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Danny12357
Member Since
Jul. 12, 2018
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
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Washington Capitals
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Forum:
NHL Trades
Mar. 6 at 3:09 p.m.
Thread:
(COL/BUF) - Byram for Mittelstadt
If I had heard before the deadline that the Avs would be trading away Byram and a 1st on the same day, I would have assumed Sakic had lost his mind, however I think we just witnessed a masterclass in asset management.
This trade isn't about the Avs pulling one over on rival GMs, they paid fair prices in both circumstances, however the trades are such a tidy fit for their organizational needs, their cap situation, their depth, their cup window, and address their weaknesses so well by trading assets that likely aren't as valuable to the Avs as they will be to other teams, that Sakic wins without having to negotiate anyone into giving him assets at rock bottom prices.
Great work for them, a real push for another cup feels imminent.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Mar. 4 at 9:00 a.m.
Thread:
Vancouver Canucks signed Elias Pettersson (8 Years / $11,600,000 AAV)
This is a pretty huge W for the Canucks. This had all the markings of a deal that a team "has" to make, meaning the player could have used the leverage to get a contract that is very "meh". This deal isn't some home run steal, but it's an amount you can definitiely live with all the way through the term in a rising cap world, and for the type player you are signing, it's excellent work to get any real surplus value.
The Canucks now have an elite #1C, elite #1D, and elite #1G all signed for 2 more years at reasonable cap hits. Say what you will about some management decisions, the reality is that if you have that to build around, you have a roster that is well ahead of the NHL average. Throw in that they have less troubling cap issues and this team should be well positioned to make regular playoff appearances and even go on a run or two over the next handful of seasons.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 26 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread:
Chicago Blackhawks signed Petr Mrázek (2 Years / $4,250,000 AAV)
This is a tough deal to evaluate.
In a vacuum, no sensible argument suggests that Mrazek has been good enough to earn this salary from a contender. However, I get entirely that teams looking for lottery picks for a few years will pay a premium for good veterans to help establish some stability during the transition. The term is fine for Chicago's plans, and Mrazek seems to have found a groove and is playing respectable hockey.
I have seen some comments that overpaying now will be hard to reign in later, but I think that is overblown. I am not saying KD won't overpay later, but it isn't about what he is doing now, it's about how he values players now. If he fully understands he's overpaying stabilizing veterans to attract them to a team that is going to lose a lot, then shifting those values as the team improves won't be difficult. The reality is he's likely signing a lot of 1-2 years deals for too much AAV in the transition, and those deals are so far removed from the important long term contacts he needs to sign letter, they won't really have any impact.
However, if KD thinks he has a steal in Mrazek in terms of value (I don't think this is true), then he simply doesn't value players well, and it will be an ongoing issue, but not because of this contract establishing a precedent, it will simply be that KD overpays in general. Either way, I think the risk of "establishing a precedent or culture of overpaying players" is overblown.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 26 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Owen Tippett (8 Years / $6,200,000 AAV)
The deal has risk, but without that you weren't getting this level of upside.
Tippett is 24, so the 8 year term is a benefit in a rising cap environment, not a negative. At $6.2M you don't need Tippett to be a superstar for this deal to be solid, you just need him to be an adequate top 6 winger. Even if he only tops out at what he's shown this year, the deal likely ages well simply with a rising cap, and if he has the ability to take a step, there is a good chance for substantial surplus value.
In terms of team fit, Philly is in the phase where taking a few of these types of risks to lock in some certainty is a good strategy, so all around I like this deal for Philly. I mean there is risk, but that is how you get value, taking measured risks where the upside is just simply bigger than the downside. If you are good at evaluating those, you will gain more value than you lose by a significant margin, and this looks like a smart bet.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 12 at 12:00 p.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander (8 Years / $11,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Just to add, success at the cap really can only be measured with success on the ice. Virtually all teams spend to the cap. Dubas's Leafs made the playoffs every year and one playoff round.
