24-25 Devils

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Devilsforlife

Team: 2024-25 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 16, 2024

Published: Apr. 16, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Accurate/Prorated

LTIR Enabled: Yes

Season Days: 192

Days Remaining: 192

Season Remaining: 100%

Projected Cap Hit Prior To Days Remaining

: $66,187,500

Description

Moving Jack to wing
Acquiring solid top 6 piece - Lindholm on "prove it" deal for 1 year
Acquiring elite goalie- 1st and Holtz for Ullmark
Improving overall depth- Amadio as 20-30 pt man on bottom 6, Grzelcyk for solid vet on LD, Martinook+Maroon instead of Palat on LW, still bring experience but higher point production and lower cap hit
Mercer bridge deal
Catton seems like he will be a solid pick, would go for Tij Iginla if CGY doesn't take him
Signing most guys to 1 year deals to free cap for Luke signing the season after 24-25
Personally I think we have a solid D-core but in probably 2 years we will have to move out Dougie, he is getting older and his 9 mil cap hit puts a dent in our space to sign guys later. Nico needs resigning in 3 years and Dougie takes up 9m through the year after. I know the cap grows year by year but adding 4-7 mil (probably) contracts for Nemec and Hughes + a possible Ullmark extension(and pay raise) and the extra 1-2 mil for Nico is stolen by an aging early thirties D-man that could be declining in the next couple years. I think what would especially warrant trading him out is another big injury next season, and a trade should be mainly talent for talent (not just Dougie for picks/prospects)

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Hämeenaho, Lenni		3	$950,000
Casey, Seamus		3	$950,000

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Mercer, Dawson		3	$3,250,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Willman, Max	2	$800,000
Tierney, Chris	2	$800,000
Nosek, Tomas	2	$800,000
MacDermid, Kurtis	2	$800,000
DeSimone, Nick	2	$800,000
Lindholm, Elias	1	$6,500,000
Amadio, Michael	2	$2,500,000
Grzelcyk, Matt	2	$3,250,000
Martinook, Jordan	1	$2,000,000
Maroon, Patrick	1	$1,200,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Catton, Berkly		3	$950,000

Trades

NJD

Ullmark, Linus

Additional Details:

Have to go with one or the other, seems like they will take Sway

BOS

Holtz, Alexander
2025 1st round pick (NJD)

Additional Details:

Holtz has shown promise but we have enough wingers to cover our top 6, Mercer has output more so far and shown he can be a point producer, so trade Holtz and sign Mercer to bridge deal.

NJD

2024 3rd round pick (PIT)

Additional Details:

Can go to any team for 3rd/4th pick

ANA

Palat, Ondrej

Additional Details:

The way I see it, we wanted a veteran player to bolster a young team in the ploffs, so we bought high and paid Palat a lot for a long term. Personally I want out of that contract because it frees up space to sign other guys and we still have room to bring someone else in that has playoff experience.

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
24	$87,000,000	$86,932,230	$1,538,897	$5,100,000	$67,770

Prorated Cap Hit

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 6	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Bratt, Jesper $7,875,000$7,875,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7
Meier, Timo $8,800,000$8,800,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 7	Lindholm, Elias $6,500,000$6,500,000 C, RW UFA	Mercer, Dawson $3,250,000$3,250,000 RW, C RFA
Martinook, Jordan $2,000,000$2,000,000 LW, RW UFA	Haula, Erik $3,150,000$3,150,000 C, LW NTC UFA - 2	Amadio, Michael $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW, LW UFA
Maroon, Patrick $1,200,000$1,200,000 LW, RW UFA	Tierney, Chris $800,000$800,000 C UFA	Lazar, Curtis $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Siegenthaler, Jonas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 4	Ullmark, Linus $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Hughes, Luke $925,000$925,000 ($1,850,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 1	Marino, John $4,400,000$4,400,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Grzelcyk, Matt $3,250,000$3,250,000 LD UFA	Nemec, Simon $918,333$918,333 ($3,250,000$3M) RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Bastian, Nathan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 1
Bahl, Kevin $1,050,000$1,050,000 LD RFA - 1
MacDermid, Kurtis $800,000$800,000 LD/RD, LW UFA
DeSimone, Nick $800,000$800,000 RD UFA

Apr. 16 at 3:57 p.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Holy overpay for Ullmark. either Holtz or the 1st. Not both

StutzlesNumber1Fan liked this.

