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Philipp Grubauer's potential/trade value?

Mar. 26, 2018 at 5:01 p.m.
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Grubauer is the highest value, expiring contract goaltender heading into the offseason (aside from Hellebuyck, but he's not going anywhere). Coming off of a great season and still having RFA status at age 26 makes him a prime target for teams needing a starting goalie.

If I were the Islanders, I would offer Washington a 2nd, a 3rd, and the rights to Calvin de Haan. Washington needs picks and a good top 4 defenseman, especially since it's unclear if Carlson will re-sign. The Islanders need a starting goaltender, and I'm guessing they're not looking to bring back de Haan, as they only offered him a 1 year deal last season that expires when he's a UFA.
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Mar. 26, 2018 at 5:32 p.m.
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Quoting: Daryl
Your the Caps fan @krakowitz so I want to hear your thoughts on this:

Would you be open to Washington trading Holtby? If the Caps could retrieve a package of picks and prospects for Holtby and then hand Grubauer the reins, what would you think of it? I'm not saying this would happen or should happen, I'm just curious to see what a Caps fan would think of it.


I would certainly be open to it. It would have to include at least two really good future pieces (a first and top prospect). Grubauer has shown recently that he can handle some more starts. If Samsonov isn't ready to be the backup next year, I'd like us to bring in a good #2 just in case Gruby can only handle around 50-55 starts. But if it gives us a good prospect or two, I'm all for it.
Mar. 26, 2018 at 5:35 p.m.
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Grubauer is the highest value, expiring contract goaltender heading into the offseason (aside from Hellebuyck, but he's not going anywhere). Coming off of a great season and still having RFA status at age 26 makes him a prime target for teams needing a starting goalie.

If I were the Islanders, I would offer Washington a 2nd, a 3rd, and the rights to Calvin de Haan. Washington needs picks and a good top 4 defenseman, especially since it's unclear if Carlson will re-sign. The Islanders need a starting goaltender, and I'm guessing they're not looking to bring back de Haan, as they only offered him a 1 year deal last season that expires when he's a UFA.


I'd rather trade Grubauer to the West if possible. Also, De Haan isn't a huge fit for us, especially since Djoos has been one of our best defensemen this year (but Trotz decides to scratch him). If Djoos wasn't such a success with us, I'd say De Haan is a great fit.
Mar. 26, 2018 at 6:35 p.m.
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My question is this: is Grubauer's stats inflated behind the Washington team scoring, style, etc. and is there a similar option available for a cheaper price (say Petr Mrazek)?
Apr. 3, 2018 at 12:41 a.m.
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Why not move holtby, save cap space, and keep grueby? Just a thought.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 4:22 p.m.
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Goalies have little value, I'm sure there would be some interest but not "first round pick" interest.

I'm sure Montreal would move Lindgren too.. Goalies with potential to start rarely stay in backup roles.

Try a third round pick - that's what Scott Darling got.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 4:43 p.m.
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Edited Apr. 3, 2018 at 4:53 p.m.
Quoting: HawksFan28
Goalies have little value, I'm sure there would be some interest but not "first round pick" interest.

I'm sure Montreal would move Lindgren too.. Goalies with potential to start rarely stay in backup roles.

Try a third round pick - that's what Scott Darling got.


Darling was a UFA so he was only being moved for brief negotiating rights. Grubauer will still be a RFA, so he'll be under full team control. He's also 2 years younger than Darling was when he was traded.

Young goaltenders with term/control definitely have value. Frederik Andersen was moved for a late 1st and a 2nd when he was still a RFA. Antti Raanta was moved (along with Derek Stepan) for a package that included a top 10 1st and a decent defensive prospect. Martin Jones was traded for a 1st and a prospect. Robin Lehner was traded for a 1st. Cory Schneider was traded for a 1st.

The Darling trade is more comparable to Dallas trading a 4th for Ben Bishop.
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Apr. 3, 2018 at 4:52 p.m.
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Darling was a UFA so he was only being moved for brief negotiating rights. Grubauer will still be a RFA, so he'll be under full team control. He's also 2 years younger than Darling was when he was traded.


And a 3rd round pick was a significant overpayment too.

There is no market for goalies, the strong majority of teams have their starters already..... It's supply and demand and there is no demand and teams aren't going to burn a first round pick on a goalie. Heck, most teams wont even draft a goalie in the first round. So they're not going to give up a first round pick - a player that could fill a role in the next year or 2 for a goalie that may be able to start.....

Sure a 3rd round pick tho, that I could see.