Trevling's Flames missed the playoffs as much as they made it. Trevling two signings of Huberdeau and Kadri should have excluded him from ever being an NHL GM again.
I was no fan of Dubas with his TDL trades and some poor signings, but certainly he did better than Trevling.
PS like your analysis.</div></div>
I appreciate it. I think Dubas was a good GM, very good when factoring in his lack of experience, but he wasn't "The best GM" and like every GM in hockey, he had things he did really well, and things he didn't do as well. Signing contracts was actually a strength, and his trades were often creative. But he seemed to also know what his image was, and he seemed to resent it and sometimes make moves that made no sense just to offset that image. Whether it was selling the farm for a broken foligno to show how much he cares about grit and character, or forcing a trade due to optics like when he traded away Kadri.
I don't get why every analysis of every GM is they were either the GOAT or they sucked. Need to be more room for nuance and critique where you can say something positive or negative about a GM without painting every decision they make in one particular light. No GM has a 100% hit it out of the park track record.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 10 at 1:44 p.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander (8 Years / $11,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brad_Treliving</b></div><div>No blame on Tre for this terrible contract. If calculator boy Dubas set the culture straight in Toronto, there will be discounts. Started by overpaying on both Marner and Tavares, the others followed suit. Ultimately, glad Nylander is here for 8 years
Tre was in a lose-lose situation. Either let Nylander walk, get minimal value in a trade, or overpay him</div></div>
This is a bad take, and not backed up by evidence.
Dubas signed Willy to a $7M contract where he averaged 33G - & 77Pts per 82 Games so far over the life of that contract. Likely finishes that deal ahead of that pace. Excellent value.
Marner signed for $10.9M, average 32G & 98 pts per 82GP so far over the life of that contract, again excellent value.
Matthews signed for 11.6M and average an ridiculous 59 goals & 103pts per 82GP over that contract, and seems intent on pushing that higher again this year. Excellent value.
Treliving is the one of the two GMs with a penchant for signing bad deals to players near and entering their 30's, so I don't really get how this contract is somehow Dubas mess, given that the track record of the two GMs would indicate which of them has been better at managing the cap, and it's clearly Dubas, as BT's track record in that regard speaks for itself.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jan. 8 at 1:43 p.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander (8 Years / $11,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>First of all, Nylander is worth 11 mil. I've been saying this for a long time now. If you don't think so - you're simply wrong
Second, he signed at a similar cap% as comparable wingers at the time like Benn, Stone, and Perry. Don't let the raw number fool you this isnt out of the blue.
Third and most importantly, Trev completely ****ed this negotiation up. If they were scared Nylander might walk - the time to "cave in" was in the summer. As it stands Nylander is at peak value and there is no reason to cave now 30 some odd games after refusing to go above 9mil. They should have waited out the year and let Reinhart get a comparable deal or let Willie cool off. Even if he didn't they could always just pay him this in June no problem. No one in the league can match 92 million dollars!
There was no risk!
What a horrible GM Trev has turned out to be. Worst fears confirmed about him
Fourth, I am very exited to have Willie be a life long leaf. Amazing player who has the perfect mentality for the market. Ideal Leaf and for that reason its still a good deal even with Trev being a panicky idiot.
I expect CF to vote it down. They also voted down both Matthews deals so that should tell you how little you should value that
Of course there are the usual worries about deals like this aging but I don't see any reason to suggest the risk is any more than any other comparable star so whatever. Would have liked us to get this down to 5 or 6 years given the aav, but I'll live with it.
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDVC7IAWgAI_jSc?format=jpg&name=small" alt="GDVC7IAWgAI_jSc?format=jpg&name=small">
I figure he will drop down to somewhere around a point per game to a 100 point pace for the next few years, and that's fine for what he will cost</div></div>
This is pretty bang on. This contract is far better than losing Nylander for nothing, and if you were trying to win this player over to your team, you sign it in a heartbeat.
