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LikeABoss

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Forum: Armchair-GM13 hours ago
Thread: Bury him
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Players will value teams that look out for their best wishes, even if it slightly hinders the teams situation. Respect for a long way I think. I feel there will be a good conversation had with Justin and ultimately he will determine his future. If he would prefer a AHL placement then sure. Most players are fierce competitors and want every opportunity to win and play in the show. He would likely prefer a buyout so he can sign with another team and keep playing.</div></div>

My breakdown of the options from an income perspective:

1. stay or get traded his earnings would be $6.8M over the next 2 years
2. go to the minors his earnings would be $6.8M over the next 2 years
3(*). get bought out his earnings will be ~$2.3M + X over the next 2 seasons, and an additional ~$2.3M over the following 2 years.
4. contract termination

*If "+ X" is greater than ~$2.26M over the next 2 seasons, option 3 would be more lucrative than 1 and 2.

Competitiveness also plays a factor, an even larger factor than money for some players. Here's my breakdown of those options:

1. get traded/signed to a Stanley Cup contender for a regular lineup spot
2. get traded/signed to a playoff contender for a regular lineup spot
3. stay in Detroit for a regular lineup spot
4. get traded/signed to a bottom feeder for a regular lineup spot

Both trade and buyout carry inherent risk of being demoted by the new team, granted, he might prefer Cleveland, Rockford, or San Diego over Grand Rapids. I think options 1 and 2 would be just as likely if not more likely to demote him. So his best target would be a bottom feeder if he leaves Detroit looking for ice time.

I'm not going to guess what Holl actually wants to do, because there are many more factors beyond income and playing time… All I know for certain is Holl will definitely make it a top priority to determine how many players have been demoted/bought out from every GM and organization, per <a href="/users/SharkTank" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@SharkTank</a>

You’re probably right that Stevie will put a lot of weight on what Holl prefers. If you look at the options objectively, buyout has quite a bit of risk for Justin Holl, and I don’t think his agent would prefer/recommend that path.

I honestly think the Wings still see him as an asset. He stayed a healthy scratch because they wanted to put him in the lineup if there were injuries. I think they want to give him more playing time, but it ultimately depends on how he measures up against the rest of the blue line. Lalonde said he trusts Holl when he’s in the lineup.

My guess is Yzerman will certainly try to trade him, but he won’t offer a sweetener. If they can’t trade him I think they keep him. However, if he doesn’t make the opening night roster, I think he gets sent down GR at the beginning of the season.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 9:13 p.m.
Thread: Bury him
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>Yzerman won't do that to Holl.

He's not going to prevent him from an opportunity to be signed by another team.

Good luck getting future UFA's to sign with you by treating a recent UFA like that.

Yzerman is going to try and trade Holl but we all know he won't surrender the sweetener it would take to dump him.

Buyouts suck but it's what Yzerman will do here.</div></div>

Agree to disagree, I think if he finds a team who wants him with a sweetener, you might be right that he gets bought out as that would be the best opportunity for him. If no team wants him for their roster then the AHL would be the better opportunity.

Regardless, I think both buyouts and demotions probably have a similar effect on UFAs decision making. I'd assume neither factor in very much if at all. Maybe it's something an agent mentions to their client, but you're stretching if you think a player cares enough to know how many players have recently been bought out by a team...
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 9:10 a.m.
Thread: IN THE YEAR 2000
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoachCoach</b></div><div>Biggest need in my opinion is BPA wherever they draft (15 or try and move up), with a focus on wing.

Center: Larkin-Danielson-Kasper-Veleno-Lombardi
LHD: Edvinsson-Wallinder-Walman-Johansson-Buium
RHD: Seider-ASP-Gibson-Ant-Tuomisto
Wing: Berggren-Mazur-Soda-???

Not a bad place to be considering wingers can be found easier than most of the other positions (I.e Debrincat trade, Kane FA)</div></div>

Buchelnikov is an interesting winger. Ras and Compher will be here for another 4 seasons, and Copp for another 3. I could see Copp, at age 33, sticking around in a bottom 6 role for a Michigander discount. Either way I'd expect all 3 will be in Detroit for a few more seasons.

I think that'll give some time for this year's prospects. I'd agree with focusing on forwards this draft
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2 at 2:13 p.m.
Thread: BLOMS AWAY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Then don't dump them? If you can't move them for cheap, buyout Holl. His buyout is 1.133M per year. That's way better than paying a first. Fabbri can be moved for cheap, don't see him costing much to move. He has a pretty decent season. Even if we are 1M with retention it's better than paying to dump them.</div></div>

Buyouts are boring, and the penalty for them is kind of similar to a draft pick. Like $1.33M x 4yr = 1st round ~31 OA. In other words if they had Holl's buyout penalty space, they could eat a bad contract and get picks back, or just add a player that can be most useful right now. We don't know when 15 OA will be helpful to the team.

