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Hockey_Soul

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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 7:15 a.m.
Thread: Actual full rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>i mean, i don't even think this is subjective at this point. First issue is that Provorov is awful. he's really bad. If you look at the bruins back end, obviously Lindholm and Lohrei are ahead of him on the left side. They're not picking up his contract to play him on the third pair.....
then factor in again that he's REALLY bad.
Now let's start to consider his bigotry. Not sure if you've ever been to massachusetts, but the intolerance around sexual orientation isn't tolerated. It would be a brutal PR move to pick him up, which I think the bruins would absolutely do (they have in the past), if he was good, and didn't have a horrible contract. but he's not, and he does. No shot the bruins would ever even take the call about acquiring him.</div></div>

My bad. I forgot Boston is only bigoted against other races, not sexual preferences.

And aside from that, he's still a decent player, not great, but quite reliable and been stuck on terrible teams the past few years.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 9:32 a.m.
Thread: Darche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>I think his ceiling is around an average two way 2C. Also his even strength P/60 he was 205 among forwards. Some notable names just ahead of him were: cirelli (188), zibenejad (195, hertl (191), slaf (203). Not bad for a 20 year old to have similar production as those guys. I wouldn’t mind moving him for the right piece that’s a pretty big overpay for tkachuck. You just left a gaping hole at RD of the future, hurt their center depth, and top 6 forward depth. Not to mention gave up 3 cost controlled players. Jackets aren’t one player away from making the playoffs. All this does is rush the rebuild and give them less cap flexibility</div></div>

Fair enough. We can have different evaluations of him. I agree they aren't one player away, but I'm not making this trade in a vacuum. Stamkos is a big part of this ACGM too, as well as swapping Laine for Larson. I like Brindley, Dumais, China and March over Johnson, and I see Voronkov as a major upgrade over Sillinger. Boone can still play C if needed, and LDBB in Cleveland so the depth is fine.

I get they are trying to rebuild, but I don't believe the rebuild will be successful without veteran leadership around your young players to guide them, and as has been demonstrated in Columbus in the past, the young guys aren't eager to stick around if the team is not winning. This team is much more balanced now with up front scoring (and much needed PP help), along with all their youth in Fantilli, China, March, Vronk, Mateychuk, Brindley, Dumais, Svozil, Ceulemans, and their incoming top-6 pick, which could be another C or RD.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 8:23 a.m.
Thread: Darche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StutzlesNumber1Fan</b></div><div>I'm just curious why Columbus would move on from Jiricek and Kent though. Kent seems like a top 6 talent and Jiricek a top pairing RD, is Brady worth that to Columbus?</div></div>

Well, they both are promising, but I would say both have concerning warts and their growth stunted a bit this year. Johnson is very slight and his effort seems to be an issue. Jiricek's skating and defensive discipline seems to be a struggle, but I think he'll figure that out and turn into a good 2-3 dman. I don't think either one are a total slam dunk future all-star. Columbus also has Severson, whose contract won't be dealt, and Boqvist, who has shown a lot of promise. I think trading Boq over Jiricek is obviously preferable, but I don't think that's enough for OTT to say yes. CBJ also have Ceulemans coming down the line and could draft another RHD in the top-6 this year.

Brady is a legitimate star and a leader. OTT is fledgling and both teams could be looking for a big change with new GMs. CBJ have lots of middle of the lineup players, and to improve I believe they need to trade some of those for a top of the lineup player. Brady seems like an ideal target because he doesn't have a NMC, is still just 24, and has four more years on his contract. He fits with the core, and CBJ only sacrifice two young players. They still have a plethora of young talent to build around, including Fantilli, the Russians, Mateychuk and a top pick in the upcoming draft.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 7:59 a.m.
Thread: Darche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>Sillinger is basically an average 3C already and took a big step this year. His skating greatly improved and his faceoffs and PKing got better. You don’t think as a 20 year old he has any room left for improvement?</div></div>

He's close to being an average 3C, but he still wasn't quite there this year. For him to be a desirable 3C IMO he still needs to be quite a bit better than what he was this year. Sure, he improved, because last year he was so damn awful it was almost impossible not to. Thats like saying Pascal was an improvement over Larson.