The big L here for BT is that he allowed it to get to this point. There was a lot of risk of this happening, and it was obviously there. Expectations changed the second the NHL announced a cap increase for next season, and throw in Nylander's point streak and another year where he just plain looks better than the year prior (which has been Nylander's trajectory) and you basically have a GM that lit $1.5M in cap space on fire trying to save $500K. That's a terrible bet.
Reality is, when the Leafs ask was just under $9M and Nylander was at $10M, they should have realized there was more for Nylander to gain than the Leafs, and should have hammered away at it until a deal was done in the offseason. You could have just caved and gave him $10M and that would have been a win in hindsight.
BT's decision making has been mostly very poor with Toronto, but I think it's Shanahan that really should be feeling the heat. Forget about what people think of Dubas, but how does a president of hockey operations go from offering an extension to Dubas to firing him over a 48 hour period with no backup plan in place? What other organization would fire their GM in the middle of their competitive window? I mean I get the lack of playoff wins, but still, no other team would fire a GM of a team that has the record that the Leafs had over the last 5 seasons, especially going into an absolutely critical 24 month window where every star forward will need a new contract.
If this Leafs core ever wins, it's now going to be in spite of management, not assisted by it.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 26, 2023 at 11:13 a.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Sebastian Aho (8 Years / $9,750,000 AAV)
This is a great deal for Carolina, and it's a good example of why teams shouldn't be so concerned about essentially mandating an 8 year deal out of the ELC. I know Carolina didn't negotiate the 5 year deal, but the reality is that for 5 years Carolina saved a little AAV versus what an 8 year deal would have cost, and this deal is so much less risky to give to someone who will be 26 when it kicks in versus 28.
Now Carolina may end up getting 16 years of Aho where he never once wasn't worth his current cap hit. That's so valuable, then it's worth the risks associated with going with a shorter term out of the ELC.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 25, 2023 at 11:54 a.m.
Thread:
Florida Panthers signed Eetu Luostarinen (3 Years / $3,000,000 AAV)
Really good work here by the Panthers. This deal doesn't kick in until 2024, so getting a 24 year old to sign early, before the cap is going up, to such a reasonable contract is just good business. I know he was an RFA at the end of this, but there was no requirement for him to sign early, and this makes deals like the Kampf deal look so much worse. Younger better player for only $600k more? Easy W.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 10, 2023 at 9:35 a.m.
Thread:
Detroit Red Wings signed Alex DeBrincat (4 Years / $7,875,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>If Detroit doesn't make the playoffs now, then the Yzerplan is officially a miss.</div></div>
Honestly, I think it's going to be a miss. I am not sure what the Yzerplan is to be honest. I like this deal in a vacuum, both the term and the price paid to get the player, but when you look at what Yzerman is doing, the team has a lot of cap committed to inconsequential players, most of which are overpayments, and in a very deep talented Atlantic Division, it doesn't look like nearly enough to get over the hump.
Detroit's strength is their forward group, and that group can be good enough to contend, but only if both the Blue Line and Goalie position are very strong, with one of them being elite. That isn't the case in Detroit, and that forward group isn't better than any of Toronto, Tampa, Boston, Florida, Buffalo or Ottawa. Boston and Tampa might take a step back, but both were so good that they have room to take a step back and still be very competitive. Detroit's best forward wouldn't be the best forward on any of those other teams, so I really can't see how they plan to make the playoffs without getting lucky in some regard.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 10, 2023 at 8:58 a.m.
Thread:
Detroit Red Wings signed Alex DeBrincat (4 Years / $7,875,000 AAV)
I like these types of deals a lot in general, the biggest issue here is going to be deciding what to do with 29 year old Debrincat. He is a very good player, but he's not in that elite category, and the undisputed best recipe for an awful next contract is a 29 year old very good player coming off of a good value contract.
Either way though, I don't think Teams should be afraid of the next deal when signing the current one. Debrincat wanted too much money for what he is worth right now to go longer term, and that only makes sense if you are getting good value on the back half of the deal, which is a lot of question marks regarding the cap at that time, and Debrincat's decline in his 30's. Instead, Detoit signs Debrincat for essentially his peak value years (25-29) at a cap number that is fair today, but will likely be a value contract in years 2-4, and given similar deals we have seen, can let the next contract be someone else's problem if the number doesn't make sense.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 10, 2023 at 8:47 a.m.
