75 goal differential offseason

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Created by: jonh514

Team: 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 15, 2024

Published: Apr. 15, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

The Habs focus this offseason should be deploying their cap space to ensure they have a major swing in Goal Differential. I think about 75 goals towards the positive IS possible between player growth, health, trades, and UFA acquisitions.

I am not very excited by the draft this season unless the Habs have a top 2 pick, I don't really expect the player to help this team for at least 3-4 years and I don't have the appetite to wait that long.

The Habs have something special going on right now. It's hard to see based on the results, but the number of 1 goal games is incredible. Just a little more scoring and defence and this team is in the playoffs. They DO have the cap space to acquire good veterans who can help the players we already have to do it by committee. 40-50 goal scorers is fun for the fans and for ticket sales, but there's nothing more important than good organizational depth if you want to win.

The Habs need to target 2 top 7 forwards this offseason who can play an excellent 2-way game right away next season and the team will be a force to be reckoned with.

We all want to discover "the next superstar". But the idea of "new" players working out for a team... is typically to manage the cap. The Habs don't actually have that problem. They have the other problem. The problem where while the new guys take their time developing, we are squandering important years of the Elite talent they have today in Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf, Matheson, and Guhle.

It's time for this team to take a big swing. We cannot build endlessly... or we will risk becoming the next Buffalo Sabres.

Monahan IS better than Lindholm right now and his value on the market is still lower because of his injury history.

Stephenson is like Danault. He's one of the best and most underrated defensive forwards in the league.

With a little luck on the health side, this team is different enough to make the playoffs... Believe it!

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Xhekaj, Arber		2	$1,400,000
Barron, Justin		2	$1,400,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Stephenson, Chandler		5	$6,000,000
Monahan, Sean		5	$6,000,000

Trades

MTL

SJS

Anderson, Josh
Evans, Jake
2024 5th round pick (SJS)
2024 7th round pick (EDM)
2025 3rd round pick (VAN)
2026 1st round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

Get Anderson gone ASAP

He needs a fresh start.

MTL

ANA

Kovacevic, Johnathan

Additional Details:

Anywhere for best offer

Retained Salary Transactions

Jeff Petry: $2,343,750 (50%)
Jake Allen: $1,925,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,500,000	$76,622,083	$1,022,500	$4,727,500	$10,877,917

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 7	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 6	Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 1
Stephenson, Chandler $6,000,000$6,000,000 C, LW UFA	Monahan, Sean $6,000,000$6,000,000 C, LW, RW UFA	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 2
Roy, Joshua $835,000$835,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Newhook, Alex $2,900,000$2,900,000 C, LW RFA - 3	Armia, Joel $3,400,000$3,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 1	Montembeault, Samuel $3,150,000$3,150,000 G UFA - 3
Hutson, Lane $950,000$950,000 ($750,000$750K) LD RFA - 2	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Primeau, Cayden $890,000$890,000 G RFA - 1
Struble, Jayden $867,500$867,500 ($57,500$58K) LD RFA - 1	Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 1
Xhekaj, Arber $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA	Barron, Justin $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 2

Apr. 15 at 11:35 a.m.

#26

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

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Quoting: jonh514

See that's where I disagree. I'm never moving Matheson. He's gonna play until we confuse his name with Markov.

Next year, as MTL, I would ship Matheson and Savard for the biggest package I could get, allowing 6 young defensemen to play, then acquire 2 vet defensemen in FA to teach the younger guys

Apr. 15 at 11:37 a.m.

#27

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,006

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

They do... But it can't be an overload where the younger guys have little to no chance at making the lineup bc it's filled with vets

None of the forwards are ready next year.

Beck - 1 year away
Mesar - 1-2 years away
Farrell - project player
F. Xhekaj - project player
L. Tuch - project player

Habs don't really have any other forward prospects of note. Like the rest of them are all really long shots to make the NHL.

Who are they blocking?

Apr. 15 at 11:38 a.m.

#28

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Leafsfan98

Next year, as MTL, I would ship Matheson and Savard for the biggest package I could get, allowing 6 young defensemen to play, then acquire 2 vet defensemen in FA to teach the younger guys

Offense starts from the Blueline in the modern NHL. We need BOTH Matheson & Hutson zipping around back there on 2 different pairs.