Apr. 16 at 4:04 p.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,218

Likes: 7,008

Quoting: dgibb10

Holy overpay for Ullmark. either Holtz or the 1st. Not both

good news is i doubt boston would have any interest in Holtz. If it's a 2025 first, I think that offer gets beat.

dgibb10 and Newgod77 liked this.

Apr. 16 at 4:04 p.m.

Cornbreadnhl

Joined: Feb. 2024

Posts: 438

Likes: 195

Thinking Lindholm will sign a year "prove it" deal is silly. He will get lots of longer term offers and plenty of money.

Apr. 16 at 4:10 p.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Bcarlo25

good news is i doubt boston would have any interest in Holtz. If it's a 2025 first, I think that offer gets beat.

Presumably depending on the market NJD would add sweeteners to be the winning bid.

2025 1st for Ullmark as base. If there is absolutely no market in the low scenario for Boston and they need cap space, they may need to add a sweetener back to NJD (a Lauko type asset or a later pick).
And depending on bidding the sweetener will increase from NJDs side.

But 1st for Ullmark is the main thing. Let the better negotiator win in terms of the minor stuff around it.

Apr. 16 at 4:28 p.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,218

Likes: 7,008

Quoting: dgibb10

there's a big difference between a 24 first and a 25 first.

Apr. 16 at 4:33 p.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Bcarlo25

there's a big difference between a 24 first and a 25 first.

100%. But I would be shocked if 1 year of Ullmark with a 15 team NTC (that he has been willing to use) demands a top 10 pick.

Here are my goalies in the 2024 1st tier

Askarov
Saros
Shesterkin
Wallstedt
Swayman
Sorokin
Oetter
Helle
Demko

If you aren't one of those goalies, I wouldn't put the 2024 1st on the table

Apr. 16 at 4:50 p.m.

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

ANA isn’t taking Palat + a 1st for future considerations. You’re dreaming my friend, that’s NJD’s contract to deal with

Apr. 16 at 4:53 p.m.

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Jded

ANA isn’t taking Palat + a 1st for future considerations. You’re dreaming my friend, that’s NJD’s contract to deal with

Didn't they just give Killorn 6.4x4?

Apr. 16 at 4:55 p.m.

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,218

Likes: 7,008

Quoting: dgibb10

i'm not suggesting a top 10 pick.

Apr. 16 at 5:01 p.m.

#10

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Bcarlo25

i'm not suggesting a top 10 pick.

I'd expect any trade to occur after the draft. Extension talks can't begin until after the draft, bonuses are due, and the later 1sts aren't gonna be great in a shallow draft.

Apr. 16 at 7:26 p.m.

#11

Smitty426

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 6,848

Likes: 1,982

Quoting: Bcarlo25

there's a big difference between a 24 first and a 25 first.

Roughly the diff between Sway Ullmark

Apr. 16 at 8:33 p.m.

#12

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

Quoting: dgibb10

Didn't they just give Killorn 6.4x4?

Killorn: Signed for no draft compensation at $6.4M coming off a 27 goal, .78pt/g season

Palat: Asking a 3rd round pick at $6M coming off an 11 goal, .44pt/g season.

Help me understand your point

Apr. 16 at 8:39 p.m.

#13

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Jded

Killorn: Signed for no draft compensation at $6.4M coming off a 27 goal, .78pt/g season

Palat: Asking a 3rd round pick at $6M coming off an 11 goal, .44pt/g season.

Help me understand your point

Palat is significantly better in terms of possession, not taking penalties, and defensively. I'd rather have Palat.

With Palat on the ice, NJD has generated 58% of xGoals 5v5 over the last 2 years. He hasn't been below 50% since his 14 games in 2012.

Killorn hasn't been above 50% since 2019.

Apr. 16 at 11:09 p.m.

#14

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

Quoting: dgibb10

That’s suuuuper awesome, I’m stoked you’re so amped on him because I don’t see any way NJ is able to move that contract.

The key difference here is that everyone in ANA knows we had to overpay Killorn to come in the midst of a rebuild. We knew he wasn’t worth that full price tag even before the down year. I genuinely don’t know what to tell you if you think Palat is worth mote than 75% of his. Not even considering he’ll be like 36 when it ends

Apr. 16 at 11:17 p.m.

#15

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Jded

So anaheim brought in a bad contract because they needed to get a veteran short term. Palat is nearly 2 years younger than Killorn, better now, and cheaper.

Killorn contract= one anaheim is willing to take on because cup winning leadership
Presumably Palat would fall under the exact same umbrella.

Saying anaheim wouldn't take a free 1st for a virtually identical type of asset they willingly took on in free agency doesn't seem to check out.

