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pocke
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 27 at 10:06 a.m.
Thread:
Kent
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>Why would Columbus trade a recent 5OA pick for a late first and two guys who are utterly redundant on their current roster? Would you trade Reinbacher for Adam Boqvist, 28OA, and another small winger?</div></div>
Asking for a friend
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread:
What is Voronkovs Cost
No that doesn't do it, his value is extremely high.
He's 23 and plays the sort of Nichushkin playoff game. Nearly impossible to move, wins a crazy amount of battles, can single handedly pull a puck off the wall to the middle of the ice. He's got excellent vision and playmaking, just needs time to adjust to the league.
He's currently 19th in the league at 5v5 points/60 all the while barely speaking English.
It's too early to trade him for anything but a fantastic player.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 16 at 11:27 a.m.
Thread:
Lottery Up To 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>Idk what POINT you’re actually trying to make?
We aren’t trading Power
And if your point is that Jiricek = Power, that just isn’t true:
1- Power isn’t unhappy, Jiricek is & that diminishes his value
2- Power is MUCH more established in the NHL
There’s just ZERO CHANCE of a swap happening,
no matter what your charts say 🤣🤣🤣</div></div>
Not saying Jiricek = Power but that you can't outright reject the swap. I think there would probably be additional pieces moved around. The point is, if you want a 20yo pillar player from a rebuilding team, you're going to have to give up a pillar player.
His value is not diminished because he's rightfully unhappy about being in the AHL when he's a clear NHL player.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 16 at 11:25 a.m.
Thread:
Lottery Up To 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>You cannot possibly be this dumb, but I guess your username does imply that numbers and charts scare you. SkyRaider claimed that Jiricek wasn’t worth anything and pocke very clearly demonstrated that that was incorrect because the numbers show he is comparable to Power despite Power being a lofty first overall and Jiricek being clearly much less than that (even though weirdly your whole fanbase on this website is desperate to acquire him). Power is just older and came into a team with no one ahead of him at his position since he and Dahlin can both play both sides.</div></div>
o7
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 15 at 6:33 p.m.
Thread:
Lottery Up To 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Skyraider112</b></div><div>Makes no sense to trade for and sign Hanifin, trade for Jiricek and Borgen and also draft Levshunov. You'd have too many top 4 D men and not enough ice-time nor cap to pay them. We don't need or want Hanifin and Jiricek won't be moved. Borgen would be a great add but would cost more than Krebs and a 3rd imo
That's ridiculous. Man hasn't done anything in the NHL he's not worth that much lol. But agree Columbus shouldn't move him</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>Agree with Absolutely ALL of this
Great post</div></div>
It's just the caliber of prospect he is. He was drafted 6OA, had an absolutely outstanding D+1 and has had flashes of an insane ceiling in the NHL in his D+2.
His defensive numbers on CBJ are good and his scoring output is similar to Power's with 0.92 points/60 against Power's 1.01 Points/60.
Here are some hand-tracked metrics that are important for defensemen. First, both are already excellent puck movers.
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/Fw591l7.png" alt="Fw591l7.png">
Second, Jiricek is a fantastic neutral zone defenseman whereas Power is more absorb focused.
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/c7hjEOo.png" alt="c7hjEOo.png">
In terms of HockeyViz's predictive analytics, they both grade out quite similarly.
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/ZZo3o4M.png" alt="ZZo3o4M.png">
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/u4EQ2zw.png" alt="u4EQ2zw.png">
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 15 at 3:42 p.m.
Thread:
Lottery Up To 2
Make his mark by getting fired after one trade maybe?
Jiricek isn't getting moved. If he was, you're looking at Cozens, Power or Benson+
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 8 at 3:24 p.m.
Thread:
cbj simple summer
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JacketsComrade</b></div><div>i will fully admit that the chinakhov, johnson, bean, and marchenko deals are heavily informed by the AFP analytics projections - i've looked at some comps myself but im not great at contract prediction so i was deferring a good bit. i think marchenko 5 years $5 mil AAV <em>feels</em> better to me and then you find out if he's a true #1 RW and pay up at the end of the deal or you move on at the deadline. conveniently, 5 years would mean johnny off the books when it's time to theoretically pay up.
i agree with you on chinakhov. personally, i'd love to get all of chinakhov, sillinger, and marchenko deals with 4+ term this summer but i don't feel like that matches the precedent we've seen around the league. it'd be a lot of money to give out in one summer with just a slight cap bump. chinakhov's posturing earlier this season makes me feel like he's the most likely in that bunch to only sign short term in a "bet on myself" kind of way.
yea KJ is interesting because im personally not convinced he's an NHL center but it does feel like he needs a center we don't have, although i think he and voronkov have shown some things that might work out long term.</div></div>
Yeah I assumed as much with the AFP projections! It's going to be an interesting offseason. I think punting 2 years, even though that's what their most common projections were, on so many of these is potentially fraught with risk. It sets up some of these players to be moved as the core comes up. It <em>might</em> be better to move some of them earlier for a veteran who can help insulate the remaining players skills instead of them all experiencing growing pains. At the same time, though, we've had so much coaching/system turmoil that it's hard to identify a "core" that we are willing to bet on.