Apr. 15 at 11:40 a.m.

#29

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 5,977

Likes: 5,111

I honestly think this is a spot where the Habs can weaponize their cap space - offer Stephenson and Monahan higher AAV deals with shorter term so you're not worried about them clogging the lineup on the back half of the deal. Feels like you could throw 3x$7M at them and sell them on the idea that they should be easily able to get beat 2x$4.5M coming out of their age-32 seasons, especially if they show themselves to be great locker room guys, shepherding a young Habs team into contention.

jonh514 liked this.

Apr. 15 at 11:47 a.m.

#30

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: dannibalcorpse

Not opposed to higher AAV shorter term deals! Yours was the fist positive comment in 2 pages. Thanks!

dannibalcorpse liked this.

Apr. 15 at 12:10 p.m.

#31

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 5,977

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Quoting: jonh514

Not opposed to higher AAV shorter term deals! Yours was the fist positive comment in 2 pages. Thanks!

I mean, it makes sense. If you can dump Anderson and bring guys like Armia & Gallagher out of the top 6 and into more appropriate roles based on their production, I think you have something here.

I don't know if this team is good enough to swing the goal differential by 75 goals, but barring any other moves the Habs 2nd through 4th lines next year probably look like:

Gallagher - Newhook - Dach
Armia - Evans - Anderson
RHP - Dvorak - Pezzetta

To me, you've got Brendan Gallagher in over his head on that 2nd line, and then you've got two checking lines behind that. Adding Stephenson & Monahan while subtracting Anderson really shifts that middle 6 towards being more productive - and seeing as how you've still got nearly $12M in cap space with this team now, I think bumping up their combined AAVs around $3M is worth it. Like you said - there's no one in Laval really pushing to be in the lineup next year. The best scoring U25 players on the Rocket are Xavier Simoneau (5'7" center who somehow has 111 PiMs despite only fighting once this year) and Sean Farrell (5'9" winger who looked out of his depth at the NHL level last year and probably needs another year of seasoning at this point.) You're not holding anyone back by giving those top-6 spots to productive veterans.

jonh514 liked this.

Apr. 15 at 12:11 p.m.

#32

Jobob77

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 386

Likes: 125

Quoting: jonh514

He doesn't even crash or bang anymore. He's so bad. Terrible example for the kids. I don't understand what you think he's gonna do on the 3rd line that he didn't do on the 2nd and 1st.

Less pressure. Anderson is and was never a top 6 player. What do you expect from him? He never was a 30 goals guy. He had a single really good offensive season in Columbus. If next year he can fetch around 15 goals, 20 assists and more body checks, it is going to be a good year for him. He put on himself a lot of pressure to be that big offensive powerforward but that’s not who he is. MSL offensive concepts doesn’t fit him that well either.

I have a similar opinion as yours about UFA. I would also go after Monahan or any other offensive veteran. However, I would sign ideally just one and for 2 years. I would overpay if it is just for 2 years. Could go up to 7 millions for Monahan for a 2 years contracts.

Apr. 15 at 12:17 p.m.

#33

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: dannibalcorpse

I agree with your analysis with the exception of the fact that I feel Josh Roy sticks in a 3rd line role next year.

Apr. 15 at 12:19 p.m.

#34

jonh514

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Quoting: Jobob77

What I want from Josh Anderson is for him to crash and bang on the boards, cheat a little on the breakout and get some breakaways, and then crash the goalie on those breakaways. He did none of those things this year for like 60-70 goames.

Apr. 15 at 12:35 p.m.

#35

Jobob77

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 386

Likes: 125

Quoting: jonh514

He had those chances he created some breakaways but his finishing touch disapeared this year. His expected goals/60 is pretty much the same as last years but he didn’t convert on those chances as much. Could be more physical but it is still his 2nd best year for his number of hits.

Basically, offensively, there was a lack of finishing and physically, it what does pretty much every year. People see him bigger because of his contract. He is a 0.45-0.5 ppg player with 2.5 hits/game. This year was a down year yes, but fans need to stay rational and let him bounce back.

