Congrats to you for being one the few CF posts that shows (in this Canucks) the roster of the team that takes on the larger Marner cap.

I wouldn't trade Marner alone for this. Hronek is very overrated, and the rest is nothing special. Marner can and will get more if he's traded. Although, Treliving is brutal so who knows.

To be clear, you think a pending UFA is gonna get more then: A young top 4 Dman, a first round pick, a second round pick, a top goalie prospect, a solid C prospect with middle 6 potential, and a depth prospect? When has a pending UFA ever gotten a return that big

You are just going to ignore the fact that the big draw on this trade is Hronek who needs a new contract and is apparently asking for 8 million while being completely carried by Hughes.

Now that we are on the same page. Let's talk about the 1 year nonsense. Marner has a NMC, he decides where he goes, why would he waive and not sign a contract? That makes no sense at all. So if he gets traded he is getting a contract as part of the trade. No one will trade for him without it and he won't waive for some place he doesn't want to go.

So now that that's out of the way on to the rest.

Who is the middle 6 player here? Or the depth prospect? Hirose is 26 and is not an NHLer. Raty is 21 and is an average AHLer.

Silvos looks not bad, did alright in the playoffs but a top goalie prospect he is not. Plus the Leafs have their guys already. Woll is legit and Hildeby has been a revelation in the minors.

Now the 1st and 2nd which are from next year and the year after respectively. What does that do for a win now club? Nothing.

Marner is a top 5 player at his position and would be arguable the best player in Vancouver. If he waived to go there he would sign there so it's a long term trade. Saying otherwise is just not genuine.

On top of that you want a current top 4 defenceman in Liljegren, and an actual middle 6 forward with upside in Robertson. This is a bunch of meh for Marner.

Filip Hronek produced at a higher PPG in his last year in Detroit than he did in Vancouver. Yes Quinn Hughes obviously helped him, but Hronek is a top 4 Dman either way.

Marner having a NMC does not in any way increase his value, if anything it does what happened with Giroux where he can force his way to 1 team, making Toronto lose out on a 'bidding war' for Marner. If you're going to complain about the Hronek extension then it should be pointed out that Marner would want like 12-13 on his next deal.

Yes Hirose is probably a long shot but he still could very easily end up being a 3rd pair/healthy scratch guy hence depth prospect.

Rate is still very much a middle six centre prospect. If you're just going to look at production, his pNHLe predicts him to be a 40-45 point NHLer which is easily middle 6. Anyone who scouts him generally says the same.

There were only 2 goalies younger than Arturs Silovs in the NHL this year. Askarov and Wallestadt. Feasibly Silovs will be one of the youngest goalies in the NHL getting consistent ice time next year along with those 2. He can very easily be a starter and I can't imagine Toronto wants to bank on a guy with as long of an injury history as Woll.

Draft picks are picks and you can use them to flip for good players if you're a contending team.

When, ever, has a player in Mariners situation gotten anything close to a return like this? My guess is never.

Marner's situation doesn't limit his value. Every team wants a player like him. To say otherwise is nonsense. He will likely give TO a few teams he'd be willing to sign with and then the negotiations happen. He isn't a 35+ year old like Giroux. Get real. His closest comparable is Tkachuk. And he's absolutely as valuable.

In the Matthew Tkachuk trade he is slightly younger Huberdeau. Not Matthew Tkachuk. Situation absolutely plays a role. It's gonna be the biggest pending UFA trade probably ever, but it's not gonna be a Matthew Tkachuk level value

No, Tkachuk is a top 5 RW. The same as Marner and they are the same age. Different styles sure but both top 5 RW. You don't think they are equal because you hate the Leafs.

Mitch Marner is obviously a top 5 right wing. Probably top 3. Huberdeau was a top 3 LW when he was traded. He's closer in age to Huberdeau, he is a pending UFA similar to Huberdeau, he just produced poorly in the playoffs similar to Huberdeau. The only difference is Huberdeau produced more while Marner is better defensively. There is 0 reason he'd be Tkachuk instead of Huberdeau.

Also, let's be honest. A lot of why what Tkachuk got looked like so much was because he was this "physical beast" which GMs drool over

Huberdeau was older by 3 years. This sort of nonsense is just bad faith discussion. You know you are looking for ways to lower his value to benefit your argument. Its transparent. I am all for trading Marner but if its going to be a losing trade, just don't do it. Hronek isn't worth moving Marner for. I see him as a good offensive defenseman but not great defensively. He isn't a shut down guy, and isn't the right partner for Rielly. I'd much rather have Timmins at his price tag for the 3rd pair and keep Marner. The rest doesn't add anything to TO in the short term. Silovs decent little run in the playoffs is cool and all but Woll was absolutely crazy good when healthy. They are going to put a lot into his training to hopefully keep him healthy and if he does, that's TO's answer in net. No need to spend big on a different young whatever potential young guy, the leafs have several options along the same lines. And as we have mentioned Raty and Hirose just doesn't do anything for TO nor does draft picks years from now.

And that doesn't even include Robertson who absolutely deserved way more ice time. He had a very high goals per minute rate. I think he was within the top 30, Keefe just didn't give him enough chances. You likely know this which is why you hope to sneak him in as a throw in when its another big win for you. Robertson is an NHLer, in the right circumstance I see a 30 goal season. Most likely not in TO, but he absolutely has modest value. He's shown a lot more than Raty or Hirose, a lot more. And Liljegren played 20 minutes for quite a bit of the season and was injured in the playoffs, hes 25 and was top 4 on a playoff team. This is a clear loss for TO. Adding Robertson and Liljegren makes is extremely bad for TO.

Huberdeau was 29 and a month Tkachuk was 24 and 7 months. Marner is 27. He is basically the dead centre of their ages. Purely age was it is just as fair to compare him to Huberdeau as Tkachuk (which you compared him to) Similar to Huberdeau it's trading for a pending UFA. If he's comparable to one of them, it's Huberdeau.

Including Robertson and Liljegren, yeah Toronto would say no. But Robertson just had his first season of 20+ games in his D+5 year, which is equivalent to Raty in 2025-2026 (worth noting Raty is very old for his draft class and Robertson is very young for his so you can argue it's like next year for Raty, that would be fair) and Liljegren I do really really like is not great for Toronto to give up. But the overall idea that Marner is going to get a package this big is just something that I couldn't see happen in any world

The NMC makes it more similar to Tkachuk, he wasn't going to get traded to a team he wasn't going to sign with. It would be the same for Marner.