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tjk
Loyal To The Oil
Member Since
May 17, 2023
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
Forum Posts
326
Posts per Day
0.9
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 2 at 3:37 p.m.
Thread:
Buch or Bust
This is still the dream.
Also, Holloway top line shows you're not a casual.
Good ****.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 2 at 3:35 p.m.
Thread:
Rumors
Not a bad deal for the Oilers. I think they would look at Edmundson or Beck before Milano though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 2 at 3:33 p.m.
Thread:
Retooling
I think the Oilers are out on this. Reports coming out today are that they are comfortable with their goalie situation. They'll look to upgrade Top 4 RD and Top 6 W
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 6:06 p.m.
Thread:
Time to win is now
Lines are weird asf but also if the time to win is now we have to upgrade Ceci. We won't win with him playing in the top 4, we've tried and we see he is just not that player.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 6:05 p.m.
Thread:
Go all in with the LD depth
Agreeing that the Oilers would do it if there was 50% retention, but I assume that upgrades the pick to a 2nd.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 6:04 p.m.
Thread:
dont overthink it
I think you undersold Foegele.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 6:02 p.m.
Thread:
Getting fair value for Hanifin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Cdn_bacon</b></div><div>I'd equate Lysell to a 1st, he's trending decently at the AHL level. Fits Calgary's retool timeline.</div></div>
I agree, and hey I really like Lysell.
But we can't undersell how good of a player Hanifin is and how much he would impact a contender. That's Lysell and a 1st at a minimum.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 6:01 p.m.
Thread:
kent its time to cook and finesse people
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>batman</b></div><div>what are the odds hughes pull that</div></div>
0% lol. Holland has had a stiffy for Holloway since his draft year and will likely never trade him. Also, he's the only good young guy we have who competes and is constantly progressing at the NHL level. Also, Kenny weirdly likes Ceci, I'd assume he views Savard as a lesser player to Ceci at this point just based on how he views the two.
So quite literally 0% chance.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 5:58 p.m.
Thread:
All out for Swayman
Swayman is elite but this is still wayyyyy too much.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 5:57 p.m.
Thread:
Cook
You cheffed imo.
Get ready to hear it from NASH fans though because they are gonna want more for Novak.
Love this deal for the team though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread:
Getting fair value for Hanifin
Lol nice bait. I actually wouldn't mind Dube in Edmonton...
Idk imo you undersold Hanifin. Even though he is a UFA at yearend, he'd at least get you a 1st and a prospect. He's a good player (from an Oil fan). And based on previous deals for D we've seen at the deadline the Flames should really be in the driver seat.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 5:53 p.m.
Thread:
Foegele
Oilers will only move Foegele if it results in them getting a straight upgrade to their top 6. Even then I think they want to keep him.
If they were looking to move him he'd certainly get more than a 4th, like a low 2nd which the Rangers have. You valued Bjugstad more than him, just having them both on our team last year I can tell you Foegele is more valuable than Nick.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1 at 5:51 p.m.
Thread:
Still Dreaming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>You know trading Brown now doesn't move that bonus payment right? Oilers are still on the hook for that. Take out the 4th going to the Oilers and the Hawks probably accept.</div></div>
I am aware, that's fair. Wanted to move a RW for a LW. If it's just a trade down and swap there that's cool.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 28 at 5:44 p.m.
Thread:
Middle of the Road
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SHOWTIME_TTV</b></div><div>You overvalue Carrier + undervalue Novak</div></div>
Ok, but then it's a wash, right like if I undervalue one and overvalue the other then the whole trade is fair? Like ok I guess cool
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Feb. 23 at 7:21 p.m.
Thread:
Montreal
Love the depth of this breakdown, you put a lot of thought into it!
From an Oilers perspective, Savard wouldn't be my favourite option but he is someone I could see us trading for if we can get money in money out. I don't mean we have to be trading money back to the Habs, I think the value you said is fair.