Apr. 15 at 12:40 p.m.

#36

dannibalcorpse

we miss leo k

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 5,977

Likes: 5,111

Quoting: jonh514

I agree with your analysis with the exception of the fact that I feel Josh Roy sticks in a 3rd line role next year.

Ah, I was looking at the line combos on DailyFaceoff and completely missed that he's hurt right now. I agree, he should be getting middle-6 minutes next year regardless of what they do next summer - he looks ready.

jonh514 liked this.

Apr. 15 at 12:49 p.m.

#37

Blazingbat11

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 3,873

Likes: 1,783

Quoting: jonh514

See that's where I disagree. I'm never moving Matheson. He's gonna play until we confuse his name with Markov.

I'm all for keeping Matheson, but the next General (Markov's nickname) he is not. Markov ran one of the league's best PP for YEARS, and as soon as he was gone, the Habs PP has sucked and hasn't been the same since...
Not only was Markov one the best PP players, but he also literally made the careers of multiple of his D partners (Komisarek, Souray, Streit, etc.). Matheson isn't even in the same ballpark as Markov.

As for your thread, I think you should only pick one of Monahan or Stephenson (and you can make a solid case for either, but I would take Stephenson). Tbh, if the Habs are going to target a Vegas free agent, it should be Marchessault. I didn't like the idea at first (another small forward blah blah blah) but looking further into his play (leading Vegas in scoring, especially at even strength) I think he'd be a great fit, let's say on a line with Slaf and Dach. The alternative to Marchessault in free agency is Toffoli.
So pick between Monahan or Stephenson, and Marchessault or Toffoli.

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Apr. 15 at 1:05 p.m.

#38

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

I appreciate your perspective. He's not Markov, I agree, Hopefully Hutson is!

As long as the Habs are adding 2 veteran forwards or 1 veteran forward and one Dach/Monahan style add of a forward like Lundell, I am happy.

I do not want to see Armia, Roy, Anderson, Gallagher, Evans, RHP in our top 6 unless there are injuries. Depending on camp I am on the fence about Newhook in the 2nd line LW spot, but either way we need to add 2 top 7 forwards.

Apr. 15 at 1:08 p.m.

#39

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

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Quoting: Jobob77

When Caufield's scoring dried up, he found a way to help the team by passing and forechecking. Anderson does not have the hockey sense to play for MSL. We can beat around the bush for hours and make all kinds of excuses for him. He has been spiralling since MSL asked him to play a game that is moving too fast for him. Time to let him go.

Apr. 15 at 1:46 p.m.

#40

Blazingbat11

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 3,873

Likes: 1,783

Quoting: jonh514

I appreciate your perspective. He's not Markov, I agree, Hopefully Hutson is!

As long as the Habs are adding 2 veteran forwards or 1 veteran forward and one Dach/Monahan style add of a forward like Lundell, I am happy.

I do not want to see Armia, Roy, Anderson, Gallagher, Evans, RHP in our top 6 unless there are injuries. Depending on camp I am on the fence about Newhook in the 2nd line LW spot, but either way we need to add 2 top 7 forwards.

Agree with everyone except Roy, I'm willing to give him a look and see just how high a ceiling he has. Roy really excelled at being a complementary guy with elite players (perfect example being Roy with Bedard at the world juniors). If MTL can't get a Marchessault or Toffoli this offseason, I could totally see a top 6 with Roy on the wing with Suzuki and Newhook (who had great chemistry together before Newhook's ankle injury and subsequent move to center), and Caufield - Dach - Slafkovksy to round things out.
But yeah, if Habs can get Monahan back and add another vet (Marchessault or Toffoli), that would be the ideal situation. Also, Roy and Monahan played great during their short time together. Would be a solid 3rd line duo.

jonh514 liked this.

Apr. 15 at 2:51 p.m.

#41

Jobob77

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 386

Likes: 125

Quoting: jonh514

You don’t give assets to dump a player that just had a down year when you are still in the rebuilding phase. MTL won’t be cup contenders for the next three years. He’s not the perfect fit with MSL style but I would not trade Gavin Mckenna to dump Anderson.

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