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jonh514

HuGo is a Boss GM
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Dec. 4, 2021
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Forum: Armchair-GM21 hours ago
Thread: Packin with Lane and Macklin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shanesaw9</b></div><div>Although it's unlikely, this team would be so set with Celebrini.

I don't think Lindholm would go for that, but that would be a great move for Montreal.

I don't think MTL necessarilly needs to lose a forward, Dvorak and/or Anderson can just go to Laval and maybe they will find their game again like Armia. Doesn't make sense to trade Evans either just for the sake of trading him, but I wonder about an Evans for Pageau swap. Similar players, but Islanders need the cap space right now and MTL doesn't so maybe they could get a good pick as compensation.

For me Harris is the odd man out, at least Kovacevic has size and can kill penalties, plus I'd rather have balanced LHD + RHD pairs. Hutson (5'10" LHD) knocks Harris (5'11" LHD) out instead of Kovacevic (6'5" RHD).</div></div>

Appreciate the response!

On Harris, I find he's a better overall player, but I am OK with trading him. IMO they will both be gone in 2 years.

On Lindholm... 44 points in a mostly healthy season. He's gonna have to take less money or term than most think.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 9:58 a.m.
Thread: Packin with Lane and Macklin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Yeah no way Lindholm goes for that. He's having a pretty strong playoffs and is still going to be the #1 center on the market this summer. Boston will be all over him and obviously they are far closer to winning a cup than Montreal. If he were to take a 1 year deal it would be with a team that has the best chances of raising his value or Boston, Carolina, NYI, Toronto, Dallas, etc. the only non-playoff team I could see him going to is Columbus because of the vacant center spot, Gaudreau connection, and cap space. And that will be on like a 50M+ deal</div></div>

Thanks for your response. You raised some interesting points and I want to respond with my personal perspective:

Lindholm is not having a strong playoffs from my perspective with 1 goal and 1 point in 3 games. I'll admit I have not watched the games, but he was brought in to provide secondary scoring and I think he's falling short in that regard.

You're right that he's one of the bigggest name forwards available to sign a deal, but you are wrong in assuming any team is gonna offer him a 7 year deal at big money after a 15 goal and 44 point season. He had a chance to rehab his image in Vancouver. He failed. If he wants to sign a big-money deal, he's going to have to go short term and have a comeback season next year, which I believe he can.

As to why he might accept to do it in Montreal. I would make the argument that Kent Hughes has established himself as the sort of GM who keeps his word. He promised Monahan he would give him ice time and trade him if the team was not in the playoffs to a contender and that's exactly what he did. Not all GMs would make a similar guarantee. I think being guaranteed power play time and a 2nd line role would be an incentive, and the Habs have shown a capacity to make those kinds of handshake deals.

Anyway, we'll see what happens, but I would be shocked if he got a 50M deal. The GM who offered that would go right on the hot seat.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 9:32 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 2:07 p.m.
Thread: Habs should at least consider trading Guhle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I don't see what would lead you to believe that.

Let's discount this season as far as shooting percentage goes because it's obvious from the fall-off in Caufield's that he hasn't made a complete recovery from his surgery yet. His historical shooting/scoring rate is 14.1%. Boldy's is 12.6%. Assuming each player takes 330 shots next season, that's five goals in Caufield's favor. Given the 50% disparity in assists in Boldy's favor and the fact that he plays with Kirill Kaprizov, I think that Caufield's goal surplus is likely to be swallowed up in the overall comparison. And it should also be noted that Boldy took almost 90 fewer shots this season than Caufield did.

Matt Boldy is one of the most underrated players in the NHL right now.</div></div>

I think your analysis falls apart with the assumption that Boldy will just start shooting an additional shot per game. Caufield has shown his willingness and capabilities to get open and shoot more often. With an improvement in shooting percentage, he's sure to surpass Boldy on goals for.
Forum: Armchair-GMThu. at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: Habs should at least consider trading Guhle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>"<strong>looking to be</strong> at least as good as Caufield if not better"? Matt Boldy is already demonstrably and indisputably better than Cole Caufield: he's bigger, just as fast, and plays a 200-foot game.

Caufield: 205 games, 81 goals, 68 assists = 149 points
Boldy: 203 games, 75 goals, 96 points = 171 points

Plus-minus is a coarse statistic, and Minnesota is far better defensively than Montreal, but the difference in plus-minus between the two (+23 vs. -39) is still meaningful.