For the other trades:
- I don't know what the value of Allen will be, it is highly dependent on other goalies getting traded. I could see this happening if he is the only goalie available, it would be nitpicking to say oh it's not a good enough pick, I just assume Kings fans will want more. Kaliyev has been a killer every time I've seen him play.
- I don't think the value is terrible. I just think you're going to have to look at a Zegras deal almost as an Eichel-like trade. I'm not saying they're comparable but his ceiling is close to Eichel's. But I like the idea of MTL trading for him given how poorly they have drafted. I just think that will have to be the MTL pick (between 4-10) and not a pick between 26-32.
- I don't think it's enough value on Krebs. This one is worse than the Kaliyev one imo, should at the minimum be a 2nd.
- The Lundell trade has no shot of happening, especially considering Matheson has been in Florida before and they shipped him out.
- The last one is unrealistic (you basically said as much) but the value is pretty far off imo. Imagine if you had Seider and were to even consider trading him, you'd want way more. I'm talking 3+ 1sts and a player in the NHL producing like Caufield. I think Caufield and 3 1sts is closer to fair for Seider than what you proposed.
All and all, appreciate the thought and effort.
But my thoughts:
1. Kaliyev and Krebs probably both cost a 2nd and prospect (at least that range).
2. Savard trade is semi-fair, I like the thought of Allen to LAK.
3. Zegras would net the 7th overall pick you mentioned and other stuff. I still think the Habs should do that.
4. Lundell trade is not the right spot or player, but you should trade Matheson.
5. Seider trade is unrealistic and undervalued.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 8:27 p.m.
Thread:
Dream trade
I don't agree with the comment that it'll take two firsts to dump Campbell. Worst case he gets bought out in the off-season and a team is eating 1-2 mil of cap. Based off what we have seen that is probably worth a 1st.
But the Nash trade isn't great for Nash.
Gotta think if it's a 1st to dump Campbell, it's probably a 1st+ to get Saros, and maybe even a 1st to get Carrier with how he has been playing. And they are taking Ceci's cap. In my mind this deal would cost at a minimum Broberg, Bourgy, 1st, 1st, 2nd
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 8:23 p.m.
Thread:
Flyers Offseason
As an Oilers fan, I'd rather take that Risto deal than the 1st for Walker... but both seem to be a bit lopsided towards the Flyers imo
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 8:20 p.m.
Thread:
FIRE SALE
From what we're hearing Broberg and Holloway won't be moved for a rental, so if it comes with an extension maybe that's different. But the Oil probably will only trade one of the two and would have to move out cap in order to get Jake. He's for sure my top target but your deal would need some of those tweaks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 4:02 p.m.
Thread:
no shot this ever happens
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Hell no from Calgary</div></div>
That's what I'm saying... no shot they should even consider trading him!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 22 at 3:14 p.m.
Thread:
Next Draft after Moves Id Make
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SlickWilly</b></div><div>I could see Kulak as a short term target if we trade Murphy somewhere else. Otherwise, I dont really see the value in adding another defenseman to a clogged system.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>I don’t see the Hawks taking on another left handed shot d-man. I know Kulak can apparently play his off side but at $2.75m per season, I would just as soon try moving some of the Hawks existing cheaper options to the right side.</div></div>
That's fair. Didn't look too much into it. For the purposes of a dump Kulak could go anywhere, doesn't necessarily have to be Chicago.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 4:32 p.m.
Thread:
Screw it we ball
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Over the past 1.5 seasons Guentzel has scored 0.25 goals/game at 5v5, compared to Foegele's 0.176 goals/game.
<a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&p1=8477998&p2=8477404&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Foegele v Guentzel, 5v5 counts</a>
In the last quartile of the season, that amounts to a grand total of 1.5 additional goals. Is that 1.5 goals really worth Lavoie + Lachance + 1st + 3rd to you?</div></div>
Foegele and Guentzel have both played 58 playoff games in their career. Foegele has 16pts, Guentzel has 58pts and a cup.