Worth mentioning that Gaudreau's full NMC changes to a 10-team NTC in 26-27, so perhaps it may be worth risking 2 year deals for some of the prospects were are iffy about.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 8 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread:
cbj simple summer
I like Provorov to the Leafs. That's definitely one of the teams I have circled for his destination. Tampa, potentially, after the injury. I could also see Boston or Vegas if he was fully retainted. It's hard to say which teams may not want his negative PR, though, which makes it hard to feel confident.
I get the long term projection for Marchenko, but I'm not sure I'd sign him to it. Love the player, definitely willing to go long term, but above 6 million seems steep and I wonder if that's his salary ceiling (kind of like Buchnevich). He doesn't have play driving ability in transition, though he's good at recovering pucks and extending possession. He is obviously a talented finisher. In which case, going shorter might be better and then giving him this contract in a couple of years.
The KJ contract seems like a no-brainer 10.2c 2 year deal. Following Sam Reinhart.
I'd be more nervous about Chinakhov. He really has the capacity to pop-off in the next two years. It feels risky either way.
I don't mind keeping Bean but I don't mind moving on either. It would really be nice to get someone who could help insulate and guide Jiricek but the team tried that and failed with their poor Provorov decision. I think Bean-Jiricek can be a really dynamic and good pair but we'll need a better D coach and perhaps system (and perhaps Centers) before it can really click.
Really, I'd just like a center that KJ can play with if it's not Fantilli (or wingers that let him play C).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 5 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread:
Fine Lets Trade Kakko
You're not going to be able to convince the Jackets to part with Voronkov, let alone with Jenner, unless it's an absolutely massive offer. K'andre Miller would probably be the only asset worth considering from the Blue Jackets' perspective.
Voronkov could very well be a unicorn and they've done a lot of work to integrate him with their other young players.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 1 at 1:02 p.m.
Thread:
lindholm baby
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>I don't think Jiricek is going anywhere, but that's exactly the kind of trade that we'd move him for. Vancouver get's a guy who's NHL-ready now with 1RD upside, CBJ get a guy who's NHL-ready next year with 1RD upside and a slightly better pick for taking a little higher risk. Though I'd like to see both picks in 2025 instead.
Thanks for not suggesting, like, Hoglander and a 1st for him.</div></div>
Willander is not close in value to Jiricek and I don't know that anyone sees him as a potential 1D. He's smooth skating and could be a decent rush defender but in that sense he's just a budget Mateychuk.
Vancouver would have to add tremendous to this deal and I can't see much in their pool that would make it worthwhile.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30 at 5:38 p.m.
Thread:
Jiricek
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>You would be lucky to get the return Philly got with Gauthier IMO, not a top 5 plus a top prospect. That’s laughable.</div></div>
Jiricek is a better prospect than Cutter Gauthier
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30 at 11:00 a.m.
Thread:
This team needs a new GM and direction
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div><em>What did Adam Boqvist do to you?</em>
In all seriousness, I think Boqvist fits as the 3RD/7th D long-term. He's not physical, but he's okay at stick checking and versatile enough that he'd make a great depth guy, especially if someone like Z goes down. Elvis is a fine placeholder until Greaves is fully ready to go. Hopefully someone takes him for a late-rounder this offseason.
Laine still has some value, this year has been rough. I think he could still be the 1RW, but he's not going to be an all-around elite player or perpetual all-star. Trade him or keep him, makes no difference to me at this point, so long as a trade returns at least a 2nd/okay prospect without retaining salary.
Provorov was one of the stupidest trades I've ever seen this team make, and definitely one of my least-favorite. Peeke is quickly turning into one of my least favorite <em>players </em>all-time.
Hot(ish) take: I think it's time for Jenner to go, too. His value will never be higher, and his leadership has never been more stale. Start the culture change with him, too. Let the centers run Fantilli, Sillinger, Voronkov, and Kuraly for the rest of this year, hoping they stick. Give the team that consistency at least.</div></div>
Not a hot take to trade Jenner at all. It's by far the highest his value has ever been and ever will be. The cap goes up after this year so his efficient deal will become that much less important.
In my opinion, it's Zach Werenski's team and has been anyway.
