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Forums/Armchair-GM

Marner wont make 8 figures

Created by: Goulet
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 13, 2018
Published: Dec. 13, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Only a dozen or so wingers make 7M or more (cap hit) and only 1, Kane, makes over 10M.
Marner is a great playmaker but he isn't Kane, and he hasn't won anything as of yet. Pastrnak, Nylander, and maybe Gaudreau is the best comparable. 9.25% of the cap is what he got, Nylander 8.8%, Pastrnak 8.89%.

Some may point to Draisaitl but at 11.33% he is a little overpaid.

Marner on a 6 year deal at 9.25% has him at 7,677,500 on a cap of the projected 83M. Given his production, this is a very realistic number for him, less on a 4 or 5 year deal, and again, realistically, the Leafs can't afford 8 year terms for Marner or Matthews without taking a step in the wrong direction as a team.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$7,677,500
Retained Salary Transactions
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
13$83,000,000$58,403,199$0$0$24,596,801
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
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$6,962,366$6,962,366
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$675,000$675,000
C
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$2,100,000$2,100,000
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Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
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ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Dec. 13, 2018 at 5:20 p.m.
#51
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Quoting: pharrow
Yeah the whole JT thing is way over blown. People want to make JT out like JT was a 100 point player who scored 40 goals a year. He wasn't.
He's a good player. But this act like he was under paid by Toronto is kind of laughable. Maybe he turned down more money from a team like Ottawa or Arizona. But they aren't over paying because he's skilled, they are over paying because no one wants to be in that dumpster fire.


San Jose reportedly offered him 13M but he wanted to play in Toronto. Tavares has been a top 10 centre in the league for almost a decade and his line mates have all been much better with him, than without him. Some got large paydays because of their production with him only to find themselves back in the minors without him.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 5:30 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: pharrow
I hate to break it to you but money is the exact reason they play. They don't play so the owner of the Leafs can get rich off them while they take discounts. I don't know why it's so hard for fans to understand that.
Nor do players care about the salary structure when it's their contract up.
As far as Marner is concerned, you can call him an elite passer or whatever else you want. He's a 20 goal scorer and people want to give him close to Matthews money who in his first 2 years was a 40 goal pace and this year he's gonna crack 50 unless he gets hurt, but will still have had a 50+ goal pace. They are not of the same value, even remotely. Matthews isn't OV. He doesn't just stand in some stupid circle and wait for other players to do all the work and pass it to him. He actually puts the puck on his stick and makes it happen. You got people wanting to pay Marner 9+ million for watching JT and Matthews do all that work. What an epic waste. He's not even close to being worth 9 million a year. I don't care how many assists he racks up. 7.5 maybe. But they will be forced into paying him because fans are stupid.


Ever notice that when a player is asked about their contract status they refer the problem to their agent? They play hockey to win, the money is a byproduct of their success. The agents are the ones trying to squeeze every dollar. The players of course want to get paid but the difference between $40M and $45M is negligible if you're winning versus losing.

Goals are worth more. Marner is uniquely pass first and less dangerous because of it. Of the salary comps I used, all score more goals and could be argued to be worth more. That being said, every game I watch, Marner is far more noticeable and impactful on the ice than Matthews. Matthews can be invisible for the bulk of the game but change its outcome with one shot.
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 6:07 p.m.
#53
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laugh laugh In what world would Marner ever sign for $700,00 more then Nylander? No way he signs that deal.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 6:23 p.m.
#54
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Quoting: Larkinisking
laugh laugh In what world would Marner ever sign for $700,00 more then Nylander? No way he signs that deal.


The same world where he scored 8 more points than Nylander prior to this year.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 6:31 p.m.
#55
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Quoting: Goulet
The same world where he scored 8 more points than Nylander prior to this year.


Go ahead and offer him that little, And he'll be sitting out like Willy did.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 6:40 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: Goulet
Excellent point. He plays with one of the best centres in the league and also has a LW producing at a point per game pace however.