Thread:
(OTT/DET) - DeBrincat for Kubalik, Sebrango, 2024 4th (DET), 2024 1st (DET)
Detroit wins the trade pretty clearly.
Ottawa was in a tough spot, and acquiring Debrincat at all really amounted to a waste of assets. It's too bad, because I don't think the logic was bad, and even though it didn't turn out well, the reason the risk was worth it, is that this is the worst case scenario because of his RFA status. The problem is, the worst case scenario is what happened, and what Ottawa now has to live with.
Detroit wins the deal, but man I have no idea what the plan is. Are they competitive in this 4 year window? Their roster doesn't look that great, and they keep signing stop gap players to big contracts. Are Copp and Compher really a pair of forwards to commit nearly $11M in cap space to for the next several years?
Looking at Detroit right now, they have a decent forward group, but it's a group that could be very competitive for a team that has an elite Blueline, or Very good blueline and elite goalie. Instead, they have a decent forward group, but that is their strength, and it isn't nearly strong enough to make up for that blueline or the fact they have keep rolling the dice in net and never really come out with anything special. Again, this deal is good, but I just wonder what the plan is in Detroit, because it seems like a lot of just grasping at straws.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 4, 2023 at 9:38 a.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Michael Bunting (3 Years / $4,500,000 AAV)
Good deal for Carolina. Bunting is a good contributor to an offensive line, and he's good at getting under the opponents skin and drawing penalties. I think that will work well with Carolina's style. The 3 year term is fair, and I think they got him at a contract number that doesn't require him to put up quite the same numbers as he did in Toronto to be a valuable addition.
Carolina doesn't have a spot in the line up comparable to playing 3rd wheel to Matthews and Marner (Not many do), but they are deeper, meaning they probably aren't as beholden to playing him in a particular spot in the line up for him to be effective.
Good deal for arguably the smartest front office in hockey.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 4, 2023 at 9:30 a.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed Max Domi (1 Year / $3,000,000 AAV)
Very easy deal to like. Domi has been worth at least $3M a year over the last few years, so he's a safe bet to be a good value. He's another fiesty personality, and while he's in no way a physical force, he basically replaces Michael Bunting's agitator role, with a little more willingness to fight back.
After a very rough day one of free agency, Treliving really rounded things out in day 2. Toronto isn't necessarily better (likely better offensively, weaker defensively, but grittier), but this is a team that was talented enough to win, and they really didn't take a big step back in that department, so now they are trying to change the identity and mix, and they really seem to have done that. Hard to dislike this signing or the Bertuzzi signing, as both players are worth those deals regardless of any intangibles, so when you like those as well, it's an easy win. 1 year deals also give Toronto a ton of flexibility.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jun. 29, 2023 at 3:54 p.m.
Thread:
(NYI/CHI) - Bailey, 2026 2nd (NYI) for Future considerations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Danny12357</b></div><div>This is an easy Blackhawks win. Not all cap dumps are equal, as the player you absorb and actual salary paid are a real consideration.
Chicago has a legitimate need for NHL veteran's to insulate their picks and prospects, and chances are Chicago would have to pay a bit of a premium in free agency to sign those players. Maybe they could have gotten a better player on a 1 year $3.5M (Bailey's real dollar cost next season) contract in free agency, but I can't imagine they would be much better off, so a 2nd round pick to jump the line and absorb some dead cap for a year is an easy deal to justify.
Paying a 2nd to remove a $5M contract isn't necessarily awful, but it's not ideal, and it really feels like a steep price to pay given the fact that Bailey is still a decent 3rd line winger (Maybe better if last year was more of a down year than pure decline), only has a year left, and is making considerably less than his cap hit.</div></div>
Well the first part of this take aged poorly haha. I didn't see Bailey play much last year, his point totals were down, but I assumed with how Bad Chicago is, that a veteran rebound candidate would be worth a little something, but apparently they will be buying him out. They gave Foligno $4M for a year by choice, so not sure why keeping Bailey on the roster for $3.5M is so unappetizing, but a 2nd for nothing but cap space and cash is still a win for a team that is rebuilding.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jun. 29, 2023 at 11:45 a.m.