IMO, I don't even think Price is worth a 1st round pick, factoring in the season he had and that he makes 10M for the next 8 years.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 5:04 p.m.
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
My question is this: is Grubauer's stats inflated behind the Washington team scoring, style, etc. and is there a similar option available for a cheaper price (say Petr Mrazek)?


Do you actually watch the Caps to know how much Grubauer has to do? The team defense is horrendous, and scoring only affects wins and losses. His GAA and SV% since Nov. 1 are the best in the NHL (with a minimum amount of appearances, but I don't remember what that figure was). Petr Mrazek, on the other hand, is straight bootycheacks. FOH with your Philly bias lmao
Apr. 3, 2018 at 5:09 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
Do you actually watch the Caps to know how much Grubauer has to do? The team defense is horrendous, and scoring only affects wins and losses. His GAA and SV% since Nov. 1 are the best in the NHL (with a minimum amount of appearances, but I don't remember what that figure was). Petr Mrazek, on the other hand, is straight bootycheacks. FOH with your Philly bias lmao


Not saying Mrazek is better - he has had some of the worst SV% since he was acquired (bottom-five or something like that). I'm questioning if the difference in Grubaurer and another goaltender that won't cost as much lol. So no, I don't have Philly bias. I don't particularly "like" Mrazek relative to Alex Lyon.

It's all about maximizing asset allocation, especially when trading for a goaltender.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 5:10 p.m.
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Quoting: mhockey91
Why not move holtby, save cap space, and keep grueby? Just a thought.


At this point, it's an option. We'd have to get a pretty solid collection of futures for him, which should save about $3M in cap space (projecting Grubauer's new deal is about $3M).

Quoting: HawksFan28
And a 3rd round pick was a significant overpayment too.

There is no market for goalies, the strong majority of teams have their starters already..... It's supply and demand and there is no demand and teams aren't going to burn a first round pick on a goalie. Heck, most teams wont even draft a goalie in the first round. So they're not going to give up a first round pick - a player that could fill a role in the next year or 2 for a goalie that may be able to start.....

Sure a 3rd round pick tho, that I could see.

IMO, I don't even think Price is worth a 1st round pick, factoring in the season he had and that he makes 10M for the next 8 years.


Teams don't take goalies in the first round because of how risky their development is. But this is a goalie that is already proven at the NHL level. RFA goalies becoming starters have worked almost always in recent years. There are plenty of teams that need stability in net (St. Louis, Carolina, NYI, Buffalo, etc). There is a market for him if the Caps put him on the block (it's either him or Holtby at this point).
Apr. 3, 2018 at 5:14 p.m.
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Not saying Mrazek is better - he has had some of the worst SV% since he was acquired (bottom-five or something like that). I'm questioning if the difference in Grubaurer and another goaltender that won't cost as much lol. So no, I don't have Philly bias. I don't particularly "like" Mrazek relative to Alex Lyon.

It's all about maximizing asset allocation, especially when trading for a goaltender.


Having a low end goalie like Mrazek doesn't get you success. Giving up anything for a starting goalie that doesn't give you a shot at the playoffs is not "maximizing asset allocation" at all. Grubauer has the upside to take a team to the playoffs. Acquiring him instead of wasting assets on still getting nowhere is the significantly better option.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 5:17 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
Having a low end goalie like Mrazek doesn't get you success. Giving up anything for a starting goalie that doesn't give you a shot at the playoffs is not "maximizing asset allocation" at all. Grubauer has the upside to take a team to the playoffs. Acquiring him instead of wasting assets on still getting nowhere is the significantly better option.


Philadelphia has some very poor defense (outside of Provorov, Gostisbehere, and Gudas) and is still in contention for a playoff spot (MN - 3) and has been rolling with Mrazek to get them into the playoffs.

It depends on the team - if you have a structured defense and an great penalty kill, you may not need to get the goaltender with the most upside. If you are a team that has weak structure on defense and needs a goaltender to push them to the playoffs, you would probably want Grubauer.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 5:22 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
At this point, it's an option. We'd have to get a pretty solid collection of futures for him, which should save about $3M in cap space (projecting Grubauer's new deal is about $3M).



Teams don't take goalies in the first round because of how risky their development is. But this is a goalie that is already proven at the NHL level. RFA goalies becoming starters have worked almost always in recent years. There are plenty of teams that need stability in net (St. Louis, Carolina, NYI, Buffalo, etc). There is a market for him if the Caps put him on the block (it's either him or Holtby at this point).


