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Oggsford_Blues

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Forum: NHL TradesJun. 14, 2018 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread: (LAK / TBL) - Budaj for Andreoff
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dubby</b></div><div>Interesting. Budaj starting AHL maybe?</div></div>

Maybe. Although LA does have a good, young prospect in Cal Petersen that they'd want to get a lot of starts. He put up decent numbers in 41 AHL games last year and he looks to be the heir apparent to Quick. Budaj is older and has less upside than Campbell, but in the event that Quick gets injured, I would assume they would prefer Budaj taking a larger load than Campbell. After all, he did it well two seasons ago and he's a more known quantity than Campbell. But if Quick is healthy, they probably want the younger Campbell getting spot starts to potentially groom him into a solid backup.

So long story short, it looks like Budaj will be more of an all-or-nothing guy. He's either gonna take over for Quick if he gets injured or he's gonna sit in the AHL in a backup/tandem role.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 15, 2018 at 6:54 p.m.
Thread: Trades with MIN, MTL and PIT
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div>I think Lucic deal is tough as MTL would be placing a lot of pressure on Strome as the main immediate return, and Strome did not exactly thrive under the pressure of living up to replacing Eberle this year. MTL would definitely peg him as a 2C with either Drouin or a top FA to play 1C and that is asking a lot of him, especially as it would be his 3rd team in as many years.

MIN deal seems fair but not sure what it really achieves other than a change of scenery for the players involved. Yes, Coyle is cheaper to slot in as a 3C behind 97/29 but is it really worth it?

Variations of the PIT deal have been floating around this site for weeks. I think PIT doesn't need to include the pick; the teams can just do this deal as a straight up 4 player swap.

I think a JVR-McJesus-Rattie line could be awesome</div></div>

Thanks for the feedback
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2018 at 1:29 p.m.
Thread: Center Help/Draft Assets = Desperately Needed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div><a href="/users/F50marco" target="_blank"><a href="/users/F50marco" target="_blank">@F50marco</a></a> Do you guys think that Patches (50% RS) for Bjugstad + FLA 2018 1st (#15) is 'getting it right?' Seems better to me. I think any Patches trade also should have the condition of an extra 1st or at least a 2nd if he re-signs.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Yes i do but in negotiations things always get stretched out more than what we think so i could see the Habs adding something to help nudge Florida. Maybe its a prospect like McCarron and a 3rd or something. And as for a conditional if Pacioretty doesn't sign, I think that's a given but I'd also be feeding Tallon all the details of any discussions on Pacioretty's new potential contract so he knows what to expect. This trade doesn't happen unless Pacioretty is at least willing to go to Florida long term. Given that the Panthers are an up and coming team I can't see why he wouldn't want to. I know GM can't officially talk contract extensions until July 1st but you'd be naive to think they aren't doing quietly behind closed doors.</div></div>

I think that it being 15th overall would be getting it right. Montreal could throw in either a 3rd or a 4th with that, they have three 4th round picks so losing even their third isn't a huge deal. <a href="/users/F50marco" target="_blank"><a href="/users/F50marco" target="_blank">@F50marco</a></a> is right though, contract talks have to be disclosed, Pacioretty could ask for $6 million +. He might take a discount though because of the tax in the state, so if he takes a team friendly 6 year 5.5 - 6 million dollar deal in Florida then Montreal should have a conditional pick if that happens.

Montreal needs to be going into this draft looking to make it as significant as their 2007 draft. That year they had two first round picks and 3 second round picks, in those picks they took Ryan McDonough #12, Max Pacioretty #22 and PK Subban #46. This year they are coming into it with #3, #35, #38 and two more that are going to be in the top 50. Using Max to get into the first round will be another big piece, especially a top 15 pick where we might be able to get Bode Wilde, Jespero Kotkanimaki or Joe Veleno depending on who drops.

Excited to see what happens but should be interesting to see where MB goes.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2018 at 11:07 a.m.
Thread: Center Help/Draft Assets = Desperately Needed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div><a href="/users/F50marco" target="_blank">@F50marco</a> Do you guys think that Patches (50% RS) for Bjugstad + FLA 2018 1st (#15) is 'getting it right?' Seems better to me. I think any Patches trade also should have the condition of an extra 1st or at least a 2nd if he re-signs.</div></div>

Yes i do but in negotiations things always get stretched out more than what we think so i could see the Habs adding something to help nudge Florida. Maybe its a prospect like McCarron and a 3rd or something. And as for a conditional if Pacioretty doesn't sign, I think that's a given but I'd also be feeding Tallon all the details of any discussions on Pacioretty's new potential contract so he knows what to expect. This trade doesn't happen unless Pacioretty is at least willing to go to Florida long term. Given that the Panthers are an up and coming team I can't see why he wouldn't want to. I know GM can't officially talk contract extensions until July 1st but you'd be naive to think they aren't doing quietly behind closed doors.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2018 at 10:42 a.m.
Thread: Center Help/Draft Assets = Desperately Needed
Seen this Florida trade on here earlier and I stick to my opinion that you can’t get fair value out of that trade unless it includes a first round pick, not a second. Bjugstad has never eclipsed 50 points, even when playing on the top line last season. Pacioretty to Florida will put him on the top line with Barkov, for the first time in his career he will have an actual center, that means he could produce better then he has before in his career. Even if he goes back to his career average he is still a 60 point player that in that top six puts them back into the playoff picture.

