Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 349
Likes: 246
This is a tough deal to evaluate.
In a vacuum, no sensible argument suggests that Mrazek has been good enough to earn this salary from a contender. However, I get entirely that teams looking for lottery picks for a few years will pay a premium for good veterans to help establish some stability during the transition. The term is fine for Chicago's plans, and Mrazek seems to have found a groove and is playing respectable hockey.
I have seen some comments that overpaying now will be hard to reign in later, but I think that is overblown. I am not saying KD won't overpay later, but it isn't about what he is doing now, it's about how he values players now. If he fully understands he's overpaying stabilizing veterans to attract them to a team that is going to lose a lot, then shifting those values as the team improves won't be difficult. The reality is he's likely signing a lot of 1-2 years deals for too much AAV in the transition, and those deals are so far removed from the important long term contacts he needs to sign letter, they won't really have any impact.
However, if KD thinks he has a steal in Mrazek in terms of value (I don't think this is true), then he simply doesn't value players well, and it will be an ongoing issue, but not because of this contract establishing a precedent, it will simply be that KD overpays in general. Either way, I think the risk of "establishing a precedent or culture of overpaying players" is overblown.