The solution for this team isn't to just keep getting younger but we can't keep only having "leaders" who play physical styles that aren't at all like the players they are trying to teach. Namely, Jenner, Gudbranson, Kuraly.
Jarmo not clearing the D jam, and signing Severson (though in a vacuum he's a good skillset to add to the D corps), was ridiculous. Peeke wasn't going to add dramatic value by playing. At best you could have upgraded a 4th to a 3rd. Boqvist was only going to add value if he was playing big minutes. He's still a young kid with a PP1 pathway. You also had Nick Blankenburg to fill in as well. This is without the Jiricek shenanigans.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 15 at 1:17 p.m.
Thread:
Blockbuster
Considering their need for top talent, surplus of RD and scoring wingers, I don't think the Blue Jackets take that offer for David Jiricek alone.
Unless they have lost complete faith in his ability to improve his skating, David Jiricek is literally untouchable. He's going to be a pillar of the team along with Fantilli.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 12 at 12:18 p.m.
Thread:
If Norris is available what would it take
Norris should definitely be a watch-listed player for CBJ. There are some flags in his game that are interesting, and also some that are concerning, but they would have to do their due diligence. I've been trying to catch some games to see if I can square his deficiencies. CBJ definitely could use some C talent and he could fit. I'm not sure he's currently performing up to his contract but that's a reason that CBJ might be able to buy low.
He's a Michigan kid, though he doesn't have any crossover with CBJ rosters players. Still, leaves room for building an offseason nucleus of Michigan players.
Worth looking at at the least.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 9 at 9:18 p.m.
Thread:
Young player target tier list
Kent Johnson is certainly not stuck behind Cole Sillinger and would certainly not be available and certainly not for a top 10 protected pick. He's been pretty much the best forward since December.
CBJ need exactly what he brings and they aren't going to sell a 21 year old for a discount.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 4 at 12:26 p.m.
Thread:
if they fall out of the playoff race
CBJ are definitely interested in Cirelli but Kent Johnson is well off the table.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 4 at 11:28 a.m.
Thread:
Adds
Would Nic Roy really be available for that price?
Have to think Vegas likes his cap certainty but I'd be all over this if I were CBJ.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 4 at 11:26 a.m.
Thread:
Campbell Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>More than 3x1st for an injured 4h liner on a bad team....wooow</div></div>
Get your facts straight before being condescending
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 29, 2023 at 6:58 p.m.
Thread:
1 Deadline Move
Cal Ritche would definitely be on the prospect target list for a Jenner trade. Value isn't bad but it's hard to gauge at the moment. We really have no idea how much the FO is valuing Jenner who may be one of the only assets that could return significant value.
I'd also be interested in getting Girard and we have a similar type defenseman who could use a better system in Jake Bean. Could be a worthwhile bet for Colorado and give them capspace to go elsewhere.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 26, 2023 at 12:47 p.m.
Thread:
Boxing Day Shopping
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>If CBJ make that trade, I'd be mad. Dumais projects to be an offensively-gifted top-6 winger for a long time, moving him for an older defensive winger and a late-first (wouldn't mind if it was 32nd overall, personally) would be a bad idea. Does Vancouver really have an appetite to change anything around right now, aside from Kuzmenko?</div></div>
It's a little early to say that Dumais projects as a gifted top 6 winger. His playstyle isn't directly translatable to the NHL without physical gifts. His best NHLe comps are Point and Kyrou who are both elite skaters and played in more projectable leagues. The QMJHL in general struggles to translate to the NHL because there's just limited quality forechecking.
You have to love Dumais' IQ and skill but Garland is a pretty optimistic projection for someone like him. There are plenty of players that dominate juniors, like Dumais, that struggle to become anything at the NHL level. Nic Petan is the easiest cautionary tale.
In order for Dumais to hit in the NHL level, he'll need to find a role in an NHL forecheck scheme or flash instant chemistry with an all-situations C and forecheck dominant W. CBJ have plenty of wings (Brindley in the prospect pool and already a more projectable style) ahead of him on the depth chart so it's unlikely he gets favorable deployment under an NHL head coach. For that reason, he'll need some time in the AHL to cook.
CBJ would certainly accept this on value. A 1st and an NHL player, Garland has excellent 5v5 numbers, for Dumais is pretty crazy. Whether this move fits within the cap and roster scheme CBJ are going for is another question. It would require quite a few moves for CBJ to be willing to add the cap and find a roster spot for Garland for 3 years and I think CBJ would rather spend for a C. That being said, a 1st is a great asset with which to get a quality C.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 19, 2023 at 9:56 a.m.
Thread:
Bolstering the forward group
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GreatWhiteNorth</b></div><div>I wouldn’t say he’s a unicorn at all, he’s a third line centre that plays physical. Those aren’t THAT rare.
