COVID not Team Construction sank the Leafs

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Created by: jonh514

Team: 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: May 5, 2024

Published: May 5, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

It's fun to poke fun at Leafs fans because they can be a bit "hoity toity" about their precious core 4. On some jerk Habs fan level I'm glad they lost again. Then there's this other part of me that is admittedly jealous of the team they assembled and who just feels bad for them and the bad luck they've had to endure because of an unexpectedly stagnant cap.

I will say this as many times as it needs to be said. If it had not been for COVID, this iteration of the Leafs would have won the cup at least once in the past 4 years. Yes their core 4 are not tough enough. Yes their defense core and goaltending has not been up to playoff standards the past 4 years. But here's the truth that each and every one of you who is gleefully licking your chops this morning at the end of the Core 4 era know: If the cap had gone up as expected - this would not have been an issue. They would have beefed up the defense core because UFAs would have made them a first choice as Tavares did. They would have added team toughness the same way.

This Leafs team was not fatally flawed, they made two huge management mistakes:

1) They assumed the cap would go up
2) When it didn't go up, they refused to sacrifice an elite player to beef up all other areas on the team

That's it. The drafting was excellent. The development was exemplary. The players they bet on were Elite. Just horrible bad luck.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Xhekaj, Arber		2	$1,500,000
Barron, Justin		2	$1,500,000

Trades

MTL

Nylander, William

TOR

Mesar, Filip
Struble, Jayden
2024 1st round pick (WPG)
2024 1st round pick (MTL)

Retained Salary Transactions

Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)
Jake Allen: $1,925,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
24	$87,500,000	$83,421,250	$1,022,500	$4,670,000	$4,078,750

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 3	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 6	Nylander, William $11,500,000$11,500,000 RW NMC UFA - 8
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 7	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 2	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 1
Roy, Joshua $835,000$835,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 1	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 3	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 1
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 1	Montembeault, Samuel $3,150,000$3,150,000 G UFA - 3
Hutson, Lane $950,000$950,000 ($750,000$750K) LD RFA - 2	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 1
Xhekaj, Arber $1,500,000$1,500,000 LD/RD RFA	Barron, Justin $1,500,000$1,500,000 RD RFA
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 1	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 2

May 5 at 8:16 a.m.

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,842

Likes: 2,515

won the cup is a stretch, but they would have had better depth for sure and their odds of winning would have improved. its true no teams were hurt by the cap as much as the leafs for sure.

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 8:21 a.m.

my_name_is_Fil

Joined: Nov. 2023

Posts: 949

Likes: 317

i think they needed that bergevin bottom 6 magic and they would have better balance

willy nylly is the guy that seemeed to care the most, and that would make FANTASTIC tv..

that pick IS NOT GOING TO A RIVAL. (not the top 5 pick. lottery isnt even done)

when they went out and got big boys like oreilly and gio... i was more worried.

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 8:30 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: my_name_is_Fil

Bergevin was a fantastic dumpster diver, it's true.

May 5 at 8:32 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

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Quoting: drambui

won the cup is a stretch, but they would have had better depth for sure and their odds of winning would have improved. its true no teams were hurt by the cap as much as the leafs for sure.

I think we're saying the same thing. I understand and accept your point that we don't know if they could have beaten Tampa, Colorado, or Vegas, but they should have been a final four team.

drambui liked this.

May 5 at 8:34 a.m.

my_name_is_Fil

Joined: Nov. 2023

Posts: 949

Likes: 317

Quoting: jonh514

Bergevin was a fantastic dumpster diver, it's true.

feeling like we forget matthews was MIA and probably injured, woll not there for last game.

still somehow montreal has had MORE playoff success than the leafs in the last....5?+ years super surprising

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 8:38 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

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Quoting: my_name_is_Fil

Defense wins championships it's true. But you need to score.

May 5 at 8:44 a.m.