I think too often we debate a signing in a bit of a vaccum. There are alot of star RFAs that need to be signed this summer. The leafs, Jets, Avs, Flames,
Bolts to name a few are going to need to open the vault and make some tough decisions.

Just like how Juice made the good point that Marner will negotiate his salary once Matthews is signed, each of these star rfas will be negotiating their salaries based on what their peers sign for. If one too many GMs start handing out Draistl deals, and say, as an example, Point gets 10M (i mean, why not? Hes tied with Marner in points right now, and some people are adamant thats what Mitch will get) then each RFA can leverage that to the moon.

Someone posted yesterday that they want to see some ruthless gm'ing . Me too! Its going to be an interesting off season
Dec. 13, 2018 at 6:50 p.m.
#57
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Quoting: palhal
I agree with Goulet. Most winger don't get over 9m, especially those just leaving their ELCs. I'm not a real believers in "hometown discount" but I think Marner could a guy that would like to stay a Leaf....forever. He has seen other Leafs achieve "idol" status, despite really never winning anything. Salming, Sittler, Clarke, Gilmour, Sundin. Hometown Marner would have god like status, as a long term Leaf especially if the Leafs won a Cup. About 8.5m X 8m might do next summer.


I said it before Pal when you posted this idea earlier, but i think thats a really interesting take on what might go on with Mitch's thinking. He grew up seeing the royalty treatment of ex Leafs. He probably knows that if he helps bring a cup to Toronto that he'll become a god in this town. That must be a strange thing to contemplate as a early 20 something kid. And an even tougher thing to walk away from. I think youre absolutely right, of the three Mitch is most likely to be a leaf for life.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 7:06 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: Juice
Perhaps the single worst analysis of Marner I’ve read. You’re probably the same type of leaf fan that doesn’t want to pay him but blasts others fans who want to trade for him.

The economics of the league determine player worth. Not your impression of how invaluable assists are.


9-10 million could land you Panarin. Please don't tell me that's his value. It's not. Not even close. One is a 30 goal scorer who is also a "playmaker" the other is not.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 7:07 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: Goulet
San Jose reportedly offered him 13M but he wanted to play in Toronto. Tavares has been a top 10 centre in the league for almost a decade and his line mates have all been much better with him, than without him. Some got large paydays because of their production with him only to find themselves back in the minors without him.


no one knows what SJS offered him. reportedly in the age of fake news means nothing.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 7:14 p.m.
#60
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Quoting: Goulet
Ever notice that when a player is asked about their contract status they refer the problem to their agent? They play hockey to win, the money is a byproduct of their success. The agents are the ones trying to squeeze every dollar. The players of course want to get paid but the difference between $40M and $45M is negligible if you're winning versus losing.

Goals are worth more. Marner is uniquely pass first and less dangerous because of it. Of the salary comps I used, all score more goals and could be argued to be worth more. That being said, every game I watch, Marner is far more noticeable and impactful on the ice than Matthews. Matthews can be invisible for the bulk of the game but change its outcome with one shot.


1. players use the agent line to not end up in the headlines. Are you kidding me. If they say something it's all over the front pages, it's an issue and it doesn't go away. They aren't stupid. That doesn't mean they aren't out there playing for money. If they weren't they would never strike.

2. End of a game I think every leafs fan out there would rather want the puck on Matthews stick than Marners. Period.
9-10 million a year they could sign a 30 goal dynamic player like Panarin for that much. It's insane people think a guy who nets 20 goals a year and racks up assist points, a lot of them on the power play, is worth that much.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 8:26 p.m.
#61
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Quoting: pharrow
no one knows what SJS offered him. reportedly in the age of fake news means nothing.


Hilarious. Now I'll picture Trump while I'm reading your rants.
Quoting: pharrow
1. players use the agent line to not end up in the headlines. Are you kidding me. If they say something it's all over the front pages, it's an issue and it doesn't go away. They aren't stupid. That doesn't mean they aren't out there playing for money. If they weren't they would never strike.

