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Regression_Analysis

Member Since

Jun. 19, 2024

Forum Posts

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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS

Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 8:10 p.m.

Thread: Leon

I think this is basically what Dubas is planning, but it'll be 1-2 more years.
Short term deals to stay flexible until some young guys like Yager/Koivunen are ready, then he'll go all in on a big UFA for one last run

Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:07 p.m.

Thread: LW1 Trade

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Friendly_Cannon</b></div><div>Graves may have one of the worst deals in the nhl based on last years performance and term.
Absolutely not touching him for laine or any player</div></div>

Im curious what specifically about Graves game you dont like? My model says hes overpaid by ~1m, but nothing way out of the ordinary for a player on a down yea.
None of his advanced metrics stand out as being disastrous, what am I missing?

Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 12:52 p.m.

Thread: Brother what

Id bet Eller is moved now. Hayes can hopefully be a decent enough 3C replacement and theyll have banked a 2nd + w/e they can get for Eller. Would make them slightly younger too.

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 27 at 1:34 p.m.

Thread: If Stevey Y was smart

Would def be smart for Yzerman
Dont think the Pens accept that though. Makes them worse this year and leaves them without a starter if Blomqvist regresses

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 27 at 1:09 p.m.

Thread: Wings

every1 of these trades is a downgrade for the Pens
cart b4 the horse, creating this year problems to fix future maybe problems

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 26 at 3:09 p.m.

Thread: col_capspace

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>COL won't trade their 3C for Smith.
They won't find anything better on the market.

Not really sure how I feel about Monahan.
Part of me thinks that's a trap contract.
But at the same time, I don't think he's going to want to come to PIT anyway so what difference does it make.</div></div>

I agree, not sold on another 30yo. But I like the having C insurance with Monahan if Crosby or Malkin miss time

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 24 at 4:32 p.m.

Thread: penguins low-top-k

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>didn't Kovalenko just come over?
they aren't going to trade him.</div></div>

no idea i just threw this list (https://www.thefourthperiod.com/summer-trade-watch-2024) into a crude forest classifier and was curious what would come out LOL
Although the COL trade was Smith for a 2024 3rd. But it assumes all teams have all their picks and every1 makes 1.000.000 so i tweaked it a bit manually haha

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 24 at 3:18 p.m.

Thread: Someone got a good NHL insider on Twitter that drops info constantly

I like these lists:
Random NHL Media: https://x.com/i/lists/1353009250562428931
Athletic NHL writers: https://x.com/i/lists/963088210032078849

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19 at 6:40 p.m.

Thread: Calgary fun

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Huh? Mangiapane is worth more than Smith</div></div>

I would love to hear your logic for that? They had nearly identical seasons
AM - 75GP 14G 26A 40PTS
RS - 76GP 13G 27A 40PTS
Mangiapane makes more money and has an extra year. Why would a team willing take the add for identical production?

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19 at 6:26 p.m.

Thread: 24-25

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Yes they had to move him because he had 1 year left on his deal, that is how rentals work. Pettersson is also a rental

Rasmus Ristolainen was not a rental.</div></div>

Fake News. Risolainen was 26 and traded the summer of his final year of a six-year, $32.4 million contract. There was no extension in place. Trade was July 23, 2021 and signed to extension March 10, 2022. This is the exact same situation Petterson would be in, in the mock above. 1st+2nd+Prospect is the price for a Top pair Dman

Keep dodging the question though. You have no comps because they dont exists. Ur Hextall level clueless

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19 at 4:48 p.m.

Thread: 24-25

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Ekholm had 5 years left not at all a rental comp.

And Hanifin is a tier above. Also he was also traded in division so…</div></div>

CGY had gun to their head after Hanifin wasnt going to resign and still got a 1st + 2nd.
Im curious who your model has as comps? Even RFA Rasmus Ristolainen as a <90% match, was a 14, 39, & 41

If you can think of a top pairing dmen in the last 5 years that has moved for less than a 1st+2nd, I would love to hear it cuz my model is missing it.

Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19 at 4:10 p.m.

Thread: 24-25

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Just want to clarify you think an unretained rental dman gets:

1st, 2nd, 3rd, top prospect?</div></div>

Top pair defensemen don't move often so its a larger margin of error but my trade comps are Matias Ekholm and Noah Hanifin.
MP28 prob somewhere in between those... aka ~25 OA + A tier prospect or 2nd. With intra-division tax NJD would be looking at 1st + Prospect + 3rd

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