Yes, that difference is worth a pick and whatever prospects to me.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 2:20 p.m.
Thread:
Screw it we ball
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>1. Brown's bonus has already been paid out by Edmonton so the bonus cap hit is their's irrespective. So trading a 2nd to "dump" a player making league minimum is silly. Send him to the minors, send a 5th to Chicago for Entwistle.
2. Ceci is not a cap dump. He has played the 24th most minutes v Elites of any defenseman in the league over the past 2.5 seasons and has kept his head above water with a 51.8 xGF% at 5v5. He gives full effort every single night and makes just $3.25M.
3. Guentzel was barely an upgrade on Foegele pre-injury and we don't know how he'll perform post-injury. Plus he played over 90% of this TOI with Crosby while Foegele's most common center was Ryan McLeod. Why is Edmonton adding prospects & picks? Guentzel is a rental they won't be able to re-sign.
4. I think the trade value is about right, not convinced the target is though.
5. If 1st minus two 3rds is about the same value as a 2nd, why not just trade a 2nd? I don't think it's wise to give up a 1st for a 4th liner, even if he's a good one.</div></div>
Thanks for the info. Wasn't sure how the bonus worked. That's why I was saying if we're paying his bonus change it to a 4th or 5th.
2. While I disagree, I think it's all relative. Like if there isn't a way we can get a definite upgrade we should just keep him, thereby he isn't a "dump". But if it means getting a RD upgrade I think I'd "dump" him with a 3rd somewhere. It's a cause-and-effect trade, I'm only saying it's a "dump" because it enables another move for a better player with the same salary, not because I think Ceci is a bad player or has a bad deal that needs to be "dumped".
3. I think Guentzel is a clear upgrade over Foegele, and if you are gonna use the argument that he's good because he plays with Crosby, you could then reason that he will also be good with McDavid or Drai. I don't think we can re-sign Foegs anyways, so for half a season it's worth the upgrade. At least in my opinion.
4. Who do you prefer?
5. Mainly just did that because I had no 2nds or 3rds left with the trades I made. Given the 2nd from the Brown deal would be a 4th-5th, just move it there and I'd take that deal, I like Dowd.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 2:12 p.m.
Thread:
Screw it we ball
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>The Oilers have paid Brown his bonus, so Edmonton has to account for it. Hawks accept Brown and a 4th for Entwistle.</div></div>
Ok cool, thanks, I just wasn't quite sure how it worked. I'd do that deal all day.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 9 at 6:28 p.m.
Thread:
Ceci Stinks So Bad
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SMH</b></div><div>Based on value charts the late first is worth between 430 and 390 points and the combined points at the positions that you suggested is 775 . So even if the pick is at 26 which is worth 430 points its a steep price</div></div>
Hmm, what chart did you use? I used Sound of Hockey to try and make the values even. those things are pretty subjective, who knows what a pick is worth until a deal is made during the day.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 7 at 7:34 p.m.
Thread:
Ceci Stinks So Bad
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jakobie</b></div><div>so basically 2 guys retained(1 very good player) for a rental, a C+ prospect, and a lottery protected pick? no thanks, Sens pass</div></div>
I mean I don't think that is quite a fair breakdown. You picked up Tarasenko for nothing on a 1 year deal to retain half and deal for a 1st at the deadline, that is quite literally what the trade is. Foegele is just as much a rental as the other two but probably fits better in long-term OTT plans if they want to re-sign him. Lavoie is good. He could play in the top 9 in Ottawa, he just doesn't fit on the Oilers because he can only get in on the bottom line and we have enough guys who do that. Lavoie is a high 2nd rounder (could've been a 1st rounder) 6'4" and produces at almost a ppg in the AHL. I'd say he's better than a C+.
Also I don't get the argument that retention should be seen as this devastating add to a deal when the players are literally on expiring contracts. Might as well use the space.
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