Thread:
New Jersey Devils signed Timo Meier (8 Years / $8,800,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>budgeteam</b></div><div>You can't just judge players by production, or else Brandon Pirri would be an NHLer on a multi-million dollar contract.
Teams want to win in the playoffs. Teams need size and strength to win. Players who bring that and can also score are extremely important. A 30/60 playoff style warrior is worth more than a 40/80 undersized and/or soft player because that regular season production doesn't always translate to winning in the playoffs. It's obviously not entirely about size, but also play style. There are some bigger players who are soft and lazy, and some smaller players like a Pageau who play like they are 7 feet tall...but you get the idea.</div></div>
Meier is the heavier and more physical player though. Dubois is "Nastier", but that leads to an awful lot of penatlies taken, and neither player has enough of a playoff track record or winning pedigree, so I don't see those are reasons to try and put Dubois on Meier level despite the fact that Meier has been a far more effective player thus far in his career.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jun. 29, 2023 at 11:41 a.m.
Thread:
New Jersey Devils signed Timo Meier (8 Years / $8,800,000 AAV)
This is a great deal for the devils.
Meier is an elite play driving winger with a lot more physical edge than he gets credit for. He's a monster in transition and carrying the puck up the ice, so Jersey can either decide to completely overwhelm teams by putting him and Hughes together, or play about 2/3's of every game with at least one of them on the ice at all times. Either way, that's a luxury.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jun. 29, 2023 at 11:35 a.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed David Kämpf (4 Years / $2,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>McSorley</b></div><div>I can't wait to see the Leafs fans after Matthews and Nylander extensions.
Kampf 2.4M: NO
Nylander 10M: YES
Matthews 13M: YES</div></div>
Are you suggesting that Nylander and Matthew's at $10M and $13M respectively are worse contracts than Kampf at $2.4M?
Nylander isn't getting $10M, it's likely high 8's or low 9's, but I would take Nylander at $10M over $2.4M for David Kampf any day of the week.
Also, Matthews is easily getting more than $13M, and he will likely be a bargain at just about any number he does get. If he gets 6 times Kampf's number, that's still a far far better allocation of cap space.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jun. 29, 2023 at 11:30 a.m.
Thread:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed David Kämpf (4 Years / $2,400,000 AAV)
Very underwhelming first signing from BT in Toronto. This AAV is about $750k-$1M too high on even a 1 year deal, so the fact the term didn't bring it down is kind of insane IMO.
This won't destroy Toronto's cap sheet in a single signing, but people gripe over what they consider to be overpayments to the stars, but this is as big an overpayment as any contract on their books in terms of cap dollars, and it's on a contract that you simply didn't need to sign.
Between this, and making a big reach with the 28th pick in the draft, BT had a very underwhelming first active day as manager.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jun. 29, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread:
(NYI/CHI) - Bailey, 2026 2nd (NYI) for Future considerations
This is an easy Blackhawks win. Not all cap dumps are equal, as the player you absorb and actual salary paid are a real consideration.
Chicago has a legitimate need for NHL veteran's to insulate their picks and prospects, and chances are Chicago would have to pay a bit of a premium in free agency to sign those players. Maybe they could have gotten a better player on a 1 year $3.5M (Bailey's real dollar cost next season) contract in free agency, but I can't imagine they would be much better off, so a 2nd round pick to jump the line and absorb some dead cap for a year is an easy deal to justify.
Paying a 2nd to remove a $5M contract isn't necessarily awful, but it's not ideal, and it really feels like a steep price to pay given the fact that Bailey is still a decent 3rd line winger (Maybe better if last year was more of a down year than pure decline), only has a year left, and is making considerably less than his cap hit.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jun. 5, 2023 at 2:23 p.m.