My point is that not many teams need a starter- I would be shocked if more than 2 teams had interest in Grubauer at the same time. A team could offer a 3rd and Washington could either take it or leave it, it wouldn't be like there is a better offer on the table...

When was the last time a goalie went for a first round pick anyway? heck, a second for that matter? probably a long time.

Also, in this era teams really like to develop their own goalies and just about every team has their "future" starter in their organization.. Washington has Samsonov for example, Philly Hart etc...

So yea, I doubt Grubauer (or any starter for that matter) gets a first round pick..... Any goalie that is worth a first round pick is too good to trade, lol.
Apr. 3, 2018 at 6:26 p.m.
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Philadelphia has some very poor defense (outside of Provorov, Gostisbehere, and Gudas) and is still in contention for a playoff spot (MN - 3) and has been rolling with Mrazek to get them into the playoffs.

It depends on the team - if you have a structured defense and an great penalty kill, you may not need to get the goaltender with the most upside. If you are a team that has weak structure on defense and needs a goaltender to push them to the playoffs, you would probably want Grubauer.



consistency is key for a goaltender. Mrazek had strong stretches in Detroit too but didn't work out in the end. that's what could hamper Grubauers trade value too. what was the bench mark for evaluating goaltenders? I remember reading 8000 shots. Grubauer has 100 games and is nowhere near that. a late 1st (altough playoff teams rarely seek starting goaltenders), two 2nds or a 2nd+prospect will probably do the trick.

(that being said: throw a offer sheet in WSHs way. do they spend 3M+ on a back up or grind their teeth and take the second rounder?) I
Apr. 3, 2018 at 7:35 p.m.
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Quoting: HawksFan28
My point is that not many teams need a starter- I would be shocked if more than 2 teams had interest in Grubauer at the same time. A team could offer a 3rd and Washington could either take it or leave it, it wouldn't be like there is a better offer on the table...

When was the last time a goalie went for a first round pick anyway? heck, a second for that matter? probably a long time.

Also, in this era teams really like to develop their own goalies and just about every team has their "future" starter in their organization.. Washington has Samsonov for example, Philly Hart etc...

So yea, I doubt Grubauer (or any starter for that matter) gets a first round pick..... Any goalie that is worth a first round pick is too good to trade, lol.


You don't remember the last time a goalie was traded for a first round pick? Martin Jones was traded for San Jose's 2016 1st. Robin Lehner went to Buffalo for a 2015 first round pick that I believe was originally Nashville's. Freddy Andersen went for a 1st and a 2nd right before the 2016 draft. Antti Raanta was traded with Stepan in a package for the #7 pick and a top four D prospect. Literally everything I just said is what @DoctorBreakfast said.

Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Darling was a UFA so he was only being moved for brief negotiating rights. Grubauer will still be a RFA, so he'll be under full team control. He's also 2 years younger than Darling was when he was traded.

Young goaltenders with term/control definitely have value. Frederik Andersen was moved for a late 1st and a 2nd when he was still a RFA. Antti Raanta was moved (along with Derek Stepan) for a package that included a top 10 1st and a decent defensive prospect. Martin Jones was traded for a 1st and a prospect. Robin Lehner was traded for a 1st. Cory Schneider was traded for a 1st.

The Darling trade is more comparable to Dallas trading a 4th for Ben Bishop.
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Apr. 4, 2018 at 4:13 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
You don't remember the last time a goalie was traded for a first round pick? Martin Jones was traded for San Jose's 2016 1st. Robin Lehner went to Buffalo for a 2015 first round pick that I believe was originally Nashville's. Freddy Andersen went for a 1st and a 2nd right before the 2016 draft. Antti Raanta was traded with Stepan in a package for the #7 pick and a top four D prospect. Literally everything I just said is what @DoctorBreakfast said.


Those guys were all legitimate starters at the time of those trades.

A player is only worth what a team is willing to give up, and that depends on the market. I highly doubt Grubauer will get a first round pick... What teams could be in the market for a goalie? The Islanders?
Apr. 4, 2018 at 5:12 p.m.
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Quoting: HawksFan28
Those guys were all legitimate starters at the time of those trades.

A player is only worth what a team is willing to give up, and that depends on the market. I highly doubt Grubauer will get a first round pick... What teams could be in the market for a goalie? The Islanders?


Do your research first before saying something like that. Jones made 15 starts with a .915 SV% the year before he got traded. Lehner had a 3.01 GAA and a .908 SV% before he got traded.
Apr. 5, 2018 at 10:04 a.m.
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Edited Apr. 5, 2018 at 1:47 p.m.
Quoting: HawksFan28
Those guys were all legitimate starters at the time of those trades.

