Monahans trade value

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First, let me say, great description and forethought. Your comparisons (while they have their warts, see below) are well thought out.

The problem with the Stastny comparison is history. Paul was relatively healthy and a 40-60 point guy (averaging about 2.3 points per 60) in the previous 4 years. Monahan has been unhealthy and hasn't put up 40+ points in 4 years (averaging 1.5 points per 60 in his last full-ish season).

The Copp example is similar in that he also didn't have much history (1 full good season before the trade) but he was 25 and had a lot of speculation value. The Rangers thought maybe he had more and maybe they could resign him.

The other flaw is that Monahan is VERY PP dependent. He has 9 points in the PP and 8 at even strength. Both Copp and Stastny had better numbers 5v5.

So Monahan is likely worth less than both. He is older than Copp and has a less productive history than Stastny. He also has an injury history and was just dumped (with a 1st) last offseason. He also is weaker 5v5.

I am in the 2nd + B prospect camp, assuming a team needs PP help, Monahan stays healthy, and a team is willing to overpay.

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Dec. 18, 2023 at 10:58 a.m.

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Quoting: Gofnut999

At the deadline, probably not far off.

Won’t be Boston. Not paying that for someone they don’t need and has been PP dependent for production while being lousy 5v5.

This is definitely the narrative of those claiming he's not worth much. and there's "some" level of truth to it, but it's clearly over exaggerated.
Monahan plays on the 1st PP untit for MTL and has 9 PP pts. Looking at his 5V5 stats, he's producing at a rate of a 3rd line Center, so claiming he's dependent on the PP for production is not entirely true. He has negative possession metrics at 5V5 but starts 60% of the time in the defensive zone (so he's used as the Habs primary defensive center) on one of the league's worst teams. So being "lousy" at 5V5 is clearly misleading.

Boston might not have Monahan as their top priority for a Center (most likely they are targeting Lindholm), but it wouldn't surprise me if they focus on Monahan if they miss out on Lindholm.

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Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:06 a.m.

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?

Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:10 a.m.

Gofnut999

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

Problem with your theory. They want Elias long term. They don’t want or need a 3C rental. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:10 a.m.

#10

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Quoting: MitchJr

with regards to his injury history, I would agree that it would impact his value for teams looking to sign him to an extension. But as a deadline rental, at worst it would be conditions being added to draft picks depending on if he's stays healthy (playing 50% of games in the playoffs or something like that)

Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:13 a.m.

#11

MTLaveragefan

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Quoting: phillyjabroni

Not only deployment... you have to see who his linemates are... He has not played with the cream of the crop. But when he is paired with actually good players (like on the PP), he does great things.

Hard to get points when you have a defensive role playing with Pearson, Gallagher and Anderson.

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Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:14 a.m.

#12

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Quoting: Gofnut999

Problem with your theory. They want Elias long term. They don’t want or need a 3C rental. 🤷🏻‍♂️

What I meant is that if BOS don't get Lindholm, I would be surprised if they don't do anything at all. And other from Lindholm, Monahan, and maybe Henrique, there really isn't much available at center.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:16 a.m.

#13

Gofnut999

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

I think they go after Hanifin and stick with what they have at center. Sweeney has wanted Noah since he was in HS and they need a top 4 LD and PP QB far more than they need a center.

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Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:24 a.m.

#14

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Quoting: phillyjabroni

Quoting: MTLaveragefan

This too lol, Monahan was on a 70 pts pace, and as soon as he got glued to Anderson, like everybody else getting to play with him, production took a major hit. I don't think it can be overstated how horrible Anderson has been, not just for himself, but on how he's been impacting his teammates on the ice too...

and I believe whoever will be acquiring Monahan (again, if he's available) will most likely use him on their 2nd PP unit, and use him as a solid face off centermen (he's one of the Habs best with 57% on face offs).

Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.

