With Dawson Mercer's rookie contract ending this summer, what do you guys think his next contract will be? Do you think it'll be a bridge? A long term deal? I could see NJ possibly doing something like 6x6. Mercer and potentially a number 1 goalie have to be NJ's top priorities this summer. Let me know what you guys think.

if well negotiated, bridge deal at 2x3.75M

He is not yet arbitration eligible. So, technically, NJD could re-sign him at his QO for one year and re-evaluate the situation after next season. Depends what they can get him locked in for and how much term, I'd assume. If they can get him in at like $4.5m or less with some term, they probably do that. But if he wants $6M or more, they probably opt for the QO and wait approach. That walks him into arbitration, though, and leaves them open to an offer sheet next year, which is rare anyway.

Fitzy started talking long-term deal with him before season, but I imagine he wants to keep as much cap room as possible.

~$6.5m at max term (7-8 years)
~$3.5m on bridge (2-3 years)

Might get discount on 4-year deal

As for the goalie…I think a dman is probably more pressing short-term need. And something we may find easier to solve in-season. Goalie more of long-term issue to solve (and best solution may come internally). And there aren’t many goalies available that will make enough of a difference.

The problem there is that a long-term deal in 2025 may be a lot more expensive than this summer. So we could be saving $2-3m in 2024-25…but paying out much more later.

If we could lock him long-term at $6m today, I would consider it a win. $4.5m would be a bridge for him.

Well, that is a trick of the eye, though. The cap may be going up, but most cap hits are negotiated as a percentage of the teams total salary cap. As a percentage, salaries won't be rising as much as you think. But yes, they will be going up.

Also, if I am Mercer, I'm betting on myself and doing a bridge deal. Because he has the potential to be in the 8-10M range on a long term deal, if he is consistent and patient. If NJD insists on a long term deal, I wouldn't go lower than $7.5m, if I were him.

Sure, but I am saying buy early will cheapen the overall expense, especially for 2028-32 (his UFA years)

Scenario 1: In 2024, sign 8-year term at 7.5% of cap. ($6.2m until 2032, his age-30 season)

Scenario 2: In 2024, sign 2-year bridge at 4.0% of cap. ($3.3m until 2026, his age-24 season)

-- 2A: In 2026, sign 6-year term at 10% of cap. ($9.2m until 2032, his age-30 season)
-- 2B: In 2026, sign 6-year term at 5% of cap. ($4.6m until 2032, his age-30 season)
-- 2C: In 2026, sign 2-year term at 4% of cap. ($3.7m until 2028, his age-26 season)

Three sub-scenarios...after the bridge..
(2A) If he has two good years in 2024-25 and 2025-26 (example: 160 gp, 150 pts, wears "A", plays top-six)
(2B) If he has two alright years in 2024-25 and 2025-26 (example: 150 gp, 100 pts, plays middle six)
(2C) If he has two bad years in 2024-25 and 2025-26 (example: 100 gp, 60 pts, third liner)

If one thinks there is 65% chance of 2A, 25% chance of 2B, 10% chance of 2C....then we are saving money by going with "Scenario 1"