Boldy is just as invaluable and untouchable to the Wild as Cole Caufield is to the Habs. Buffalo felt able to afford to trade Casey Mittelstadt because they have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL and other than #2C, all of their forward positions are pencilled in for the future. Minnesota doesn't have that luxury. This is a good idea -- I think the right idea -- but very unlikely to happen.</div></div>

Listen it's debatable for sure but... When you look at the total number of shots and the shooting percentages, I have a very hard time thinking Caufield won't out-score Boldy next year.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 9:07 a.m.
Thread: Enough or too much
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Andy_Dick</b></div><div>Oh I like Celebrini's game a lot but he isnt Bedard or a game breaker IMO and this trade would considerably thin out Montreal's depth which is everything come the playoffs. Too many people here like building regular season teams and dont take a nod to the post season. Let's face it as Gretzky said they are 3 seasons, the regular season, the playoffs and the Cup final. One is where pure talent prevails, the other is depth and all round intensity. The final is a ton of luck with injuries and timely scoring. The biggest and most important season to me is the 2nd, the third more than ever will be luck based with more expansion on the horizon. You cant control that to a degree. This sport is puck luck more than people would admit. But you can put yourself in advantageous positions.

There is just too much parity in the league to think high end players can win on their own. I live in Edmonton and <strong>Connor McDavid is the best player I've ever seen in my life and has ZERO CUPS in his career</strong>. More than ever having balance in your lineup with the talent pool getting thinner and thinner as expansion looms is just paramount.</div></div>

McDavid is amazing. His natural ability is incredible. One of the challenges he had early in his career was not making use of his teammates as much, but he's clearly worked on that and is now the best version of himself because he is making the 6 man unit better with his play.

Celebrini will never be McDavid, but he might be able to become a player akin to MacKinnon, which is arguably better since the later HAS won a cup and has looked incredible this year.

To make my argument about Bedard vs. Celebrini more clear: IMO if Chicago were to get Celebrini, they would move Bedard to the wing and play them on the same line.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 7:13 a.m.
Thread: Enough or too much
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Andy_Dick</b></div><div>The only reason you could think it's fair is that a fanbase such as say the Sharks want a reward after a terrible season so you must drastically overpay for the 1st overall pick as they are projecting all their suffering onto any deal that isnt immediately a homerun but to say easy no is just ridiculous.

Tij Iginla is so underrated in this draft speaking of underrated.
He's one of the younger players in the draft. Born another month later and he's 2025 eligible. He just cooked in the WHL playoffs which has always been a rougher league and he's exactly what Montreal needs ala Brady Tkachuk. Iginla is an absolute MUST draft if he's available at 5-6-7. I was clamouring for Benson last year but i understand the size issue. There's no excuse this year. They cant go for the shinny toys like a Lindstrom whos a giant but big injury concerns. No more Kotkaniemis. They have built this team well, its time to add the important complementary pieces that get you over the hump like an Iginla and Guhle. Lehkonen looking back was a bad deal but i dont think they are a lottery team with him in the lineup so they have to draft an Iginla type this year. Enough is enough with the promise and risky swings. They have more than enough prospects in the cupboard.</div></div>

Ok. So while I agree with you on Tij being a riser and an interesting draft option, I also agree with you that he's a complimentary piece.

Celebrini on the other hand is the kind of player you can only draft. No team will ever give him up once they have him, at least not until he's 30+. He is an elite center and plays a 2-way game in a way Bedard doesn't. He is extra attractive because he's already got chemistry with Lane Hutson and there's definitely a bit of a Crosby-Letang comparison in my mind.

We don't talk about it enough, but Celebrini was also a riser this year. He was expected to be 1st overall, but he outperformed expectations and blew everyone else away. He might be a better overall player than any of the forwards picked last year when all is said and done.

I like Guhle a whole lot, and don't want to give him or Dach up, but if I look at it player by player

Celebrini &gt; Guhle
Celebrini &gt; Dach
Celebrini &gt; Iginla/Lindstrom
Celebrini &gt; Calgary 2026 1st (cause that's where I see the pick ending up)

The only thing I'm not sure about is HOW much better. I think it might be a lot.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 5:32 a.m.
Thread: Questions for my fellow Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeyfan1986</b></div><div>I would rather focus on getting a top RHD on free agency (Roy/Durzi/Hronek). That way Savard is able to go down to the 3rd pairing. We don't know when Reinbacher will join the Habs(one year in Laval would be a great start for him). Mailloux could fill the 2nd pairing for now. The list above does not include any Defense. I currently would rate them at 3rd line players. I am still wary of signing and player to big dollar that didn't play for Montreal (you can thank Bergevin to Drouin, I know they are not comparable). I just don't want them to be handcuffed by "potentially" a bad contract again.