2. End of a game I think every leafs fan out there would rather want the puck on Matthews stick than Marners. Period.
9-10 million a year they could sign a 30 goal dynamic player like Panarin for that much. It's insane people think a guy who nets 20 goals a year and racks up assist points, a lot of them on the power play, is worth that much.


1. The players are focused on winning. I doubt they crunch the numbers like the fans do and when you're staring at a multimillion dollar paycheck, fighting over the scraps really makes little sense.
2. I don't know if Matthews even wants the puck on his stick. More often than not, he'll pass it to his winger and get open looking for the shot. So in theory, you want both Matthews and Marner out there.

I do agree that it is crazy to suggest Marner in the 9-10 range which is why I put out this thread using the comps that I did. Everyone has their "opinion" of what they think he'll get but none of those opinions are backed with anything tangible.

I think Marner has played himself into a position where his value is very similar to Matthews although they polarize one another in playing style. Both have a lot of room to grow.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 8:38 p.m.
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Quoting: Price_is_the_goat
players also want to make money! no better market to win??? wpg will win the cup before toronto does. nashville can win before toronto. tell me would a player choose the state of florida to play hockey or toronto??? not everyone wants to play in thier home town. the amount of pressure is insane. some guys love, most hate it.


$46M over six years isn't getting paid?
There are other contenders, of course, but those teams aren't likely to offer sheet Marner, they have their own cap problems.
You act like RFA's have a choice where they play, they don't.
It sure appears like the Leafs love being Leafs right now and I doubt that changes anytime soon.
Dec. 13, 2018 at 8:43 p.m.
#63
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Quoting: Price_is_the_goat
RT. they say he's a top 5 player in the league, but when it comes to contract talks, he's not better then gaudreau. i rmr just 2 weeks ago ppl were like oh he's the next patrick kane. stfu
Thatguy just proved it with his post above


Some fans forget there are good players on other teams as well. Gaudreau, I thought, was a great comp, that's why I used him. He's scored more goals and 16 more points so far, over the last three years.

Kane is in another league.
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Dec. 13, 2018 at 10:15 p.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
9-10 million could land you Panarin. Please don't tell me that's his value. It's not. Not even close. One is a 30 goal scorer who is also a "playmaker" the other is not.


You are spewing opinion as if it’s fact and look like a clown in the process.
Dec. 14, 2018 at 10:43 a.m.
#65
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Quoting: Juice
You are spewing opinion as if it’s fact and look like a clown in the process.


opinion what part of that is opinion?

You doubt they could sign Panarin for 10 million?
You somehow thing having panarin and trading out the rights to marner for a good ELC defense man or whatever else isn't more value? Please tell me what part of that is opinion?

There are some facts there. Panarin has cracked 30 goals multiple times, is a dynamic player. The guy who you want the puck on his stick in the clutch situation. No one is counting on Marner to net those goals.

The only clown in the process is you for thinking a 20 goal scorer who racks up a ton of assist points a lot of them on the power play is worth 9-10 million a year.
Dec. 14, 2018 at 5:17 p.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
opinion what part of that is opinion?

You doubt they could sign Panarin for 10 million?
You somehow thing having panarin and trading out the rights to marner for a good ELC defense man or whatever else isn't more value? Please tell me what part of that is opinion?

There are some facts there. Panarin has cracked 30 goals multiple times, is a dynamic player. The guy who you want the puck on his stick in the clutch situation. No one is counting on Marner to net those goals.

The only clown in the process is you for thinking a 20 goal scorer who racks up a ton of assist points a lot of them on the power play is worth 9-10 million a year.


hahah...ok...continue with your lazy analysis and don't bother actually watching games.

Quoting: pharrow
Please don't tell me that's his value. It's not. Not even close.


This is you, expressing an opinion...and trying to pass it off as fact. Guess what...you may think $1.39/L for gas is poor value, but (if you're even old enough to own a vehicle) I'm sure you go fill up that tank anyway.