Thread:
Montreal Canadiens signed Cole Caufield (8 Years / $7,850,000 AAV)
I love this type of deal for Montreal. There is risk, but the upside far outweighs the downside in my opinion.
While those pointing out that Caulfield hasn't really played up to this contract as of yet, you are right! He hasn't, but you don't buy what a player has done, you bet on what they will be, and I think with an 8 year term, there are more scenarios where this turns into a great value for the Habs than turns into an albatross, so it's a good bet.
Worst case scenario, Caulfield doesn't improve, and what you get is a empty calorie goal scorer. Think Brock Boeser (so far). That's probably not worth this current AAV, but he has the type of skill that teams may gamble on, and the cap will likely increase enough that this won't be a crazy overpay, just disappointing.
On the upside, Caulfield could be a perrenial 45+ goal scorer, powerplay weapon, and if he improves his overall offensive (and defensive) play to become a more well rounded weapon, this is the type of contract that has you saving millions per year below what you would expect to pay for that player, especially as the cap rises.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Mar. 17, 2023 at 12:48 p.m.
Thread:
Boston Bruins signed David Pastrnak (8 Years / $11,250,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DongLord23</b></div><div>Bergeron was not typical 1C money. Other 1Cs at the time.
Malkin 8x9.5M
Crosby 12x8.7M
Staal 7x8.25M
Getzlaf 8x8.25M
Stamkos 5x7.5M
....
Bergeron 8x6.875M
It was a huge discount compared to other top centers. Dude could've easily pushed for more than 8M a year.
Marchand was also a team friendly deal. He was 6th in goals and got 6.125M. His deal was similar to Kyle Okposo & Brandon Saad. He could've also pushed for way more.</div></div>
I don't see Bergeron's deal as a huge discount compared to that list when you take it into context. That was Bergeron's 4th contract, and the list you mentioned was 2nd and 3rd contracts. Bergeron was older than any of those players were at the time of signing, meaning those 8 years were riskier. I think he could absolutely have pushed for more, but that's almost always true, and also would have been true for most of those players. Bergeron managed to age so much better than anyone could have expected given his early career injury history, and that is a huge part of that deal turning out to be such a massive value for the Bruins.
Marchand is a bit of a different animal. He again was older, that was his 4th contract, and his contract season was considered a bit of a breakout year, but he was still very underrated by the league (including the Bruins), so I am not sure he could have pushed the deal he got all that much higher. A 7 year deal from the open market would have been a higher AAV for sure, but I doubt he had the clout at that time to get much north of $7M unless he was willing to sign with just anyone. He was a better player than Okposo, but I don't think that was the consensus opinon back when he signed that deal, and again, it's hindsight that makes it look like he took some massive discount.
Marchand though was more of a case of a team finally realizing what they had. Marchand didn't just magically become an offensive force at 28. He was already putting up superstar level production, but his reputation as a shift disturber seemed to decrease the attention his ridiculous offensive skills should have garnered. The guy started putting up elite level scoring rates from his sophmore season onward. The totals just lagged the reality because he was getting less than 15 minutes a night, playing with 3rd line talent mostly and very little powerplay time. Even in his breakout season, he barely got any powerplay time, and as soon as he got the extra minutes with more skilled line mates and top PP time, his totals went up, but his production rates were quite similar.
The reality with Marchand is the Bruins did well by finally figuring out what they had, but signing him before it was obvious that he was an absolute superstar. Both Bergeron and Marchand's contracts were amazing value, but I think that's something that became more obvious after the fact than something that was common knowledge at the time of signing, so I don't know there was as much more money out there for them to get than was often said. The Bruins didn't do well on those deals because the players took incredibly selfless discounts, I think they just understood those players worth more than many other teams would have, and those deals ended up being terrific bets.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Mar. 17, 2023 at 12:11 p.m.
