Quoting: Rags21
You were also a betting man that Panarin would continue to decline this year meanwhile he’s top 5 in points and 12 game point streak
Another perfect example is Brock Nelson randomly becoming good and scoring 35-40 goals late in his career. Or tage thompson randomly becoming good at age 25 lol. You can have an educated guess about regression but it’s not 100% gonna happen
Brock Nelson randomly becoming a 35-40 goal scorer? 29 expected goals last season, 20 in 72 the season before that and 20 in 56 the year before that. He has overproduced but it was never random.
Tage Thompson's wife had cancer and hes also an anomaly lol.
But im speaking so far this season, Laf has overproduced. So has Panarin but hes consistenlty overproduced his entire career
he also has gone from 1.3ppg, to 1.2, to 1.1. hes not finishing this year at his pace lol
And yes some players consistently overproduce these values but Laf, who has never proven anything, gives me no reason to believe he will continue to vastly overproduce this 13 game sample size
And another example is McDavid. Hes so talented hes always overproduced these metrics, and while he is now struggling because of injuries he is also proving that you cannot evade the math forever