Quoting: pharrow
opinion what part of that is opinion?

You doubt they could sign Panarin for 10 million?
You somehow thing having panarin and trading out the rights to marner for a good ELC defense man or whatever else isn't more value? Please tell me what part of that is opinion?.


This...is all an opinion. Are you simple? Please show me where Panarin says he will sign with the Leafs for $10m. Please show the substantiated proof that trading Marner for an ELC defender makes the Leafs better. You can't. Why? Because they are opinions...and predictions derrived from your opinions. They are very far from being factual.
Dec. 14, 2018 at 5:23 p.m.
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Quoting: Juice
hahah...ok...continue with your lazy analysis and don't bother actually watching games.



This is you, expressing an opinion...and trying to pass it off as fact. Guess what...you may think $1.39/L for gas is poor value, but (if you're even old enough to own a vehicle) I'm sure you go fill up that tank anyway.



This...is all an opinion. Are you simple? Please show me where Panarin says he will sign with the Leafs for $10m. Please show the substantiated proof that trading Marner for an ELC defender makes the Leafs better. You can't. Why? Because they are opinions...and predictions derrived from your opinions. They are very far from being factual.


Funny, you can look all across cap friendly and see Panarin valued in the 9-10 million range.
Second, signing Panarin and getting a good young player on a ELC would make them a much better team. That's not opinion. That's the reality of adding more talent than you lose.

If there is one person on here acting asinine about their opinion being fact it's you. Marners numbers last year were the same as Nylanders. The only reason they increased is because JT came onto the line and scored all the goals. Yet you want to cough up 10 million for him. You should be in the nut house. You probably want to give Kap 8 million too!
Dec. 14, 2018 at 6:34 p.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
Funny, you can look all across cap friendly and see Panarin valued in the 9-10 million range.
Second, signing Panarin and getting a good young player on a ELC would make them a much better team. That's not opinion. That's the reality of adding more talent than you lose.

If there is one person on here acting asinine about their opinion being fact it's you. Marners numbers last year were the same as Nylanders. The only reason they increased is because JT came onto the line and scored all the goals. Yet you want to cough up 10 million for him. You should be in the nut house. You probably want to give Kap 8 million too!


You seem to enjoy going on tangents and putting words in other people's mouths to help your point look good. Not once have I doubted was Panarin will be asking for. Not once have I said he's not a great player.

Ever look at Marner's pace last year when he was taken off the top line? 100+pts. Look at his pace now? 100+pts. Am I saying he'll get signed for $10+m? No. All I'm saying is he's well within his rights to start negotiations there and, IMO, if he signs for around $9.5m I'd consider it a deal.

If Buffalo calls you today and offers Dahlin for Marner straight up...are the Leafs a better team because of it? Maybe. Maybe not.

I'm sure you'll still find a way to twist my words to accommodate your agenda tho
Dec. 14, 2018 at 8:39 p.m.
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Quoting: Juice
You seem to enjoy going on tangents and putting words in other people's mouths to help your point look good. Not once have I doubted was Panarin will be asking for. Not once have I said he's not a great player.

Ever look at Marner's pace last year when he was taken off the top line? 100+pts. Look at his pace now? 100+pts. Am I saying he'll get signed for $10+m? No. All I'm saying is he's well within his rights to start negotiations there and, IMO, if he signs for around $9.5m I'd consider it a deal.

If Buffalo calls you today and offers Dahlin for Marner straight up...are the Leafs a better team because of it? Maybe. Maybe not.

I'm sure you'll still find a way to twist my words to accommodate your agenda tho


The only persons words being twisted is mine. I said straight up signing him for 9-10 million is a waste. Because they can sign a player like Panarin or even Stone for that kind of money. It allows them the ability to trade the rights of marner then for a really good return on a low ELC. You seem to live in fantasy land where that doesn't make Toronto a better team. It does. Period.
 
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