I think there's some cracks forming in the division, and the window is open for the Wings.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2 at 1:45 p.m.
Thread: BLOMS AWAY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Doesn't really make sense for Detroit. This team isn't any better. All we did was lose picks for nothing in this. Gus didn't post much better numbers, was healthy and had a way better defense infront of him. That's not an upgrade. Soda2.0 would be cool but he doesn't hold much value. That pick is too important to the long term plan. We will get a quality player at 15OA, those other picks are just lottery tickets.

LikeABoss</div></div>

Puckpedia has the value of eating Holl's contract at 1st round pick ~27th OA. Husso = 2nd round pick ~34 OA and Fabbri = 2nd round pick ~37 OA.

They're all still usable players in their 20s, so I don't see them as complete cap dumps, but I think this is in the ballpark
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 9:24 p.m.
Thread: More ideas for a Kane contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>The contract negotiations aren't a reason why he would be traded. Verbeek basically said he wants Zegras to be a better player away from the puck. Zegras mentioned that he is working on that. Once he improves there, he will likely get a big long term extension when this contract is up.
Yzerman, like Verbeek since they are buddies, likes two way players. That's why he drafted Danielson and Kasper.
Chicago got 7th overall plus more for Debrincat. Just "two first round picks" is not the same.</div></div>

I'll certainly need to delete this post if (WHEN!) Detroit wins the draft lottery and moves up to 5th... :awesome

I think it's closer than you think though, I think the value of 15 and 32 is ~7th overall, and it just goes up from there in value, if you wrongly assume Detroit doesn't win the cup next season.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 9:10 p.m.
Thread: More ideas for a Kane contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Neither of those players from Philly we should target, our team isn't good enough to go big game hunting. Trading top prospects/ picks will shorten our window, which hasn't even been opened yet. I could maybe see a world where Risto is a target for cheap with a bit of retention but he's not that good.
I have no issue with Ferraro but Wallinder could be better than him by the end of next season. I do like how physical and defensive play though. I do believe we need to be more physical and better defensively.
Can't just LTIR a guy if he isn't hurt and he'll want to play if he can. I'm pretty sure he would be okay with a shorter term deal, he knows his situation.
This team is really frustrating as a fan. Rebuilds take so long and this one is no exception. If we start trading picks and prospects for aging players, we will never be a contender and just be doomed as a borderline playoff team.</div></div>

I just mentioned the Philly thing to say 2 firsts seems like a fair starting place for a Zegras deal. As for the Kane thing, only he can decide when to pull the plug, but I'm sure there's some "coaching" from the guys with medical PhDs. Either way he's not making his condition better by playing more games...

I'm not even suggesting fowl play, just that Kane is a smart hockey guy, and probably understands the rules that the NHL general managers have to follow. Maybe you could say he's more concerned about the letters on the back of his sweater than the logo on the front, but he's certainly a smart guy and he knows how the salary cap rules work.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 8:46 p.m.
Thread: More ideas for a Kane contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>Ughhhh. Sure I’ll go with the first 10 that come to mind and cut myself off there
1. ANA has zero reason to trade Zegras unless they land an NHL ready LHC, for which they have only an 11.5% chance
2. ANA’s one an only RHD under contract is Gudas
3. Gudas has played so well for ANA he’s a legitimate (though not super highly likely) candidate for the C this offseason. He’s loved by every fan, player, coach, etc
4. The Ducks are loaded with middle 6 and bottom 4 D prospects. Their needs are 1RD and top 6 RW prospects. Not a single asset here is likely to fill any of those holes
5. Verbeek outright said he wants to push for playoff contention next year. A Zegras and Gudas trade is a huge step back, not to mention the best piece coming in being a draft pick that won’t meaningfully help the team for like 3 years
6. You had the gall to think Gudas is going to get RETAINED(!!) $2M for 2 more years
7. Undoubtedly the deepest position on ANA is LHD (Mintyukov, Zellweger, Lacombe, Vaak, Lageson, Hinds, Dionicio). You added 2(!!!) LHD
8. It’s already been widely reported that Yzerman wasn’t interested in Zegras
9. The rumors around Zegras in general were shut down months ago, because they were baseless to begin with. The dude who threw it out there is the same one who said definitively that Gibson played his last game in ANA.. at the end of last season. His argument was basically ‘Drysdale got traded, he’s buddies with Zegras, maybe Zegras is next’. The moment someone in the media actually dug in, multiple insiders shared ‘Verbeek was never looking to move Zegras, and has not once brought his name up in a trade discussion’
10. The quantity over quality approach doesn’t work when the opposing team actually has leverage. DET has plenty of pieces ANA would actually value (ASP, Danielson). If the Ducks tried to get Seider for a ‘25 1st, ‘26 1st, and a bunch of fillers, what would you think?</div></div>

