Only thing i would change is shipping out Connor Brown and replacing him with a Marlie and giving the extra million saved to Marner because he will probably end up getting 9.5M.

Toronto fans are in denial if they think Matthews isn't signing the largest NHL deal ever.

If Matthews were to sign an identical ~15% cap contract as McDavid, that puts him at just over 13 million AAV. 12 million wouldn't be entirely out of the question, though there is a decent chance he earns a bigger face $ amount than McDavid.

edit: not 100% sure if the 83M cap has been confirmed yet or not, but Matthews' number is based off of that.

Time will tell & he very well might but I think he'll "settle" for a bit less (maybe a bit more then Tavares)

McDavid got 16.67% of the cap when he signed his deal https://www.capfriendly.com/players/connor-mcdavid which would put Matthews at 13.8 if he got the same percent, but I think Matthews will be around 15% anyways

Marner gets more for sure, likely $9M. Kap will also need to get $3.5M. Matthews at $12M gets it done I think, but maybe give or take $500K. It is highly likely the Leafs need to move Kap, Brown or even possibly Nylander. I would give it a 20% chance they somehow end up with all 3 and the current lineup.

I am anticipating this. Someone suggested a 15% cap hit, which would be just under McDavid money, but a little easier to work with than the McDavid deal was 2 years ago. I guess it all values how much Matthews and Marner value being on a seriously contending team vs an eye popping contract number. I also think that Dubas might be able to get other RFA and UFA on the team that he wants back to take a small one year deal with the idea of Marleau coming off the books.

If need be, he's the easiest to move.

Remember when Leaf fans were in denial thinking Nylander would sign for less than 8 million?

Which is what I did above

Remember when all you guys said there was no way Nylander would sign for less than 8 million? Dubas will get it done. Brown, Zaitsev and Johnsson will be moved before Kap or Nylander.

With this one done....now they will go with: "Matthews will get 13M and Marner 11M......."

I already seen ppl giving Kapanen 5M....on basis of 9 + "50" points seasons....i mean....

in my version Brown is out at TDL : https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/933802

I don't remember that actually, but I'd love to see you pull up where I said that.

No you specifically, but I've been told on here more times than I can count how delusional I was for thinking Nylander would sign with the Leafs. It'll be the same thing until Matthews signs and then when Marner signs and then when Kapanen signs. Then Gardiner will walk and all these same guys who have been so adamant about how terrible Gardiner is will be saying, "See! I told you the Leafs can't keep everyone, you guys are so stupid and screwed." And then I'll say, "You have been calling Gardiner a bag of trash for the past 2 years, what are you even talking about." And then there will be silence.

I didn't say that, I thought he would sing for $7M to $7.5M. That said, the cap hit is very close to $7M. I think many will agree $11.5M to $12.5M for Matthews is realistic. I don't see him getting $13M+ what some people are saying. Marner is blowing it out this season, he will certainly get around $9m give or take $250K. Kap will get $3.5M give or take $250K, I think it's pretty comical some Leaf fans think he is going to sign for $2M or $2.5M. There could be a chance he signs a 1 year bridge for $2.5M until Marleau gets off the books but again unlikely. None of this is unrealistic and I tend to be very close on my estimates which are based on the team and comparable signings.

I think on 3 year deal Kapanen is going to want 3.5M give or take 250k like you said. On a two year deal i still think we could have him for 2 M or 2.5M. I think most of what you said is accurate and will be very close to what everyone signs for.

If I was Kapanen, I'd be telling my agent to look at a 1 year deal. It's possibly the only way he can stay in the fold. Although I think you try to make it work if he won't take less than 3. Anything over 3.5 and I think he'll get offer sheeted or traded. He's a good player but he's more of a product of his linemates than he is a driver of play.

I think he'll ask for either 3-5 years at close to 4 million or over and if he accepts a bridge it'll be a 1 year show me deal.

I don't see him taking $2.5M for anything more then a 1 year prove it deal. His fair value on the open market is $3.5M to $4M on a 3-5 year deal. While the Leafs have the advantage of him as a RFA, that won't translate to that big of a discount. $2.5M on a 1 year deal if the Leafs make it to the ECF or Finals, otherwise he's going to want a $3.5m for 3 to 5 years or Leafs will need to let him walk. If the Leafs win the cup, he will want $4M and at that point the Leafs let him go.

I would be fine with a 1 year show me deal, as long as we keep him on Kadris wing. I wouldn't want to stick him on the left side with Matthews and Nylander. It would inflate his numbers and i think it would price him out of our team. The 1 year deal lets us burn Marleaus last year which gives us some room to give Kap a raise that he has earned and sign Dermott to a nice contract that he will have hopefully earned. im honestly not that down on our Cap situation as most people. Gotta have faith in Dubas and Pridham.

im just gonna post the same reply to you as LoganOllivier lol.

I would be fine with a 1 year show me deal, as long as we keep him on Kadris wing. I wouldn't want to stick him on the left side with Matthews and Nylander. It would inflate his numbers and i think it would price him out of our team. The 1 year deal lets us burn Marleaus last year which gives us some room to give Kap a raise that he has earned and sign Dermott to a nice contract that he will have hopefully earned. Im honestly not that down on our Cap situation as most people. Gotta have faith in Dubas and Pridham.

Its hard to argue against any of that. Well put sir.