#15

dgibb10

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Quoting: MTLaveragefan

Most players would put up points with 4 minutes a game on PP1 where your job is to stand in front of the net and hope for a tip or a breakdown around you. Monahan isn’t creating anything on the PP, he just exists on it.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 11:33 a.m.

#16

masterjuddi

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I think it's an overpay for him, but I like your reasoning and some team probably pays it.
The last 4 years have been a struggle for him. I know he's been injured but when he's played he hasn't been top 6 on a good team anyways

Dec. 18, 2023 at 12:45 p.m.

#17

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Quoting: phillyjabroni

Monahan has 5 primary points (8 total) at 5v5 in 30 games this year. He does have a slightly unfavorable deployment (~41 o-zone start rate), but his possession and expected results are poor. I don’t think any contending team will utilize him on the top PP unit and he doesn’t have PK upside. Why wouldn’t a team just trade for Ryan Poehling instead for a much cheaper price tag?

I would disagree with that. He is quite good on the PP.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 12:47 p.m.

#18

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Quoting: dgibb10

See that is why a team like the Pens would trade for him. They sorely miss that guy who stands in front of the net and creates havoc.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 12:56 p.m.

#19

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Quoting: Victor24

See that is why a team like the Pens would trade for him. They sorely miss that guy who stands in front of the net and creates havoc.

The pens are much more likely to be sellers than buyers. Certainly aren’t giving their 1st this year for a rental

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Dec. 18, 2023 at 1:06 p.m.

#20

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Quoting: MTLaveragefan

“You also look at how Pearson and Gallagher have played with and without Monahan, they have played far better without him than with him. Pearson sees a tremendous surge in expected results (39.90 xGF% ---> 57.33 xGF%), while also having less favorable deployment (18.10 O-Zone FO / 60 ---> 10.79 O-Zone FO /60). Same deal with Gallagher, (49.45 xGF% ---> 59.79 xGF%) with slightly less favorable deployment. The TOI with and without Monahan is close as well, so it's a pretty even sample size.”

I wrote this back on 12/10 in a different thread so the numbers might be dated slightly, but those “anchors” play better without Monahan in a nearly 50/50 sample size split.

My larger point is that anyone paying a 1st for Monahan would be banking that he can somehow now produce at 5v5 given more favorable deployment/linemates and would have to utilize him on the PP1. Those same linemates of his play better away from him. I’m not sure how many teams have that need for him given that criteria. He’s a fine player, but a 1st for him just cannot see teams going to that price barring multiple injuries

Dec. 18, 2023 at 1:07 p.m.

#21

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Quoting: Victor24

I would disagree with that. He is quite good on the PP.

Even then, how many teams that are contenders are struggling on the PowerPlay enough to move a 1st rounder for him?

Dec. 18, 2023 at 1:11 p.m.

#22

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

I agree with your future assessment of where Monahan fits into a new lineup, but disagree that the price tag for that does not cover the benefit he provides as a 2PP man and winning face offs.

Yes Anderson weighed him down, but he still wasn’t spectacular without him either.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.

#23

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Quoting: phillyjabroni

Even then, how many teams that are contenders are struggling on the PowerPlay enough to move a 1st rounder for him?

Well, there are teams in a playoff spot operating with sub 20% PPs (WIN, PHI, WSH, FLA). I agree some of those teams probably don't move a 1st for Monahan, but I did say in the description that a 2nd rd pick (maybe with a condition of becoming a 1st depending on the prospect included) + a solid prospect is definitely viable. Come to think of it, Cheveldayoff in WIN has a history of going after Centers at the deadline. Could be an option.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 6:01 p.m.

#24

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Quoting: dgibb10

The pens are much more likely to be sellers than buyers. Certainly aren’t giving their 1st this year for a rental

I disagree with the first part but I do agree they don't move a 1st. I also don't believe Monahan is worth a 1st.

Dec. 18, 2023 at 6:05 p.m.

#25