As for Suzuki, He still has a few years to truly join the Barkov/Bergeron Selke conversation. He will get there, but there is still growth to be made.</div></div>

Hughes literally talked about how he won't add a RHD in his end of year presser. He said he would see that as sacrificing the future for the present. Does not want to block Reinbacher &amp; Mailloux's path to the NHL.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 10:06 a.m.
Thread: Questions for my fellow Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Campabee</b></div><div>I personally agree, if a move can be made that improves the long-term future then you go for it. The question really becomes, is Reinhart going to be available? For me the answer is probably very unlikely.

I also wouldn't personally break up the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line, we need a line that compliments that.

I have some reservations about Dach being able to be healthy for an entire season, I know I have been very vocal on this but if we want to be competitive, we need to be able to count on our 2C to help carry the load for an entire season. I personally would like to see a move for PLD or Danault to help alleviate these concerns.

Adding another scoring winger would also be a must for me, I think Someone like Reinhart, Batherson, Fiala or even Zegras would be a great fit but they have to be able to finish at a rate of about 25+ goals or 50+ points per season and be under 28.</div></div>

I know you want to accelerate even more than I do! Good for you, please stick to your guns and share a contrarian perspective!

I believe in Dach, though I admit my confidence is dancing on a pin. If he doesn't play at least 75 games next season I'm gonna start calling for the Hab to dump him.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:52 a.m.
Thread: Questions for my fellow Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_Habs_fan</b></div><div>I mean, we we're playing meaningful games for most of the season, even down the last stretch of the season the team was still giving it their all. There's no guarantee jumping the gun would yield any results either, look at Ottawa going for Debrincat, Chychrun, Giroux, Tarasenko and nothing has worked for them, they tried to jump the gun and now they look lost. MSL has also done a really nice job of coaching and will continue to get the most out of the players, the fear that we're teaching players it's okay to lose is irrational.</div></div>

First off: Why is it irrational for us but rational for Ottawa, Buffalo, Edmonton?

Second: DeBrincat wasn't great, but he was always a risky player to add at his size. Giroux, Chychrun, &amp; Tarasenko came as advertised and performed well. The players around them let them down up and down the lineup, especially in Goal.

The Habs actually have a lot more veterans up and down the lineup than the Sens did in any of those 2 seasons, and that's where the Sens went wrong. They even said it at this year's exit meetings. "Maybe we waited too long".

Cautionary tale for the Habs to be honest.

Armia, Gallagher &amp; Evans all had excellent bottom 6 seasons. Dvorak I believe will rebound to his usual half a point per game and terrific faceoff percentage.

The truth is our bottom 6 vets are an asset and not a liability as many believe.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:34 a.m.
Thread: Questions for my fellow Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drambui</b></div><div>agree that trading matheson makes no sense!

having said that, going for a high end foward with our cap space is exaxtly why team like ottawa, buffalo and even edmonton were bad for so long.
we have to wait for our defensive corp to be ready.
we had a bottom 7 defense last year and icing the same one while adding rookie wont change over a year!

we need more scoring sure, but good scoring with bad defense is why these teams were bad for so long. waiting and building from the back end matters!</div></div>

I think the defense would improve because:

1) Assume some sophomore defenders get better in their 3rd seasons.

2) Reinhart is good defensively and so are Caufield (people don't realize, but he is) and Slaf. Now you will have a 2nd line who can play a 2-way game.

3) The best defense is a good offense!
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:31 a.m.
Thread: Questions for my fellow Habs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kris1983</b></div><div>I haven't watched much of Reinhart, but what I do know about him is, he is great defensively, scored 50+ goals and can be a game breaker.

As people and pundits are saying Suzuki and Barkov are comparable players, so it's not that far of a reach to assume Reinhart's production with Suzuki would be similar.

I'd be happy if the habs throw money at him. . but for no more than 5 years. 5 Years at 12 Million would be great for the player and team, Reinhart's deal would expire one year before Suzuki's. Reinhart would be 33 at expiry, which should give him enough time for one last pay day, that won't happen at 35 or 36.

The habs then have control of Suzy, Slaf, Caufield, Reinhart, Dach, Newhook, Guhle, Hutson and Reinbacher for the next 5+ years. If the progression of the current habs continue, we are in for a good run.</div></div>

Interesting perspective, thanks for sharing!

I think we would need to be around 12.5+ on a 5 year deal, but I get your perspective and am onboard if they choose to go that way.