Thread:
Boston Bruins signed David Pastrnak (8 Years / $11,250,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jr400</b></div><div>Players who take a big home team discount are usually later in their careers and have already made big money. This is his time to cash in. He probably could have got more AAV on the open market, but he wouldn't have got the 8th year, so I wouldn't count that as taking less to stay in Boston.</div></div>
I do think he took less than the maximum he could have gotten on the open market, but that's not unique, and is somewhat ingrained in hockey culture. I can't remember the last time an NHL superstar really tried to maximize the value on a contract, even when they make it to the open market. Gaudreau is the most recent example, and he absolutely could have gotten more than he took, and Tavares apparently could have as well. The last superstar I can think of that really seemed like they were trying to maximize their contract was Kovalchuk.
Either way, the Bruins do well here, but it does somewhat debunk the narrative that Bruins players just take way less to stay as Bruins. It's a good deal for them, but it's very much in line with what you would expect a contender to offer to retain a player of Pastranak's calibre.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Mar. 6, 2023 at 7:52 a.m.
Thread:
(DET/VAN) - Hronek for 2023 1st and 2nd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>This.
Drives me so crazy when people say a team in their window lost a trade and overpaid. What's the alternative? Sit on your hands and wait out the window. Sometimes, you dont get what you want, sometimes, you have to fold, it doesnt mean that you lose in the end.
Wininng trades is meaningless in the scheme of things. Marc Bergevin might have won every trade, I think, besides Drouin but he read his team wrong when they needed to tear it down and not continue to be average with elite goaltending from Price.</div></div>
Bergevin is one of the first GMs I think of when talking about how much more important it is to prioritize long term strategy over winning every single trade, but the best trade to showcase the impact is the J.T. Miller trade to Vancouver.
Looking only at the return for Miller compared to his cap hit, age, and production after the trade should have made that a slam dunk win for Vancouver. Instead Vancouver has wasted 4 seasons of Petterson and Hughes, and are in worse shape than they started with an older core, worse cap situation, and weak prospect pool, while Tampa has been easily the most successful NHL franchise since that trade has been made. This is largely driven by the fact that Tampa made a trade that was rationally based on where they were as an organization, and what they needed to succeed, while Vancouver made their trade based on essentially on the delusion that they were far closer to being a contender than they were.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Mar. 2, 2023 at 8:02 a.m.
Thread:
(DET/VAN) - Hronek for 2023 1st and 2nd
This trade is horrible for Vancouver, and it's the best move Yzerman has made in quite awhile.
The thing with this trade is that the value isn't crazy. If Edmonton made a similar trade, you can accept it. This is because when you trade in a way that makes strategic sense for where your team is on it's trajectory, you don't need to "win" every trade. You can break even on trades, or even lose in terms of overall value, but if the trades converts value that is less useful for you into value that is more useful, you can do ok, and your moves are defensible and less risky. In those scenarios, you can either break even, or win your trades on average, without worrying about the direct outcome of each individual trade. It's why the strategy of tearing it down and building it up is so strong. Just following the blueprint and doing ok in your trades works out fine. If you are in the rebuild mode, you can trade current value for future value, and as long as you do OK on average, your blueprint will lead to a period of contention and relevance. You need to stick to it, and avoid any false starts, but you don't need to win every single trade outright. Same is true with contenders, you can somewhat trade away assets that would mostly have helped you stay mediocre during a phase where maybe you should be rebuilding again, because those assets aren't going to be as valuable to you as players that can help your core potentially maximize their window.
However to do a real Re-tool on the fly, which is apparently what Vancouver is insisting on, you need to win your trades. Because you are basically trading current/near future value for current/near future value, the only way you improve is if you get significantly more value back than you traded away. Vancouver has not done that in this trade. They paid max value for a player that doesn't put them over the hump. The team that started this season was obviously no where near good enough to compete. Next year they will start without Horvat, but have Hronek and Beauvllier. That's a downgrade, and what they got for that downgrade, and that downgrade takes up as much cap space as they would likely have had to use to sign Horvat, and they got Raty as the prize for taking that downgrade. That just makes no sense.
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