While MTL adds a roster player that we hope will be able to carry the load as a 2C but probably forced into a bigger role, he might get 40-50 points. 34th overall is definitely the better side of the second round but still not high enough.

This is a trade MB has to get right, trading a proven 60 point player for a guy who would set career highs by getting 50 and has never gotten over 45 playing center, is not getting it right.

Especially since Florida doesn’t even want Bjugstad to play center, they have to many centers and are trying to get the best left wing or top four defenceman possible.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2018 at 10:34 a.m.
Thread: Center Help/Draft Assets = Desperately Needed
I think Pacioretty with 50% retained gets a better return. Mayeb Habs have to add a little something extra but that 1st rounder should be their goal. Not the 2nd rounder.

I see no point in the Detroit deal. Hudon had 30 points last year and had a really bad SH %, he was unlucky that means. Under normal circumstances he could of been a 40 poitn guy easily. He isn't a shoe in for a deal. Get rid of Schlemko for a late pick but keep Hudon. Sulak is already 24 its not like your getting a 20 year old here. If he is ready in a couple years he'll already be in his prime by that point. If you not an NHL'er before entering your prime age, I think you are simply not that good. Obviously there are exceptions but don't gamble a Hudon for that hope that Sulak at 26 is an NHL'er...
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2018 at 5:52 p.m.
Thread: DRAISAITL TO CAROLINA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div>Solid analysis but I think Drai might fetch more value than, say, 2 years of Faulk and a pick. What do you think about Drai + Isles 3rd for Hanifin/Gauthier?</div></div>
Yeah, I wouldn't do the trade if it was for Faulk either, that's just one of the two d-men that have been rumored to be available from Carolina along with Hanifin. Your trade proposal is a good one. You might even see if Hanifin/Bean would work - Bean is only 19, so he could be ready by the time Sekera is aging out. A winger would be better for now, though, so I get the want of Gauthier.

The only problem I see is that Hanifin is a LD, which Edmonton kind of has enough of, yes? I wouldn't be surprised if Edmonton has been talking to Philly about some of their highly rated defense prospects. All of them are big, some are probably ready to go, and they have some good RDs. Not for Draisaitl unless there is a lot of others thrown in - maybe one of the 1st round pick and a mid-forward prospect? Sanheim would be a great grab, for example. Philly is another team looking for a top 6 center.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 5, 2018 at 3:56 p.m.
Thread: Letting Carlson walk, Signing a familiar replacement, Grubi trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>I believe that the best way to go is giving up Grubauer, maybe Carlson because he has dropped off the past few years. Maybe try and package a Burakovski, Eller, or Oshie, and Eller or something like that to find a replacement for Carlson. And get some type of draft pick out of it. You could probably get a package with one of the forwards and Grubauer. The most amount of value back is trading Grubauer to a team that needs a Goalie. Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, or Islanders. Because Greiss isn't getting any younger and Johnny T will only last for so long. Islanders would pay good value for a guy like Grubauer. Especially with his .923 PCT and a 2.35 GAA. Greiss has a 3 GAA and .892 PCT and Halak on his contract year has 3 GAA and a .908 PCT. Halak is making 4.5 mil this year. Greiss has 2 more years and is making 3.5 mil. It would be a better player for Islanders to have a Grubauer.</div></div>

You can't replace Carlson. Subban isn't going anywhere, and definitely not for Eller.

Nice edit on the Isles. Their fans on here have pretty well banded together to decree Grubauer's value at a 2nd round pick, but a future one, neither of the good ones they have this year. :)

Carolina also needs a goalie, but has so few fans on here and no irl gm, so it's impossible to get a read on what they'd offer. He's worth a mid 1st, but Car moved up too high in the lottery. Maybe two seconds, or a second and a 2rhd? I think Bowey will develop some offense, so Pesce's complete lack of offense is a better fit than Faulk's total lack of defense, but each is worth Grubauer straight up. If Samsonov spends a whole year in Hershey, which of the three would you rather have?

Buf and Ari aren't the right fit.