Apr. 17 at 2:10 a.m.

#16

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

Quoting: dgibb10

Yes, they decided to overpay one veteran $6.4M who outproduced Palat by 77% at the time on a per game basis, with zero draft compensation going out the door to do so. If they didn’t already fill the shoes of a cup winning veteran, I’m sure a 77% discount for Palat for an equivalent overpayment would’ve been worth considering, which would be in the ballpark of $3.6M, again, for zero draft comp. However they now already have Killorn, and your offer here is Palat for $6M, not $3.6M 🤮

With Zegras, Terry, Gauthier, Vatrano, Killorn, Strome, Colangelo all on the wing, Palat is a $6M fourth line plug for 3 more seasons. Easily going to pass on him even with a late first to sweeten it. I really meant it that I’m glad you enjoy him. You’re going to have 3 more full seasons to enjoy him. Nobody’s touching that contract (just like how we’ll get to enjoy Killer for the remainder of his deal)

Apr. 17 at 7:12 a.m.

#17

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Jded

If your only evaluation of the game is points sure.

Palat for the last decade has consistently generated more offense for his team than he gives up.

Killorn for the last half decade has consistently given up more chances against than he generates for his own team.

Apr. 17 at 1:51 p.m.

#18

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

Quoting: dgibb10

Palat - relative corsi +2.9 and fenwick +3.1
Killer - corsi rel +6, fenwick rel +4.7

That looks like production and chances to me

Apr. 17 at 2:26 p.m.

#19

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Jded

Palat - relative corsi +2.9 and fenwick +3.1
Killer - corsi rel +6, fenwick rel +4.7

That looks like production and chances to me

Relative expected goals 5v5:

Killorn in the 4 years before Anaheim acquired him:
-2.6%,-6.2%,-4.6%,-3.5%
Palat in the last 4 years:
6.8%,3%,1%,3.9%

Apr. 17 at 3:14 p.m.

#20

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

Quoting: dgibb10

Relative expected goals 5v5:

Killorn in the 4 years before Anaheim acquired him:
-2.6%,-6.2%,-4.6%,-3.5%
Palat in the last 4 years:
6.8%,3%,1%,3.9%

Feels a little cherry picked to ignore the more recent year, no? Fine to include those years in addition, but I wouldn’t cut it out entirely

I think these two comments are true from a statistical pov:
1. Killorn is undoubted a higher point producing player than Palat
2. This past year, Killorn’s team had a better relative performance with him on the ice vs Palat’s team with him, though in previous years, Palat held the vantage.

I wouldn’t anticipate Killorn’s contract to be attractive at all in the open market. With similar cap, that would imply Palat’s would be one that teams would altogether avoid, even with a reasonable sweetener. I’m not sure I have much more to say tbh. Wish you and your devils good luck

Apr. 17 at 3:17 p.m.

#21

dgibb10

I Love J Boqvist

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 11,963

Likes: 3,160

Quoting: Jded

Feels a little cherry picked to ignore the more recent year, no? Fine to include those years in addition, but I wouldn’t cut them out.

I think these two comments are true from a statistical pov:
1. Killorn is u doubted a higher point producing player
2. This past year, Killorn’s team had a better relative performance with him on the ice vs Palat’s team with him

I wouldn’t anticipate Killorn’s contract to be attractive in the open market. That would imply Palat’s to be one that teams would altogether avoid, even with a reasonable sweetener

I didn't include the most recent year because that year had not happened when Anaheim gave 34 year old Killorn 6.4x4.

I agree Palat is a cap dump, but to suggest that Anaheim wouldn't take him+1st for free when they gave 6.4 mill to what is, in my opinion, a worse, older version of Palat.

Apr. 17 at 3:46 p.m.

#22

Jded

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 2,729

Likes: 1,764

Quoting: dgibb10

I think this is the third time I’m saying it. ANA already paid the $6.4M for a veteran winger. To assume they’d add a second makes no sense when they already have out one rich contract and now have zero spots in their top 9. Even then, if you asked Verbeek how much production he expected to get out of that $6.4M, I can guarantee you it was the over on what we got. With Palat, it’s all but guaranteed to be the under

There’s almost nothing that makes it worthwhile to add Palat in ANA. I genuinely think teams across the league will agree. Its great you guys enjoy him , maybe in 2 years he’ll be movable if the cap goes up enough and one team is itching for leadership like we were

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Forums/Armchair-GM

24-25 Devils

Description

Free Agent Signings

Trades

NJD

BOS

NJD

ANA

Recapture Fees

Roster

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Question:

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