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Forums/Armchair-GM

My take on the leafs

Created by: fifthlinefanatic
Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 7, 2024
Published: May 8, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I believe the cap is going up significantly so this roster should be cap-compliant by the fall. Definitely open to any feedback, positive or negative.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,400,000
1$850,000
1$850,000
2$1,550,000
1$850,000
1$850,000
1$1,100,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$6,500,000
3$1,750,000
4$3,500,000
4$7,250,000
3$3,000,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Moore, Trevor
  2. 2024 1st round pick (LAK)
  3. 2025 1st round pick (LAK)
  4. 2025 3rd round pick (LAK)
Additional Details:
2025 1st round pick is top-10 protected
Condition on 2025 3rd round pick: If Los Angeles reaches the 2nd round of the 2025 playoffs, pick upgrades to a 2025 2nd.

Using the Jack Eichel trade as a comparable for this one (Solid roster player, 1st round pick, high-end prospect, 2nd round pick). Firstly, LA is one of the only teams Marner might waive his NMC for. Other than Byfield and maybe Portillo, I don't think that the leafs would be particularly interested in anyone else, so they may want to just make the selections themselves. So, I substituted the high-end prospect for the 2025 first round pick.
LAK
  1. Marner, Mitchell
Additional Details:
Marner extends $12,000,000 x 8 years.
2.
TOR
  1. 2024 3rd round pick (COL)
ARI
  1. Järnkrok, Calle
Additional Details:
(Jarnkrok is a solid bottom 6er on a good contract, I just don't think he has a future in Toronto unfortunately).
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the COL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
2025
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2026
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,500,000$86,558,334$0$0-$3,058,334
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$13,250,000$13,250,000
C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,500,000$11,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$4,200,000$4,200,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
$7,250,000$7,250,000
LW, C
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C, RW
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$816,667$816,667
C, LW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,550,000$1,550,000
LW, RW
RFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,400,000$2,400,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, C
RFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$7,500,000$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$766,667$766,667
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,400,000$2,400,000
RD
RFA
$1,750,000$1,750,000
G
UFA
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LD
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000
LD
UFA - 3

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May 8 at 6:03 p.m.
#1
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Kings don't have the money for that Marner extension (let alone this season). He also has a NMC and lord that is a lot for a guy who the majority of his points came on Matthews wing. Between Byfield, Kempe, and Moore does LA need Marner?
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May 8 at 6:05 p.m.
#2
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fifthlinefanatic
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Quoting: tryger
Kings don't have the money for that Marner extension (let alone this season). He also has a NMC and lord that is a lot for a guy who the majority of his points came on Matthews wing. Between Byfield, Kempe, and Moore does LA need Marner?


Understandable. Just trying to think of team's that Marner would waive his NMC for. Thanks for the feedback.
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May 8 at 6:07 p.m.
#3
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Yes, that's a good deal, but let's be honest, the guy is not worth 12 million a year. I think Marner needs to eat some humble pie and drop his asking price. He's a 10.5 million per year player imo.
May 8 at 6:07 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: tryger
Kings don't have the money for that Marner extension (let alone this season). He also has a NMC and lord that is a lot for a guy who the majority of his points came on Matthews wing. Between Byfield, Kempe, and Moore does LA need Marner?


Marner would be your best player. While I would trade him. You do it if you get fair value and a middle 6 forward who's extremely small does not offer enough.
May 8 at 6:08 p.m.
#5
Rip
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Quoting: KingExLeafs
Yes, that's a good deal, but let's be honest, the guy is not worth 12 million a year. I think Marner needs to eat some humble pie and drop his asking price. He's a 10.5 million per year player imo.


If he took a pay cut, that's probably the only way he can get the Leafs fan base to support him again. God complex is gone unless he grows up really fast.
May 8 at 6:09 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: RipNasty
Marner would be your best player. While I would trade him. You do it if you get fair value and a middle 6 forward who's extremely small does not offer enough.


Kempe put up 70 points at half Marners cap hit and without Matthews as his center. Maybe he's the best player, but would he be the most cost-effective. I don't think he would be compared to Moore and Kempe, personally. Especially at $12M and a downgrade at the center position.
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May 8 at 6:10 p.m.
#7
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fifthlinefanatic
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Quoting: KingExLeafs
Yes, that's a good deal, but let's be honest, the guy is not worth 12 million a year. I think Marner needs to eat some humble pie and drop his asking price. He's a 10.5 million per year player imo.


I'd agree with that, but knowing Marner he'll hold out until the very last second. Market value suggests 10-11 million on a max extension. Thanks for the feedback.
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May 8 at 6:11 p.m.
#8
Rip
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Quoting: tryger
Kempe put up 70 points at half Marners cap hit and without Matthews as his center. Maybe he's the best player, but would he be the most cost-effective. I don't think he would be compared to Moore and Kempe, personally. Especially at $12M and a downgrade at the center position.


Marner would help anyone on your team score more. He was the reason JT had his single best season in the NHL. He scored at a 90 point pace in his 2nd season when he was RW with Kadri and Marleau. To suggest he only gets points because of Matthews is literally ridiculous. He has outscored Matthews several times. At least look up your stuff before spouting nonsense.
May 8 at 6:17 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: RipNasty
Marner would help anyone on your team score more. He was the reason JT had his single best season in the NHL. He scored at a 90 point pace in his 2nd season when he was RW with Kadri and Marleau. To suggest he only gets points because of Matthews is literally ridiculous. He has outscored Matthews several times. At least look up your stuff before spouting nonsense.