I do agree that this offer isn’t enough, solely based on the fact that Krebs doesn’t have much value and needs a change of scenery. But I also don’t think Jenner would have an extremely high return either</div></div>
I think unicorn might be overstating Jenner's skillset a bit. He is a little more than a 3C who plays physical, though imo he's more of a faceoff winning top-six wing. He goes to the net and is extremely proficient at old-school net front play. If you have a lot of rush players who want to play around in the zone and need space, Jenner is a perfect complement. If you have a line with two skilled players who create a lot of rebounds, Jenner will help them cash-in on their offense.
His scoring rate is well above his cap-hit and for that reason I believe he would fetch a rather large return.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>He’s a Bo Horvat type player on a contract that costs half for this season and the next two. These are the types of players GMs drool over at the deadline. The return would be huge especially if the jackets half retain</div></div>
Boone Jenner isn't really close to Bo Horvat. He doesn't really contribute to the game outside of faceoff wins and net-front play. Those are incredibly valuable skillsets, don't get me wrong, but Bo Horvat can drive 60pt offense without help, as he did often in Vancouver, and is even better with good players. Boone Jenner needs a Jake Voracek or Johnny Gaudreau to get to 60 pts.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 28, 2023 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread:
Clearing excess
Peeke+Roslovic>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Garland.
Garland couldn't be moved for free, so Van bought out OEL. There's no situation where CBJ should be helping Vancouver's cap situation, and losing talented but flawed players in Peeke and Roslovic, while not hand-over-fist winning the trade. Additionally, there's no way you intentionally give up cap flexibility for, at best, a middle 6 winger. This would make it more difficult for us to look at a high end center, (Lindholm, Backlund, Necas and more could be available next offseason if you have the cap-space) and sign KJ and Marchenko to good deals.
I like Garland the player. He draws penalties and does a generally good job of driving positive possession results.
Jack Roslovic is maligned and had a down year, but there isn't a player on CBJ who carried the transition responsibilities as well as him. He generated zone-entries even with Gaudreau but did much more hard work to get it out of the zone. He doesn't have great hockey sense and that makes him waste a lot of the offense he creates. In a more structured offensive zone environment, Roslovic will improve. Still, his ability to take the top end of the defense off and create space for Laine cannot be underestimated.
Furthermore, I'd argue Garland is a worse fit with Babcock than Roslovic, despite his improved compete. Babcock has stated he wants a lefty and righty faceoff person on as many lines as possible so that they can take strong-side faceoffs. CBJ only currently has Roslovic, Danforth and, optimistically, Laine. Garland doesn't contribute in this case and takes a roster spot away from players that could, while getting paid $4 million for 3 years. That fact, combined with the depressed winger market, makes this not a deal worth pursuing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2023 at 11:46 a.m.
Thread:
Kuznetsov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>It does prove my point because there is a HUGE difference between what you originally posted and this chart. Like I said it isn't a worl beater but there's a huge difference.</div></div>
you're out to lunch, mate
you're trying to cherry-pick data and make claims that even the cherry-picks don't support
Kuznetsov is, even in your generous context, not grading out as a 1C. He generates very poor volume of offense, gets some dangerous offense and is poor defensively. If his 2019-2022 results still aren't stellar, and you're acquiring him to play in 23-24 and 24-25, it's more valid to go off of his 2020-2023 dataset. Additionally, you're comparing Roslovic's age 22-24 seasons with Kuznetsov's age 27-30 seasons and concluding that the now 31 year old player coming off a down year is likely to improve and the 26 year old is not. This is backwards from all aging data we've ever seen from athletes.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 14, 2023 at 7:58 p.m.
Thread:
Kuznetsov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>And I'm saying look at 2019-2022 because last year was so bad for everyone on the Caps with injuries and Laviolette. Roslovic at best is a really good 3C, Kuz at his best is a 1C.</div></div>
Your claim isn't really supported.
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/Fia9AYq.png" alt="Fia9AYq.png">
Kuznetsov is better offensively from 2019-2022 but it's not like he's good.
It's also pretty disingenuous to not include the past three years (and specifically ones that were more generous to Kuznetsov) because Roslovic was buried on the wing in Winnipeg at age 22. Kuznetsov is on the other side of the aging curve and if you're acquiring him now you can't really expect him to be better than what he's shown in his last 3 years combined.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 14, 2023 at 1:46 p.m.
Thread:
Kuznetsov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>Charts a bit misleading because last year was just a bad year for everyone really with all the injuries and Laviolette wearing out his welcome. His 3 years combined before that were good, not elite by any means but they were a lot better than looking at just his last season.</div></div>
The chart includes the last 3 years combined. 2020-2023.
It was also a very bad year for Roslovic.
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