I see lots of armchair GM teams where people are giving him away for a late draft pick, why?

Even St. Louis was scratching him in favour of Harris and Barron for a bit. He has only played in 4 of the habs last 10 games, 3 of those were good games against NYI, EDM, COL, and in the poor effort against Ottawa he scored their only goal and was +1. Without Kovacevic in the lineup the team is trash defensively. My eye test tells me 6'5" 223 lbs right handed defenseman that can skate and handle the puck well is an asset to the team. Besides the eye test, here are some facts backed up by numbers:

1.) Harris, Guhle, Struble, and Xhekaj all put up their best numbers at 5v5 when they are paired with Kovacevic (pairs with at least 150 min together at 5v5 per NaturalStatTrick). That's over half of the current NHL defenseman on the roster, the only one that Kovacevic put up poor results with was Matheson.

Here's the data on that including 2022-23 for a larger sample (combining GF% to xGF% to combine results vs expected results):

Xhekaj - Kovacevic (113.59)
Struble - Kovacevic (111.09)
Guhle - Kovacevic (106.57)
Harris - Kovacevic (104.46)
Matheson - Savard (103.48)
Matheson - Barron (99.91)
Guhle - Barron (98.95)
Harris - Barron (93.33)
Xhekaj - Harris* (93.07)
Matheson - Guhle* (80.91)
Matheson - Kovacevic (78.03)
Guhle - Savard (70.96)
Harris - Savard (69.50)

2.) Kovacevic is also the habs best penalty killer, his GA and xGA / 60 is significantly better than the rest of the lineup.

Kovacevic: 7.57 GA/60, 7.92 xGA/60
Harris: 9.80 GA/60, 7.67 xGA/60
Guhle: 9.70 GA/60, 9.42 xGA/60
Matheson: 11.06 GA/60 , 10.46 xGA/60
Savard: 10.97 GA/60, 12.99 xGA/60
Barron: 14.54 GA/60, 8.51 xGA/60

So what gives? This guy looks like the ideal 3rd pair defenseman for any contender. He has an amazing contract (less than league minimum for this season on the next), he can play with almost any D partner, he is right handed (which is a need for almost every NHL team), he is a good penalty killer, and he has size. Why did St. Louis scratch him, and why are we trying to give him away for a late pick? I wouldn't accept anything less than a late 1st for Kovacevic.

I like Kovacevic, and these stats prove that he's done well. My question to you would be why would a contender give up a 1st for him if he's only a 3rd pair D-man? I'm not saying he doesn't have value, quite the opposite, however contenders are likely to be low in draft capital and therefore have to spend the assets (especially their high quality ones) wisely. For example, the Leafs have no 2nd round picks, and 2 1sts in the next 3 years. They would be much more likely to spend a 1st on a deal involving a top 4 (ideally top 2) D-man than a 3rd pair D-man. If the goal is to move Kovacevic at the deadline for a 1st, I would suggest giving him every opportunity to prove himself in the top 4, special teams, maybe even top pair if he's doing well. Then you could justify asking for a 1st, let me know if I'm missing anything here.

Great questions and good points, yes I agree, if a contender has limited assets and a need for a top pair D or F (along with the cap space to accommodate acquiring one) then yes they shouldn't be interested in a defender like Kovacevic.

A team that might spend a 1st on Kovacevic would be a contender that is up against the cap and has a need for a reliable RHD with size that can kill penalties. Recall TB trading a 1st, 3rd, and 4th for a soon to be UFA David Savard (retained down to ~$1M cap hit) for their cup run in 2021. Sure, Savard was more 'proven' than Kovacevic, however the numbers show Kovacevic is very reliable on a bad team and unlike Savard, Kovacevic still has another year remaining on his contract of less than $775k so you'd be acquiring Kovacevic for 2 cup runs at least.

I'm not saying that teams should be trading a 1st round pick for Kovacevic, merely that's roughly what the cost would be for me if one was calling. Trying to bring awareness to just how good he has been for MTL because I feel a lot of fans overlook him. I'm not even sure MTL management understands just how good he has been, given his usage.