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 28,070

Likes: 14,672

:: insert Jerry Seinfeld that's a shame gif ::

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 9:04 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

:: insert Jerry Seinfeld that's a shame gif ::

Yeah... I get your perspective. Like I said, some part of me is happy they lost...

May 5 at 9:58 a.m.

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

If you swap Nylander with Marner, Leafs do it

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 9:59 a.m.

#10

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

If you swap Nylander with Marner, Leafs do it

The challenge is we can ot extend him as a part of the deal.

Leafsfan98 liked this.

May 5 at 10:00 a.m.

#11

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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Quoting: jonh514

The challenge is we can ot extend him as a part of the deal.

Likely... I think the Leafs want to jack up him value as much as possible so I see an extension being predetermined like PLD

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 10:42 a.m.

#12

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

Likely... I think the Leafs want to jack up him value as much as possible so I see an extension being predetermined like PLD

I mean we cannot. No sign & trade is possible. It would have to be a handshake deal or involve 2025 picks only...

May 5 at 10:46 a.m.

#13

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

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Quoting: jonh514

I mean we cannot. No sign & trade is possible. It would have to be a handshake deal or involve 2025 picks only...

That's what I mean... Marner agrees to an extension in MTL, just like PLD... Or am I missing something?

May 5 at 11:15 a.m.

#14

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

That's what I mean... Marner agrees to an extension in MTL, just like PLD... Or am I missing something?

Draft is before an extension is possible, no?

May 5 at 11:17 a.m.

#15

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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Quoting: jonh514

Draft is before an extension is possible, no?

Ohh... Yeah, it would have to be a handshake agreement...

But that's what would happen as if Marner waives the MTL (which I see 100% happening), he would be likely to sign an extension in the 1rst place

May 5 at 11:34 a.m.

#16

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

I dunno if a GM can trust a handshake agreement these days when a 6OA is involved...

May 5 at 11:42 a.m.

#17

bhavikp27

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 12,594

Likes: 5,464

It doesn't mean they would have built a Cup contender. Every year, GMs make stupid signings in free agency and nothing suggests the Leafs would have necessarily built a great team. Also, it doesn't matter if their top guys don't show up in elimination games.

May 5 at 11:51 a.m.

#18

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,093

Quoting: jonh514

I dunno if a GM can trust a handshake agreement these days when a 6OA is involved...

Yeah, but I'd be pretty confident if a guy waived his NMC and had a handshake extension tbh

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 12:18 p.m.

#19

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

Yeah, but I'd be pretty confident if a guy waived his NMC and had a handshake extension tbh

Would be nice!

Leafsfan98 liked this.

May 5 at 12:43 p.m.

#20

Fox_Czar_Cup

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 8,094

Likes: 1,479

All top teams were affected by stagnant cap.
Shanaplan was doomed eitherway. No goalie, big playoff Ds or F depth.
The 1 round dynasty is dead lol.

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 2:24 p.m.

#21

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Fox_Czar_Cup

All top teams were affected by stagnant cap.
Shanaplan was doomed eitherway. No goalie, big playoff Ds or F depth.
The 1 round dynasty is dead lol.

If they had an additional 10-12M, you think they wouldn't have brought in some better D and a goalie?

May 5 at 3:22 p.m.

#22

Fox_Czar_Cup

Joined: Apr. 2016

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Quoting: jonh514

If they had an additional 10-12M, you think they wouldn't have brought in some better D and a goalie?

While other top teams with leaders & character would have also added a weapon. TOR is a regular season built team

jonh514 liked this.

May 5 at 4:34 p.m.

#23

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Fox_Czar_Cup

While other top teams with leaders & character would have also added a weapon. TOR is a regular season built team

I would argue additional cap helps teams with the most elite talent more than teams with less elite talent.

May 5 at 7:11 p.m.

#24

Fox_Czar_Cup

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 8,094

Likes: 1,479

Quoting: jonh514

I would argue additional cap helps teams with the most elite talent more than teams with less elite talent.

It's a team game. Build a team, then grow together with the right leadership. They are built for the regular season, like many teams

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