I think there are potentially more reasons to trade him that you want to consider, but that's more of a mental block than a real reason to not trade him. I'd say his contentious contract negotiations is at least 1 reason...

I get all your stuff about Gudas, I figured every player you got was younger than Gudas, and on an expiring deal except Walman who has the same term as Gudas left. They can all be flipped for probably more than Gudas with retention, but since you guys expect to make the playoffs next season I can see why that wouldn't have much value... I look forward to the Ducks getting an additional 32+ points next season!

Anything reported about Yzerman's thoughts on a player is probably a lie unless you have a direct quote to reference or video of him saying it. He's kind of known for running a very tight ship.

Again 2 first round picks seems like more than what Chicago got for DeBrincat. That's a real trade that happened. I think your hypothetical about Seider doesn't help your argument, because while I'd certainly entertain ANA's next 2 first round picks for Seider, along with whatever you want to throw in, I'd have to do a bit more digging to see who's in this year's draft and next year's. Granted the main reason is ANA's next 2 1st round picks are quite a bit more valuable than Detroit's
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 8:29 p.m.
Thread: More ideas for a Kane contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>First mistake is thinking this article has any weight. Alot of these writers don't know **** about fcuk. None of the pieces mentioned in that article would likely have any interest to Anaheim other than slight add ons. Reference the Drysdale - Gauthier trade as reference. That's what Anaheim will be looking for, high end young assets not depth players and mid picks. Berggren wouldn't hold much value to them, they have other similar players, he isn't anything special. He is skilled and has shown potential and that's why we also shouldn't trade him. Ducks also currently have 5 left handed defensemen on the roster, Walman doesn't have any value to them.
Ferraro &gt; Walman is debatable but why do it? Walman plays well with Seider and is a good and cheap stop gap for Edvinsson. Why mess with that?
If Patrick Kane wants 5 years, we should stay far away. Could be still be good then? Sure. But the risk is much higher than the reward. Will it suck to see him play elsewhere? Yes. If he doesn't want to sign a reasonable deal then let him walk, it's not worth the cap implications of the future. Chicago wouldn't be trading for him either.</div></div>

Fair, I also heard Konecny and Ristolainen might be on the table for a Zegras deal. I'm not sure what 2 1st round picks is worth, but just starting there, I think you'd be close to a fair trade with Philly.

Ferraro is a reliable shutdown D that can eat a bunch of minutes regardless of who his partner is. Walman is okay with Seider, but I think Edvinsson should be on the top pair. Ferraro would probably benefit from less minutes/wear and tear from physical play, and would be the perfect insulation to protect Sandin Pellikka. I think that would be a lot more utility with a top 4 of Edvinsson Seider, Ferraro SDP, than with Walman Seider, Edvinsson SDP.

Kane can be LTIRetired too if he starts to fall off. He has a legit issue that will likely only impede him more as he continues to play. They could also LTIR him and add some big fish at the TDL, just so Kane can be fresh for the start of the playoffs:cool I think a lower AAV longer term contract might be the better route, especially with the cap going up.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26 at 5:54 p.m.
Thread: More ideas for a Kane contract
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GeneralLandro</b></div><div>A couple things Anaheim has zero interest in: 1. Any of those players you’re sending over 2. Trading Radko Gudas 3. Mid round picks for Zegras

We pass</div></div>

I was kinda guessing, not really a huge fan of Zegras but I love Gudas. I was going off a random article I found for a ballpark:

https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/what_would_be_the_potential_trade_value_of_trevor_zegras_to_the_canadiens/s1_17203_39928766

I figured Burger + Walman &gt; Farrell + Harris, and the picks are also comparable. From the Wing's perspective I was thinking Kane might be able to rekindle Zegras' game, but personally I wouldn't want Stevie to bet the farm on Zegras.

I was more focused on the Kane part, I read something about him wanting term, which Stevie has been averse to doing. Thanks for the feedback though!