I did look it up before posting.

This season Marners most consistent line (36.5%) Knies, Matthews, Marner line was better in every metric compared and was good for 25 GF, 12+, 58.4 SF%, 55.0 CF% to Marner's second most common even strength line combination (11.2%) of Tavares, Marner, and Bertuzi was good for 4 GF, 0 +/-, 48.2 SF%, 53.9 CF%.

To say Marner is just as good with Tavares as Matthews is objectively untrue.
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May 8 at 7:03 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: tryger
I did look it up before posting.

This season Marners most consistent line (36.5%) Knies, Matthews, Marner line was better in every metric compared and was good for 25 GF, 12+, 58.4 SF%, 55.0 CF% to Marner's second most common even strength line combination (11.2%) of Tavares, Marner, and Bertuzi was good for 4 GF, 0 +/-, 48.2 SF%, 53.9 CF%.

To say Marner is just as good with Tavares as Matthews is objectively untrue.


36.5 vs 11.2 is quite the difference and is nonsense unless other context is given.
May 8 at 7:22 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: RipNasty
36.5 vs 11.2 is quite the difference and is nonsense unless other context is given.


So you want me to look at stats, but if they show that he doesn't play as well with players other than Matthews, it's too small of sample size? Forgive me, but isn't that a bit obtuse for someone who asked me to look it up?

Like look at how he does without Matthews, and tell me statistically he is just as good with Tavares. I think it's a fair question for a team who doesn't have a player like Matthews, but does have a player like Tavares.

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitch-marner
May 8 at 7:26 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: tryger
So you want me to look at stats, but if they show that he doesn't play as well with players other than Matthews, it's too small of sample size? Forgive me, but isn't that a bit obtuse for someone who asked me to look it up?

Like look at how he does without Matthews, and tell me statistically he is just as good with Tavares. I think it's a fair question for a team who doesn't have a player like Matthews, but does have a player like Tavares.

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitch-marner


You need to see other lines as well who are two most common centres. And then most common LW as well
May 8 at 7:33 p.m.
#13
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Solid roster! If people are arguing the value on your sign-and-trade contract I think you've done pretty well. Would love to see Moore back in the leafs org and I think he'd be the guy coming back if the Kings wanted Marner.

I think Stolarz gets at least a mil more on his deal, and I'd be really scared of taking OEL out of Florida's systems and committing 3 years to him at that value. Pesce and Stamkos signings look great.
May 8 at 7:37 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: RipNasty
You need to see other lines as well who are two most common centres. And then most common LW as well


In all situations from last season, it's Matthews as the most common center, by a lot like Tavares is the other 15% and that's pretty much it.

I looked through the data, Nylander and Tavares are so much better together than Marner is with Tavares, honestly, Nylander looks like more like what you are saying. He works with anyone, go back year by year. Marner and Matthews' most common linemates and unsurprisingly where most of his 5v5 production comes from. Yes, Tavares and Marner are great but that tends to work best when it's the powerplay and Matthews is there.

Matthews actually had a better shots for % with Bertuzzi and Domi and better CF%
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews



My theory is, I don't think Marner will be a 100-point player unless he has a current 90-point center with him. I think Kempe could get 100 points with Matthews as his center in 5v5 and the powerplay.
May 8 at 10:42 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: tryger
In all situations from last season, it's Matthews as the most common center, by a lot like Tavares is the other 15% and that's pretty much it.

I looked through the data, Nylander and Tavares are so much better together than Marner is with Tavares, honestly, Nylander looks like more like what you are saying. He works with anyone, go back year by year. Marner and Matthews' most common linemates and unsurprisingly where most of his 5v5 production comes from. Yes, Tavares and Marner are great but that tends to work best when it's the powerplay and Matthews is there.

Matthews actually had a better shots for % with Bertuzzi and Domi and better CF%
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews



My theory is, I don't think Marner will be a 100-point player unless he has a current 90-point center with him. I think Kempe could get 100 points with Matthews as his center in 5v5 and the powerplay.


Okay and how many 5v5 points did Marner score with Matthews vs his total 5v5 points?
May 9 at 10:23 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: RipNasty
Okay and how many 5v5 points did Marner score with Matthews vs his total 5v5 points?


Like 13 or 14 of his 57 points.

15 of his 85 points in all situations.

I’m not saying he’s bad, just that it’s hard to justify a $12M player when majority of his playtime and nearly all his powerplay production comes with one of the best players in the league. From a cost per point perspective, I think the leafs can find their version of Hyman or Kempe at half Mariners cap hit and still remain an offensive force.
May 9 at 4:46 p.m.
#17
Rip
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Quoting: tryger
Like 13 or 14 of his 57 points.

15 of his 85 points in all situations.

I’m not saying he’s bad, just that it’s hard to justify a $12M player when majority of his playtime and nearly all his powerplay production comes with one of the best players in the league. From a cost per point perspective, I think the leafs can find their version of Hyman or Kempe at half Mariners cap hit and still remain an offensive force.


Explain why Marner has led the Leafs in points more than Matthews? Marner isn't coasting to points off the backs of others. He makes it happen on the ice. He's a top 5 RW and a Selke finalist. Hyman was a leaf and he gets his points off the stick of McDavid. I could score 20 goals if you put me in front of the net for Edmonton's power play. Kempe is a good player but he's not half of the playmaker Marner is.
 
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