Karlsson
Pittsburgh should have Yager as untouchable, and Smith/Nylander close to, although if it came down to it they could be added if Anaheim or SJ targeted them.
San Jose gets
- POJ
- 24 1st
- 25 2nd conditional to a 1st if we advance to conf. final/cup final
- Prospect/Roster player. What would they want?
- Sweetener of Another mid pick somewhere? What do they want? Roster player?
- Salary retention on karlsson
Anaheim gets
- Granlund
- DOC
- 26 1st
- What do they want? A roster player because their defense is terrible? Or a prospect? Another pick? Smith/Nylander? Name their price but don’t get greedy
- Salary retention on karlsson
Chicago gets
- Guentzel
- DeSmith
Penguins get
From SJ
Nothing, technically
From Anaheim
Terry
Karlsson w/ retention
Our 3rd rd pick back, or a mid to lower round pick
From Chicago
24 1st (preferably theirs, but depends on what kind of prospect we could get)
24 2nd (they have 3)
Defensive Prospect (Allan, Vlasic, Kaiser, Phillips, Galvas)
Sign Ferguson and MAYBE Dumba?
Logic:
San Jose => is in pure rebuild, basically. They should want futures, and they should want good young players.
- POJ makes sense as the centerpiece for this trade because he is signed to one more year ELC, he is a young defensemen that needs room for growth/make mistakes, and he fits the timeline of the Sharks rebuild.
- The 1st round pick next year is a no brainer and an asset that’s necessary to make this deal work.
- The conditional 2nd in 25 helps them out because if we have success with Karlsson in year one, OR year 2, they get rewarded for trading him to us.
o 2 1st round picks is quite a haul, a first and a second isn’t bad either.
- Another player or prospect would make this a bit of an overpayment; with the current cap structure, this deal will be super hard to pull off; we are doing them a favor by getting him off their books and them getting real pieces back.
o Them retaining is important too, but that number is totally up in the air; the more they retain the more we could give them.
o I wouldn’t give up Nylander/Smith unless they demanded it.
- Would they want any players from our active roster? If not, what kind of prospect suits them most? Their defense is terrible, but our defensive prospect pool is thin; their offense is also terrible, would make sense for both teams to include a player like Hallander, Poulin, Pusstinen, or Gruden.
Anaheim => is also in rebuild mode, but they are signing free agents so (at least internally) they are ahead in their rebuild; they’d rather be better faster. Getting Terry from them is tricky, because he’s a player that has put up two 60+ point seasons in a row. He has chemistry with Zegras. Do they want to move him? Hopefully they do, and if so, what’d his cost be plus Karlsson retention?
- Granlund would be a replacement roster player for Terry who is cheaper in the long term than the money Terry will most likely get on his next deal. Terry already signed a cheap bridge deal, and his play warrants a big time raise. Are they comfortable signing him to a long term deal with so much else about their core in question? What does Zegras’ next deal look like? Drysdale? What about Gibson?
- On one hand it looks like Terry would be the perfect type of player they’d like to get locked up long term, on the other hand, he remains unsigned halfway through the summer, and you look at their long term cap space, and it’s unmuddled by bad deals to younger players… lots of money to go around… but also…lots could be saved…
o I’m unsure of their main goals, if it would be to get younger or add roster players
- Today the Ducks sit at 27M in cap space, the most in the league by a wide margin.
- DOC serves both those roles (NHL player and young) and remains unsigned as well. He would be a nice depth/character add for them. His ceiling is yet to be determined, his minutes low on a deep Pittsburgh team.
- The 26 1st fits their timeline, and is a big time sweetener. Basically, it’s a necessary part to this deal because of the addition of Terry, and the proposed retention.
o Similar to San Jose, they could get more added to the package if they increased the retention.
- The next part could change how the rest of the trade looks, but the Ducks defense is also absolutely terrible. Realistically SJ and Anaheim might have the two worst bluelines in the league.
o In this case, what would their interest in Petry, Pettersson, or Rutta look like?
o They might be highly interested in bringing back Pettersson. He’s a legit top 4 guy now. Petry might want to move to CA. Rutta might be the third best D on their roster if they got him, and his cap hit is meaningless to them. If that’s the case, we would get some sort of draft pick compensation coming back to us, as well as Terry.
Depends what Verbeek wants from our roster. But like I said above, don’t get greedy!