Yes, he's only 20, and he seems to be a hard worker like I said, so I do think he gets there, but I also think that is his ceiling: about 40 pts and a defensively responsible 3C. Those are a lot easier to acquire than elite scoring power forwards like Tkachuk. Sillinger is absolutely expendable in a bigger move, which I think they make this summer.



EDIT: 6 forwards x 32 teams = 192, 9 forwards x 32 teams + 288, so a third line forward would rank from 193-288, the median third liner would rank 240, I would call average 3rd liner being from around 230-250.

I just looked on Quant Hockey. In P/60, Sillinger was 272. That would place him firmly below average for a 3rd line center. His FO% was 46.3, which places him firmly below average, bordering on bad. His CF% and CF% rel place him squarely in the middle of the CBJ roster, which was one of the worst in the league. Again, I get that he's still 20 and has room for growth. I just believe his ceiling is a lot lower than some CBJ fans seems to think.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 1:47 p.m.
Thread: Darche
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>Tkachuk would have to come with an extension if the jackets are giving up that much. Could make sense if they draft levshunov. No chance stamkos signs with the jackets. Also dumais will need at least one year in Cleveland so they are better off not trading texier. Seems like rushing the rebuild which usually does not end well. This is how you end up in a situation like the sens or buffalo</div></div>

I mean, he's got 4 more years on his deal, I'm not sure an extension is necessary or makes sense for either side at that point. I think CBJ could hold on to him for a while and he either grows with this group and likes it here and extends after year 3, or if he doesn't want to stay at that point CBJ can sell him and still get phenomenal value for a 27/28-year-old elite scoring power forward which is always in high demand.

As much as I love Jiricek, I don't believe in Sillinger to be anything more than an average 3C, and Johnson still has huge question marks around his ability to compete at the NHL level, so while it's a risk, I'd take the known quantity in Tkachuk that gives you so much on and off the ice, and is young enough to still fit in and grow with this core.

Bigger question for me is: Is that too much for Stamkos?
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 10:11 a.m.
Thread: ERIC TULSKY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>Seconding this, I'd so prefer to have a younger forward-thinking GM who has spent the last few years in a top NHL organization over someone like Hunter, who would be yet another re-hash old-head former GM and true boys club member. The fact that we could have Mark as GM and Dale as coach is terrifying...where would the accountability lie if things go wrong? That just seems like more of the same old s*** that we've had for basically the entire Jarmo era: old-head coaches in an increasingly modern game that mire the team in mediocrity.</div></div>

Could not agree more, those are my sentiments exactly when it comes to GM.

How do you feel about HC? Stick with Pascal for another year or axe him and let the new GM pick his guy? I'm not totally opposed to a more experienced and proven coach, but I absolutely believe the FO needs a young mind with a fresh perspective and ideas.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 10:08 a.m.
Thread: ERIC TULSKY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>Thanks for the insights on Laine. Puts him in a somewhat different perspective. I know there were Jets fans and even Jackets fans on this site who commented on Laine's lack of effort at times and his seemingly bad relationship w/ the media. As for his fit on the Hawks, Kurashev has been a huge surprise as the RW w/ Bedard. Doubt he's moving off that line. And Hawks still have Taylor Hall, who only got 10 games on LW w/ Bedsy before he got shelved w/ knee surgery. Gotta believe the plan is to put Hall back on Bedard's LW. So that would likely leave Laine playing RW on the 2nd line w/ Reichel on LW and Dickinson at C. Not sure the Hawks want to spend $8.7m on their 2nd line RW. And honestly, I can't see the Hawks trading away two 2nd's unless it's to move up in the draft order or acquire another 1st round pick.</div></div>

Well, he's definitely not personable with the media due to his emotionless Finnish disposition. And yes, at times he can get caught floating and looking for goals, but that is part of his game that his really improved over the last couple years.

As far as lineup fit, Laine has always preferred to play the left side and IMO would be a better fit on the top line since he's younger and can still rip the puck with the best of them. Hall is nowhere near the player he was when he was MVP and as he continues to age, he only becomes more of a middle-six player.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 9:35 a.m.
Thread: ERIC TULSKY
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hawksguy81</b></div><div>With his injury history and "somewhat suspect" attitude, I can't see the Hawks being interested in a Laine trade unless it's at a bargain basement price. Laine is still a talented offensive player when he's healthy, but lately that's not nearly often enough to justify that cap hit.</div></div>

Health has been the only issue, and his injuries have been fluky, nothing chronic. He's in the NHL PAP to focus on his mental health, which is very reasonable and admirable considering all the bad luck he's dealt with, and it's no sweat to take time away from a team at the bottom of the standings.

