFA.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 12:44 a.m.
Thread:
Pens
Hard no from Boston. They need higher end picks more than any of the pieces you are sending, and they still have the chance to improve their top 6 in free agency.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 2:02 a.m.
Thread:
Keeping PLD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hckeydude123</b></div><div>Watching the last couple Bruin games Lohrei looks like he’s almost ready to be a full time NHLer so one yr of Gavi as a safety net could benefit him.</div></div>
I would have been with you 100% about three weeks ago, but if I'm the Bruins FO and my choice is a 1st rounder or 1 year of Gavrikov and a 2nd rounder, I am taking the 1st round pick and rolling the dice with Lohrei. Lohrei has shown his ability to rise to the occasion now, so I have far fewer reservations about giving him a top 4 spot next year. They are in a re-tool after all, so if he faulters then it isn't the end of the world.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 2:57 a.m.
Thread:
Leafs are terrible Everyone goes and we dont care about picks
I probably wouldn't even trade Ullmark to the Leafs for that package, let alone Swayman. Forget about the market value: the Bruins are not in the business of taking on the risk of Marner's next contract negotiation or making their division rivals better by fixing a goaltending problem which is going to be tricky to solve if Woll doesn't pan out. Marner is absolutely being scapegoated in Toronto, but I also don't want the Bruins paying him 10m+ for any amount of time. They need that cap space for center improvements over the next few years.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 2:51 a.m.
Thread:
not cheating the cap
Habs fans are constantly trying to trade Jordan Harris to the Bruins for a 3rd, which from the Bruins perspective makes very little sense. Please make this trade and save me from having to see another one of those trade proposals.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 7:03 p.m.
Thread:
Sens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>rofl swayman aint worth a top 20 pick yet alone add more. OTT declines</div></div>
The Swayman trade proposals are getting a bit old anyway. You think its too much, yet it isn't enough for Boston to actually give him up either. The gulf is too wide for Sway to realistically be traded, people should be focused on Ullmark if Boson trades a goalie at all.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 11:12 a.m.
Thread:
Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ethanwinters</b></div><div>Not sure why Boston would prefer a 2024 pick after the drop off over a 2025 pick.</div></div>
Just plain old temporal discounting coupled with the fact that the prospect pool is already thin. If they make the pick a year earlier, the player is more likely to be NHL ready a year earlier. They also don't pick until round 3 this year, while they have a 1st rounder next year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 1:29 a.m.
Thread:
Next Year
LA gave up so much to get PLD. I can't imagine that they'd give up on him after just 1 year. That seems to be what I've heard from most Kings fans as well.
I don't think Boston needs to send out the 3rd round pick along with Ullmark to get a 1st round pick back in general (NJD fans seem fine with a 2025 1st for Ullmark swap), although the fact that it is a 2024 pick is probably appealing to the Boston FA. I imagine they'd consider sending something more to bump the pick to 2024, but a 3rd rounder is a bit steep.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 9:06 p.m.
Thread:
Isles Reset
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tchockey</b></div><div>I should have wrote it in but I would assume that the trade would also come with a reasonable 2-3 year extension at like 5.5 per</div></div>
I would gladly trade Beecher + a 1st + a 4th for 3 years of Nelson at 5.5m. I don't think he would accept that kind of contract, but if he would then I think the trade is reasonable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 7:59 p.m.
Thread:
Isles Reset
That is way too much for 1 year of Brock Nelson. If someone else will pay that then great, but I sure hope Boston wouldn't. He is also 32, so his next deal is not going to be fun to negotiate. A lot of risk involved since he could fall off in the next 3 seasons but is still skilled enough to undoubtedly want 5-6 more on his next deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 7:15 p.m.
Thread:
Just Revamping
Bruins FO, right or wrong, seems to think that durability and size are the key qualities they want in defenders. I don't think Ferraro fits that mold, so I don't see them giving up a first for him. I also don't see space on the regular roster for Givani Smith, so I don't see them using a roster spot on him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 5:57 p.m.
Thread:
Goaler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>I believe you are going to see Lysell or Lohrei in one of those spots, but I get why you’d prefer not to add Husso. If it were Wallinder or Buium plus a 2nd, I’d rather have that than include Husso and replace the 2nd with a first,</div></div>
Yeah, I think I'd do that. I want to see Lohrei start the season on the 3rd pairing and Lysell on the 3rd line, and see if they can work their way up. They should both be regulars next year (I hope!), but hopefully we make them earn their way into the top 4 and top 6 respectively.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 4:07 p.m.
Thread:
Goaler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>I think we could keep Bussi as a 23rd man on the roster or even bury Husso if we wanted.
It doesn’t impact the ability to secure a top forward at all, but it does impact secondary moves to build depth with more than $2m or less players.
I do think it’s feasible to argue whether the difference between a first and second is worth taking Husso.</div></div>
I believe that in an ideal world, we need 2 top 6 F (one for Jake's spot, maybe Jake himself; the other we have platooned 3rd liners all year) and a top 4 LD. Even if we shed Ullmark's salary in full, I think we cannot target top UFAs in all 3 spots and field a competitive roster.