A player is only worth what a team is willing to give up, and that depends on the market. I highly doubt Grubauer will get a first round pick... What teams could be in the market for a goalie? The Islanders?


No they weren't. Jones was a backup in Los Angeles. Andersen had mostly only worked in a tandem with John Gibson in Anaheim behind a strong defensive team (although you could call him a starter depending on your criteria). Lehner was a backup in Ottawa. Raanta was a backup in Chicago and with the Rangers. Schneider had just become a starter, but that was in the last half of a lockout-shortened season.
Apr. 5, 2018 at 1:01 p.m.
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@HawksFan28 nothing?
Apr. 5, 2018 at 1:28 p.m.
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don't know what is a worse scenario for the caps. grubauer playing so well that caps management don't want move him or the that fact is holtby at 6.1m is now taking a secondary role with the caps. imo holtby doesn't nearly get his value of previous years. if a trade that includes money coming back to the caps then it defeats the purpose of the trade to get cap space.
Apr. 5, 2018 at 4:33 p.m.
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Quoting: clark
don't know what is a worse scenario for the caps. grubauer playing so well that caps management don't want move him or the that fact is holtby at 6.1m is now taking a secondary role with the caps. imo holtby doesn't nearly get his value of previous years. if a trade that includes money coming back to the caps then it defeats the purpose of the trade to get cap space.


I think the trade would mostly be to maximize value, if Holtby yields a larger return than Grubauer. If Holtby brings back a player that is worth similar money at a different position, that has to be considered a success.
Apr. 5, 2018 at 4:50 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
@HawksFan28 nothing?


Nothing, what?

There is little evidence to support goalies fetch first round picks..... For every example you give I can show 10 similar goalies that didn't fetch a first.

Like everything else, goalies are only worth what teams are willing to pay.... Only a foolish GM would burn a first for Philipp Grubauer when there are many options out there that won't cost a first.... I mean why would a GM give up a first for Grubauer when they can sign a guy like Hutton?

A GM would have to love Grubauer and believe he's the franchise answers to the future to give up a first..
Apr. 5, 2018 at 4:57 p.m.
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Quoting: HawksFan28
Nothing, what?

There is little evidence to support goalies fetch first round picks..... For every example you give I can show 10 similar goalies that didn't fetch a first.

Like everything else, goalies are only worth what teams are willing to pay.... Only a foolish GM would burn a first for Philipp Grubauer when there are many options out there that won't cost a first.... I mean why would a GM give up a first for Grubauer when they can sign a guy like Hutton?

A GM would have to love Grubauer and believe he's the franchise answers to the future to give up a first..


Hutton is 6 years older than Grubauer. If a team is looking for a long-term goaltending solution, Hutton isn't the guy. In fact, Grubauer is likely the only guy that can fit that bill to become potentially available this offseason (assuming Raanta resigns in AZ). And we literally just gave you recent examples of goalies being traded for a first round pick, some even more. What exactly means that there is little evidence?
Apr. 5, 2018 at 5:21 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
Hutton is 6 years older than Grubauer. If a team is looking for a long-term goaltending solution, Hutton isn't the guy. In fact, Grubauer is likely the only guy that can fit that bill to become potentially available this offseason (assuming Raanta resigns in AZ). And we literally just gave you recent examples of goalies being traded for a first round pick, some even more. What exactly means that there is little evidence?


And what teams are looking for long-term goalie solutions? the only team I can think of right now are the Islanders, maybe Phoenix would have interest.

My point is supply and demand dictates what a GM will think is a fair price (what he will offer) for a player, and goalies are a dime a dozen.. Grubauer doesn't scream franchise goalie, and the separation between franchise goalie and adequate starting goalie isn't much at all - the parody among goalies is pretty narrow.

Like I said, if a GM gives up a first for Grubauer it means that GM really really really wanted him and that GM believes he's their franchise goalie..

You have to remember there are a ton of goalies out there and only 62 NHL slots, most of which are full already so there may be perhaps a dozen open slots and 100+ goalies good enough to backup, have potential to backup, start or have potential to start...... It's a situation where you can take your pick. There are lots of guys floating around that have potential and Grubauer is just one of them, so why would a GM give up a first round pick when there others a GM could either sign as a UFA or acquire for a mid-round pick? so if you're going to give up a first round pick for a goalie he has to be "the guy"...
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