His attitude has been great, i.e. approaching coaches to volunteer to play/learn center to help the team when all centers were hurt, taking Fantilli into his home for his rookie summer, staying in Columbus to play in a 3-on-3 offseason league.

When healthy his point production has been better than it was in WPG and his defensive game has come a very long way. He was statistically the best defensive forward on the team in 2022-23. He's absolutely worth the mild risk of a couple 2nd rounders.

Also, CHI lacks dynamic forwards and need a top line guy like Laine who can play with Bedard. They also have a surplus of picks.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 4 at 2:54 p.m.
Thread: In two years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Logicalicesports</b></div><div>Yeah reports are coming out that the AK Bears are looking to resign him and he is looking to go back to Russia to keep playing. It would suck to see it happen, I guess he isn't happy in the United States</div></div>

Ak Bars wants him, that doesn't mean he's blowing his shot in the NHL to go back there and make half the money he would - or less - in America.

They were predominantly behind the rumors in November too. I think Vronk has friends there and when he says he misses the motherland, they think there is an opening to try to get him back. However, there is really no substantial evidence that he wants to go back. He has stated he loves Columbus and his teammates and is getting more comfortable in America.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 18 at 1:58 p.m.
Thread: KJ for KAndre
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JacketsComrade</b></div><div>because 6 years means you're buying year one of his UFA and that <em>always</em> raises your AAV. if you did 5 x $5 million i wouldn't have bat an eye.

he's a 6'3" 23 year old gonna put up approx 20-20-40 in year 2 after setting the team rookie goalscoring record the year prior. if you don't think he's gonna be expensive on a long deal, then buddy i got a beach house in columbus ohio to sell you.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Turbo_Duncan</b></div><div>Being 23, anything longer than a 3-year bridge will be buying RFA years, so 5 vs 6 doesn’t really matter. Also, he broke the rookie goal scoring record as a 22 year old, which was previously held by two 18 year olds, PLD and Nash, so it’s not nearly as significant as you think.

This year he’s a .5 ppg player as a 23 year old. He’s good enough to deserve some term but he’s not a top line player on a good team so he’s not getting top dollar. The deal could fluctuate in both term and AAV, Id say closer to 5x5 or 6x6, but 5x6 is not far off at all from what he’s likely to get so just settle down there partner.</div></div>

He'll be 24 this summer so anything beyond 1 year would go into RFA. This is when it is wise to negotiate a longer term deal with 4-6 years of term.

Also, Marchenko is a year older than Chinakhov, who was nearly a .5 ppg last year and is .55 ppg this year. I'm for extending both long term, but if only one of them is getting a long-term extension, it should be China.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread: Seattle and SJ swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>Sharks fans are going to (arguably rightfully) say that's not enough for Ferraro. I don't think he's the guy that makes sense for Columbus, we just need a really solid veteran 3LD and let Mateychuk pair with Severson on the 2nd pair next year.

I also don't think it makes sense to swap KJ for Wright. We've got plenty of center depth, and we have a top-end center in Fantilli in all likelihood. One of Jenner, Sillinger, or Voronkov should step in to be a good 2C, one will be a devastatingly good 3C (Jenner the goal scorer, Sillinger the defensive shutdown guy, or Voronkov the overall beast), and all 3 of those would be wasted on the 4th line. I think Wright is more of what we have: top-6 potential C's that are likely to land in the middle-6.

Johnson, on the other hand, has a good shot at being THE winger, the guy with the skill and creativity to actually drive play and score a bunch of points. The guy Gaudreau should be. Every other winger we have isn't inspiring as a 1st-liner, Marchenko Chinakhov, Laine, and Gaudreau are all great 2nd-liners and are a luxury on the 3rd line. If one of those can break out (or bounce back) and Johnson can keep developing, we should be set in the system at wing too.

The Provorov deal I'm totally fine with, I just don't think Colorado is the team to pay that this season.</div></div>

I'm as hyped as anyone about Mateychuk's future, but I think expecting him to play 2nd pair next year is a mistake. He hasn't earned an NHL spot yet. I really see Provorov staying there at least until the 2025 deadline.