OB, totally agree with you that Reirden isn't playing Djoos with Bowey. In fact, he's probably keeping Nisk and Orlov on the ice for the first half of each game to get a lead, then subbing in Orpik and Green, to hold it and build on it. Just two thirty minute shifts. NBA style. The strange thing is that, because he's Reirden, it will work.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2018 at 8:29 a.m.
Thread: NYI, CAR - Stansy, JVR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>The NYI trade is to clear cap as the hawks are overrun with 2nd and 3rd line D guys that are expendable but serviceable on other teams. Hawks can use another 2nd round pick this draft to help bolster our farm system also. With Jokiharju, Mitchell coming up and potentially Bouchard coming in, we really don't need all of Murphy, Oesterle, Rutta, Gus, and Forsling. We need to move a couple of them and Murphy has the biggest cap hit and frees space for us to fit in Stasny and JVR. Vinnie is good and full of grit and speed...I like him. He's got a lot of growth ahead of him, but he's not a C. He's a small quick forward much in the same way Debrincat, Kane, Sikura are. Put one of these guys on each line and we have speed. This is also the reason Duclair, whom I like a lot, is expendable as part of a trade. 4 guys with a similar game are great but a 5th is too much.</div></div>

Don't you see Vinnie as the next Shaw? He doesn't rack up the penalty minutes like Shaw did, but you're 100% correct that he's gritty and he plays just about anywhere. It's not exactly desired that he plays on the top line, but he's done it...much like Shaw. Having him at the dot isn't exactly the perfect scenario, but he's done it before! This past year he's really increase his possession ability and I hope to see he grow even more this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2018 at 4:03 a.m.
Thread: NYI, CAR - Stansy, JVR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div>Didn't know Schmaltz FO% was below 40. There's room for improvement for all young players but that low of a number is untenable. Either he improves over the offseason (it's a longer one than usual this year*) to the acceptable mid 40 range or signing an FA C like Stasny (and/or Nash!) becomes necessary. What's your opinion on Vinnie? Can he play C? His offensive numbers scream NHL player; should he get a look in a role higher than 4th line duty?

Curious about your motivation for the NYI trade. Are you just trying to clear salary/space for Joki/Bouchard/Oesterle in the lineup? I think even Garth Snow would take that deal; it seems a bit of a dump if you ask me.

*: sorry, had to</div></div>

The NYI trade is to clear cap as the hawks are overrun with 2nd and 3rd line D guys that are expendable but serviceable on other teams. Hawks can use another 2nd round pick this draft to help bolster our farm system also. With Jokiharju, Mitchell coming up and potentially Bouchard coming in, we really don't need all of Murphy, Oesterle, Rutta, Gus, and Forsling. We need to move a couple of them and Murphy has the biggest cap hit and frees space for us to fit in Stasny and JVR. Vinnie is good and full of grit and speed...I like him. He's got a lot of growth ahead of him, but he's not a C. He's a small quick forward much in the same way Debrincat, Kane, Sikura are. Put one of these guys on each line and we have speed. This is also the reason Duclair, whom I like a lot, is expendable as part of a trade. 4 guys with a similar game are great but a 5th is too much.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2018 at 7:39 a.m.
Thread: It was a shoulder to shoulder hit
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div>Agree with <a href="/users/Chopper02" target="_blank">@Chopper02</a> that 43's repeat status is what really got him here. Unfortunate that ZAR was hurt on the play but the trolls who are saying Wilson "jumped" or "targeted the head" are just that: trolls.

As a 6'5" defenseman I can speak from experience that it is a lot easier than you'd think to hit a 5'10" guy in the shoulder and make inadvertent contact with his head while following through. The massive size difference between Wilson and ZAR is an element few have mentioned.

Cheers to <a href="/users/NickC1988" target="_blank">@NickC1988</a> for the laugh; I'd expect nothing less from a guy with Torts as his PP.

<a href="/users/Ajp_18" target="_blank">@Ajp_18</a> I would agree with your rough assessment and say that under that framework Wilson should have been suspended for 2 games at most. Interesting how he conveniently will now sit out for the rest of the games in Pittsburgh.</div></div>

Sometimes it's hard as a 5'10 defeneman to not hit make any contact with the head on a 5'10 forward. Depending on how they're leaning or what happens right before contact it's logic that head contact will be made. I can only imagine what it would be like to be 6'4 plus. (Can i borrow a few inches? *No need to insert a joke here people)
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1, 2018 at 8:19 p.m.
Thread: Taking on Salary (PIT/ WSH/ NYI)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oggsford_Blues</b></div><div>Solid stuff, love the trades, but I'll hold out on 5 stars because the goaltending could absolutely melt down and ruin this team.

Also - do you think Reinhart will opt for a bridge deal or the 6yr one here? Just curious to hear your perspective</div></div>

I think the team would be wise to go term, not sure about Reinhart but the team holds most of the leverage. Term gets you past the inevitable mega Dahlin deal and cost certainty. Not to mention mittelstadt.

I went with the middle of the Drouin/Horvat deals. Those are the two best comps. Fair for both sides.

Also, I thought about adding Grubauer to the WSH deal and balancing it out with something on BUF end. Just got lazy lol