Looking Ahead To The Playoffs

The Oilers are demonstrably better when they run

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
McLeod - Draisaitl - Foegele

I don't get the temptation to run McDavid and Draisaitl together unless it's the last shift of the period or some such specific situation.

The fact that Draisaitl can't seem to find lasting chemistry with anyone other than McDavid plays a huge role into whether or not they keep him happy enough to re-sign. McDavid/Draisaitl re-signing is as important, if not more important, than whether or not they win a cup this year. Commiting to playing Draisaitl on LW next to McDavid for the next however many years will make them both happy. They think and play on a level that most ppl just can't keep up with. EDM has depth at center and there's no reason 29/97/18 can't be the 1st line for the next 4+ years! If you base everything on statistics and think RNH is a better winger for McDavid than I wouldn't trust your judgement!

I didn't say that. But the team doesn't do as well when they load up the first line, and I can demonstrate that using numbers.

I think winning will make them happiest. That's the goal. They can always play together on the PP.

1st off, McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele are a small sample size to compare to RNH-McDavid-Hyman which have the most played time together by a mile, 2nd is Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman!

If you haven't paid attention over the past few years, Draisaitl isn't happy. He's getting the **** end of the stick 5 on 5 because they feel they have to split 29/97. I get the draw of running them down the middle but sometimes you need to let the big dogs eat and let the rest get the scraps. EDM doesn't have a supporting cast that has enough chemistry to make the top 6 solid with 97/29 split up. It's always in a blender and Draisaitl always gets less while guys like RNH/Hyman/Kane/Etc. get more. EDM has center depth, they need to utilize that. This lineup commits to Draisaitl & McDavid. Hopefully they commit in return!

Yeah, reality is a different story. Here are the numbers over the past 3 seasons (since you're worried about sample size).

Your favorite scenario:
McDavid + Draisaitl: 4.04 GF/60 - 2.83 GA/60 = +1.21
Nugent-Hopkins (w/o 97 or 29): 2.66 GF/60 - 2.56 GA/60 = +0.10
Oilers w/o 97, 29 or 93: 1.90 GF/60 - 2.20 GA/60 = -0.30
Total: +1.01 goals per sixty minutes.

The actual best scenario:
Nuge + McDavid + Hyman: 4.63 GF/60 - 2.98 GA/60 = +1.65
Draisaitl + Foegele (no 97): 4.07 GF/60 - 2.88 GA/60 = +1.19
Oilers without any of the above: 1.85 GF/60 - 1.79 GA/60 = +0.06
Total: +2.90 goals per sixty minutes.

The Oilers are far better off splitting their top-6 into McDavid+Hyman and Draisaitl+Foegele pairs as this scenario is nearly 3X more effective than pairing McDavid with Draisaitl.

Winning makes everyone happy.