Joined: Jul. 2021
Posts: 1,052
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I suspect the team knows this contract is not likely to age well, but they went for it anyway for a few reasons:
1) I’m not sure they’re on a path to contend for another cup before Ovechkin retires, but if that’s their goal, they need Wilson and would give him whatever it took to keep him from going to free agency, where he would be in high demand barring some disaster between now and then.
2) After Ovechkin retires, they’ll be starting a long rebuild, so they don’t care if they’re saddled with a bad contract then. Cap space in the early years of the contract is more important, so better to go long term with a lower AAV than what it would cost to sign him short term.
3) His recent injury history doesn’t concern them too much, because if things get worse he could qualify for LTIR, which would free them from this bad contract.
The thing I think they’re likely to regret most is the big signing bonuses in the last two years, which effectively eliminate the possibility of a buyout. This makes me think the team just rolled over and gave him whatever he asked for. It also tells me that even Wilson doesn’t think he’ll be worth anywhere near what they’ll be paying him by then. Otherwise he could potentially benefit from a buyout by signing another contract somewhere else that would pay him more than what he lost from the buyout.