- Anaheim gets out of the long term cap hit of Terry, adds roster depth, and gets a 1st rd pick. Granlund basically replaces his spot in the lineup, 1 for 1, and maybe they get an NHL roster defensemen out of it too.
o Basically they get better as a team from this deal, draft capital and on the ice, even with the inclusion of Terry coming our way.
- If anyone argues Anaheim would need more for this deal to go through, that’s why I left room for a roster player or prospect to come back, and I’m not sure who they would want, so the scope changes with the goals of Anaheim’s front office.
o If you have to overpay, you do it a bit, maybe swinging one of the pieces from Chicago their way.
- For us to get Karlsson, it is CRUCIAL that another team picks up some of the retention. There is no other way around it. Plus, getting Terry would really boost the loss of Jake.
Chicago=> have fast tracked their rebuild with the drafting of Bedard, trading of win now pieces, and oodles of long term cap space. For instance, after this season, they clear ~36M in space. To get Jake and DeSmith, it addresses two areas of need for them, and for what they already have, it doesn’t take that much away.
- Guentzel would be a huge add for them up front. He would immediately make their top line of Bedard and Hall one of the most interesting in the league. He is unsigned UFA after this year, so if they suck, they can move him at the deadline for a massive haul to recoup all their losses they send to us in getting him. I could see them salivating to get a player like him, because you’d imagine they’d overpay to keep him around for the entirety of Bedard’s young career. Big time win for them getting Jake here.
- Their goaltending situation is… not great. DeSmith brings them credible back up goaltending on a cheap hit for one year. It addresses one of their needs and clears cap for us. Basically another win win for them, as they could also trade him at the deadline to recoup if they need to.
So that outlines how all the other teams that aren’t the Pens could look at this deal, or how they would rationalize making these moves. All the teams win. Now on to the Pens.
- Giving up POJ is necessary to make this deal work. He will be missed, but if we keep Smith/Petry, our pairings will still be balanced.
- The biggest deal out of all these is the movement of Jake. Getting Terry mitigates that, but to be honest, he isn’t as good as Jake, at least, has never put up numbers as good. There is a drop off there, on paper, but it is worth it.
o Terry’s next deal could easily be 5-6.5M range. Jake’s next deal could approach 10M depending on the cap and how he plays this year. You aren’t just getting another top line winger, you are getting a cheaper one.
And perhaps not just a cheaper one, but a more dynamic one. Jake has been stapled to Crosby his entire career. Terry will most likely move around the top 6 a bit. Maybe he’ll even drop to the 3rd line depending on how Nylander shows up at camp.
o Regardless, you are getting a top line winger and moving one out. You’d just hope Terry would be able to acclimate and produce here, which to be honest, is no guarantee.
- All the draft picks, prospects, none of that truly matters, as the Pens are in win now mode for the foreseeable future anyway. We aren’t about to start tanking any time soon with the core intact and Sullivan as the coach. **** it. Take the Tampa approach and get the guys for your team.
o Plus, you know, getting stuff from Chicago back for Jake also mitigates how much we gave to the CA teams to get EK.
- All that being said, if they can pull this off without losing Pettersson, our blue line immediately becomes one of the best in the league, rivaling Carolina’s, with these pairings.
EK-Graves/Pettersson
Letang-Graves/Pettersson
Petry-Rutta
Smith/Ruhwedel
That’s if we don’t include any of those guys in the deals. But look how beautiful that is. No other teams have 3 #1 guys, outside of Carolina. There might be some growing pains, but when you talk about balance and offensive ability… I mean, it’s a no brainer.
The forwards would look something like
Terry-Crosby-Rust/Rakell
Smith-Malkin-Rust/Rakell
Nieto-Eller-Carter
Nylander-Acciari-Johnsson
That group looks good, with or without Jake in it.
A final couple of notes
o Maybe some of the pieces we get from Chicago need to be used to facilitate the Anaheim portion of the deal. If they want more, or stuff we can’t give, maybe part of Jake’s return is used to grease the wheels. Personally I think Granlund for Terry straight up is much more fair than it looks like on paper. Of course you’d have to add a bit to that, but in general, this is how you get it done.
o Once this deal is complete, you finish the summer by signing Dumba to pair with Petry on the bottom pairing, and you sign Dylan Ferguson to compete with Neddy for the back up G spot.
Biggest hurdle is convincing Anaheim to play ball, but Verbeek has to weaponize that cap space somehow!
Get on the phone Kyle! After you pull the trigger and it looks 90% like this hit me up I’m tryna get in there boiiiii we’ll bring it all the way back arahnd I tell yinz what
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