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Philipp Grubauer's potential/trade value?

Apr. 5, 2018 at 7:24 p.m.
#51
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Quoting: HawksFan28
And what teams are looking for long-term goalie solutions? the only team I can think of right now are the Islanders, maybe Phoenix would have interest.

My point is supply and demand dictates what a GM will think is a fair price (what he will offer) for a player, and goalies are a dime a dozen.. Grubauer doesn't scream franchise goalie, and the separation between franchise goalie and adequate starting goalie isn't much at all - the parody among goalies is pretty narrow.

Like I said, if a GM gives up a first for Grubauer it means that GM really really really wanted him and that GM believes he's their franchise goalie..

You have to remember there are a ton of goalies out there and only 62 NHL slots, most of which are full already so there may be perhaps a dozen open slots and 100+ goalies good enough to backup, have potential to backup, start or have potential to start...... It's a situation where you can take your pick. There are lots of guys floating around that have potential and Grubauer is just one of them, so why would a GM give up a first round pick when there others a GM could either sign as a UFA or acquire for a mid-round pick? so if you're going to give up a first round pick for a goalie he has to be "the guy"...


You're just stating the obvious. Nobody is going to trade for Grubauer and not intend on him being the starter. The Islanders, Blues, Hurricanes, Avalanche, Senators and potentially the Oilers are all looking for long term goalie options. I'm sure each of these teams would all have some level of interest in Grubauer. If Ottawa wanted to trend up next season, you don't think they'd trade the Pittsburgh 1st for Gruby? You don't think the Blues would consider sending the Winnipeg first for him?
Apr. 5, 2018 at 8:05 p.m.
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Quoting: HawksFan28
Nothing, what?

There is little evidence to support goalies fetch first round picks..... For every example you give I can show 10 similar goalies that didn't fetch a first.


A GM would have to love Grubauer and believe he's the franchise answers to the future to give up a first..


I agree with your last line, . Two exceptions Corey Schneider who was a quasi backup/starter got a first rounder for the canucks. wasn't it the eighth overall pick? Andersen of Leafs a 31st and 62st pick was really a starter with the ducks.
Apr. 6, 2018 at 10:22 a.m.
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Quoting: HawksFan28
Nothing, what?

There is little evidence to support goalies fetch first round picks..... For every example you give I can show 10 similar goalies that didn't fetch a first.

Like everything else, goalies are only worth what teams are willing to pay.... Only a foolish GM would burn a first for Philipp Grubauer when there are many options out there that won't cost a first.... I mean why would a GM give up a first for Grubauer when they can sign a guy like Hutton?

A GM would have to love Grubauer and believe he's the franchise answers to the future to give up a first..


You have to look at comparable situations. You can't just look at guys like Darling and Bishop and compare them to Grubauer's situation. Both of those guys were UFA's, so giving up 1st simply for negotiating rights would have been a very high-risk gamble. Grubauer's RFA status is the key here. Whoever he gets traded to will hold his exclusive rights, and that is much more valuable than simply 2 weeks of negotiating rights. Because of this, he can also be signed to a much lower salary, as he cannot simply go to the open market and fetch the highest bidder. Couple that with the fact that he's only 26 and can be a long-term solution, and that adds even more value.

The examples I provided that did fetch 1st round picks were all closer to the Grubauer situation than that of a Scott Darling or a Ben Bishop situation.
Apr. 6, 2018 at 7:34 p.m.
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HawksFan28
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
You have to look at comparable situations. You can't just look at guys like Darling and Bishop and compare them to Grubauer's situation. Both of those guys were UFA's, so giving up 1st simply for negotiating rights would have been a very high-risk gamble. Grubauer's RFA status is the key here. Whoever he gets traded to will hold his exclusive rights, and that is much more valuable than simply 2 weeks of negotiating rights. Because of this, he can also be signed to a much lower salary, as he cannot simply go to the open market and fetch the highest bidder. Couple that with the fact that he's only 26 and can be a long-term solution, and that adds even more value.

The examples I provided that did fetch 1st round picks were all closer to the Grubauer situation than that of a Scott Darling or a Ben Bishop situation.


Oh, I'm aware of the situations...

The only goalie I would give up a first round pick for is Connor Hart...

Maybe some GM will give Washington a first for Grubauer, but I wouldn't... There is just too little competition among GM's and too much competition among goalies... If a GM needs a goalie he can find an adequate one without having to give up a first round pick, so I don't understand why a GM would offer one up. Sure, maybe a late first round pick in a bad draft. You also have to remember draft quality plays a role, so a first round pick is objective.
 
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