But even if it does occur, there is very little to suggest 10th overall pick would be involved.
1. There is no "extended Ullmark" option before draft. The earliest he can sign extension is July 1, 2024, three days after the draft. Before July 1, 2024: Sweeney may speak with him about contracts, but may not extend him. Other teams may not speak with Ullmark. (The draft is on June 28-29, 2024). Between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, Sweeney may extend Ullmark, Sweeney may grant permission to other teams to talk to Ullmark, but other teams cannot extend Ullmark. After July 1, 2025: Ullmark becomes free agent and other teams may sign him.
2. There is no "sign and trade" scenario. First, see #1 why it cannot happen before draft. Second, the minute he signs an extension, he is likely to get NMC, which would give him much more control of where he will play. The only window for sign-and-trade would be after 2024-25 season, before free agency.
3. We know that, at deadline, Fitzy asked about Swayman (was told no obviously). But it may indicate Fitzy didn’t like Ullmark, or Ullmark didn’t like Devils.
4. Ullmark blocked a trade to New Jersey in March. (link: https://ottawacitizen.com/ottawa-senators/senators-will-likely-take-another-run-at-ullmark). Players submit lists of of teams for Modified No Trade Clauses in July. Whatever teams were on his list in March will still be on his list in June. So even if Ullmark were to change his list, it would not be done before draft.
5. Fitzgerald’s comments indicate he wants goalie with term. He has said in recent days he wants played for "tomorrow and wherever the controllable future"
6. Fitzgerald's comments also indicate he is aiming for younger goalie: "I’m more than willing to move the pick for the right asset. One that we control, one that’s probably in the same demographic as our team — maybe not 23, 24 years old but somebody we control for a few years.“
7. Until Swayman is actually extended, I don’t believe Ullmark goes in the block. If contract negotiations run longer (ie, goes into Arb period in July) there is a chance an Ullmark trade never happens just based on timing.
8. We seen a lot of chatter about NJD and other goalies (Markstrom, Saros, etc) but very little about Ullmark and NJD. It’s mostly fan speculation.
9. The number of goalies that have been traded alone for top-20 picks in NHL could be counted on your thumbs. Neither were rentals.
-- 1971 (#10): Pete McDuffe
-- 2013 (#9): Cory Schnieder
There are others that have been in packages, but still but many
-- 1973 (#10): Bernie Parent, 2nd
-- 1982 (#9): Don Edwards, Richie Dunn
-- 1984 (#8): Rick Walmsley, two 2nds, 3rd
-- 1987 (#15): Dale Hunter, Clint Malarchuk
-- 1993 (#14): Ron Hextall, 1st (#23) (with Mark Fitzpatrick)
-- 1999 (#4): Dan Cloutier, Niklas Sundstrom, 2000 1st, 2000 3rd
-- 2000 (#4): Kevin Weekes, Kristian Kudroc, 2nd (with 4th, 7th)
-- 2002 (#20): Ron Tugnutt, 2nd
-- 2007 (#13): Vesa Toskala, Mark Bell (with 2nd, 4th)
-- 2017 (#7): Antti Raanta, Derek Stepan (with DeAngelo)