If we bury Husso, that is more than 3.5m in dead cap. To me, that seems far more likely thank carrying ~5.75m in cap space and 2 roster spots for backup goalies right after signing what appers to be a premier starter.
If you do either of those things, I think Don would need to moneyball 1-2 of those roster spots I mentioned, and even that will be much harder compared to this past offseason when good players had their values depressed by the cap crunch.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 30 at 9:10 p.m.
Thread:
Goaler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>My perspective is wallinder and a 2nd would net Ullmark. The difference between the first and the second is Boston’s payment for taking Husso.</div></div>
See my most recent comment above for my thoughts on why we need retention. Without it, we probably lose Bussi and can't afford to sign a top 6 F next year. I think it kills the deal. But we can just get a 3rd party to retain to save it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 30 at 9:08 p.m.
Thread:
Goaler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGRWinLA</b></div><div>I would gladly involve a third party to make it work. My initial build had a half retention, but I couldn't get a full roster that way. I know that a true hockey trade would involve so discomfort from both teams, that's just how it works.</div></div>
Some discomfort for Boston's side as things stand would be missing a true top 6 F next year due to lack of cap space, paying 4.75m for a backup, and possibly losing the current heir apparent backup on waivers (his eligibility is done after this season). It makes the team worse in the short term due to cap and possibly in the long term if Bussi could have been a cheap long term backup.
Is that worth Wallinder and a 1st? Possibly, but with some retention it becomes much more palatable because it gives the Bruins more options, even including burying Husso to keep Bussi. 3rd party retaining gets this over the finish line. Maybe Wings and Bruins both send a pick to the retaining team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 30 at 3:26 p.m.
Thread:
Goaler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGRWinLA</b></div><div>That's what I'm trying to do. But no Husso no draft picks. That's where the value lies.</div></div>
Obviously you'd need to change things in your ACGM to be cap compliant, but if you took out the 4th rounder, would you consider retaining on Husso for 1 year? Wallinder and a 1st is solid value, but the main reasons to move Ully would be to free up a big chunk of cap space for this offseason and to move up in the 2024 draft. This deal does not do either of those things, but the overall value is better than most proposals I have seen. But maybe some retention on Husso makes it more palatable for the Bs? Maybe you could throw the 4th to another team to do the retention for you. I'd love to see him at 3.25m or less, but that much retention in the offseason probably costs more than a 4th.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 29 at 2:16 p.m.
Thread:
Fresh
Change post title: Trades from an Auston Matthews fever dream
Now it all makes sense!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 29 at 2:13 p.m.
Thread:
trades or UFA
Bruins shouldn't trade Ullmark with Bahl + a 2nd as the centerpiece. I think you might be overvaluing Bahl based on both of these trades. I doubt EDM wants ro move Ekholm to dump cap, but I admit that I don't know their situation very intimately.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 29 at 2:10 p.m.
Thread:
DEBRUSK STAY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BruinsJoe</b></div><div>Devils need a star goalie and i think they will trade this 1st pick next draft for a top goalie
Bruins love Debrusk and i really think it s good money value for him 40-50pts guy who is a really good 2 way player, and on the market he can get a bit more per me</div></div>
2025 1st seems more like the price to ask for. Devils fans, at least, have been pretty consistent that this year's pick is too high for 1 year of a goalie.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread:
Playground
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Of course Ottawa will be looking to trade Chychrun to a team that would/could extend him, hence not for 1 season``</div></div>
He is a UFA, so you don't have a ton of leverage here. You could grant the team negotiating rights while under contract with you, which could increase the cost, but not by all that much. It depends on how im-demand the player is and how desperate the trading team is to get the player.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>And not all 1sts are equal, it was a 12th OA pick.</div></div>
Honest question: did the teams know that at the time of the trade? I assume they did not, because I though it was a TDL teade and Ottawa was trying to make a last push to get into the playoffs. If that is the case, the fact that it settled at the 12th OA pick is not really relevant in discussing the value of the trade.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Ottawa would only be interested in that offer if they are interested in Merkulov</div></div>
This is fair. If they don't want Merkulov, then he has 0 value. I am not sure they would want him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26 at 12:28 a.m.
Thread:
Fire Lou Major Retool
No thanks on Pamlieri for a 1st rounder.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 25 at 8:32 p.m.
Thread:
Playground
I think NJ is overpaying in the Ullmark trade and Boston is overpaying in the Chychrun trade.
Drop the 2nd from the Ullmark trade and I think that is closer to correct.
I'm not sure about Chychrun's value off the top of my head, but I do know that Ottawa paid basically a 1st and 2 2nds for 2.5 seasons, and even that was arguably an overpay. You are proposing a similar value for 1 season of him (Merk is probably not worth a 2nd, but he does have some value like a 3rd or 4th). I doubt Chychrun's value has gone up very much since he was traded and he is now a pending UFA, so I wouldn't give up more than a 1st. If the cost is higher, then another team with more picks/prospects is welcome to pay it.
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