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BeterChiarelli

Ban Price trades
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Forum: Armchair-GM2 hours ago
Thread: The Perfect Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>I think an extension could make him rethink things. His value contractually likely will never be higher after these past two years and striking now removes a ton of uncertainty / risk of ending up in a bad situation comparatively plus being separated from his kids at any time

That said, I believe part of the equation is a direct flight for his family from Sweden. He’s very family oriented and probably considers that in his no trade list</div></div>

Without sounding like a pessimist, the last time Edmonton threw a bag at a goaltender, they punted him to the AHL and are very likely to burn six years of dead cap space on him. The recent unreliability of Skinner is likewise going to have Edmonton (at least as far as I've seen them operate over the last two decades) being very <em>untrustworthy</em> of any netminder looking for term or a high AAV. Granted, this is about as backwards of an approach as they could muster and they should be looking for a bonafide guy for the next half decade or so.

Ullmark is entering the twilight of his career wanting all of one last good payday, a viable shot at a Stanley Cup, and, as you've supplied, the means to stay relatively close to his family. If we're constraining any possible landing spots for him to clubs in-line with those criteria, then his best options next year are Carolina, Los Angeles, and Toronto, as all three are in need of premium goaltending. I'd keep Chicago as a dark horse in case management actually stumbles into a competent core around Bedard.

I don't think Edmonton ever hits his list of places to play for.
Forum: Armchair-GM3 hours ago
Thread: The Perfect Offseason
Winnipeg likely finds better suitors for Ehlers that doesn't involve them retaining. I think the offer of a standalone first round pick is likewise a bit light. I'd imagine that come the deadline, the ask for Ehlers is somewhere in the neighbourhood of a first, a fourth, and a B-prospect.

Moving Nurse is going to be much harder than that due to his NMC. I think Utah would accept - and likely offer more - but I don't see Darnell wanting to play for a team who's status as even a playoff team is questionable. The only two teams I could see Nurse waiving for today are Detroit and Toronto: both are close to home and are in the playoff picture. Maybe Los Angeles if he's after a complete lifestyle change?

Ullmark has been very public about Edmonton being on his NTC. Kane's reputation makes moving him very difficult.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 16 at 11:36 a.m.
Thread: islanders POSSIBLE trade targets from every team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fail4Nail</b></div><div>I would do either, preferably the Wahlstrom one.</div></div>

The only reason I wouldn't is strictly because I'd want the sure thing. Pageau gives McLeod the opportunity to remain on Draisaitl's left flank permanently and finds Edmonton their best RHC since Strome/Letestu. Having that #3C locked down with a cheap solution at #2LW is a wonderful thing to have.

Wahlstrom would come in as a cheap bottom-six winger, already competing with (assuming they stick around) Brown, Lavoie, Perry, and likely a free agent option to contend for middle-six work. Maybe he does well up the lineup? But it comes at the cost of Carrick et al being the best option we have for a RHC and likely means that both top-six wings alongside Draisaitl are in need of names to play those roles. The free agent pool this year is poor.

Ultimately the draft pick in return with Wahlstrom isn't doing a lot for me either. Having a healthy prospect pool is a good thing yes, but again, it's Mission Stanley until Connor and Leon aren't Oilers any longer.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 15 at 10:54 a.m.
Forum: Site DiscussionMar. 27 at 9:29 a.m.
Thread: H & H Ads
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>I know CF owners have to create revenue, but geez how much many CF followers buy H &amp; H products? The ads interfere with the comments section. I appreciate busty women as much as anyone, but geez get this ad off the site, in its current format.</div></div>

I would recommend that you clear your cache and browser history: the ads generated on this site are done so algortihmically based on your own search history and browsing habits.

If you're using Google Chrome as your browser, you can change your ad settings to remove any intensive or misleading ads by doing the following:

1. Open Chrome and click the veritcal triple dot button on the top right.
2. Select "More" then "Settings" and then "Privacy and Security".
3. Click "Site Settings" then "Additional Content Settings" and then "Intrusive Ads"
4. You can then toggle the settings to your preferences.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20 at 11:28 a.m.
Thread: Honest Thoughts
Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.

Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.

Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.

If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22 at 5:02 p.m.
Thread: Rip Away
I don't get the point of moving Kaprizov unless it's for known talent, not prospects. One would hope that there would be an endgame to put an end to Minnesota being a mediocre team instead of just shuffling deck chairs on the titanic.

I also can't see his next deal being some bank-breaker: a tax-equivalent deal to Nylander (probably his uppermost comparable) is an AAV of $10.05M. A cap-percentage equivalent deal to Tkachuk is a $10.1M AAV. The raise he's going to be owed is small and if there's ever a playertype you DO want to overpay, it's the high-end skill that isn't guaranteed to be recreated beyond the aggregate of multiple pieces returned. For the record I don't think either combination of Cooley/Crouse or Cooley/Keller is outproducing prime Kaprizov and there's no guarantee that the returned first is an NHL player.

Minny has a lot of good quality pieces and Kaprizov is a hell of a name to be able to build around. The more straightforward path is always going to be to build around his talents instead of guessing on futures. Guerin's just unfortunately building an old-boys club instead of a competitive hockey team. Maybe that changes in the near future once the dead cap space dissipates?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22 at 1:15 p.m.
Thread: Deadline targets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>smokewiseganja</b></div><div>Dude there’s a massive difference in their ability to defense lol</div></div>

Statistically, there's little difference. The numbers do favour Carrier ever so slightly and he's getting more goaltender support from Saros than Ceci is from Skinner, but it's not a night-and-day comparison.

I would like Edmonton to acquire Carrier. I think if Holland could make the cap work that keeping Ceci as the #3RD would be a very prudent move. I'm not interested in hedging two quality assets to make that minor of an upgrade though. Give Nashville a first instead: it's very likely that once Desharnais walks and Kemp's current deal expires, Wanner is going to have every chance to be the #3RD for Edmonton. There's still going to be a massive need for cheap quality RFA deals once we hit 2025-26.

It's fine if you're just tired of watching Ceci play but you don't need to make things up.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21 at 6:44 p.m.
Thread: Thank you dougbrady214
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>athrin</b></div><div>Hakanpää, Jani has no value for OTT he will be gone July 1st, he is there for stars cap reason only, thus ott would need a asset to take him</div></div>

This is a poor take that far too many people adopt.

Using prorated values, Ottawa is sending more than $1.59M in actual cap back to Dallas. They only have LTIR room for up to $1.52M. The prorated value of just Lundkvist returning is $207k: the Stars don't have the necessary cap space to facilitate this trade without a UFA being returned in this deal or shed by other means. Hakanpaa is only owed a prorated $336k: if you believe Ottawa needs anything of value to be convinced to take on less than half a million dollars in owed money you're out to lunch. Seeing those numbers now, the Stars don't actually have enough cap space to make this deal work unless Ottawa takes back more or they find a way to scrape another $473k.

If the piece returned has term, then yes, the acquiring team should be owed an asset. On an expiring deal needed to facilitate the deal? Piss off.
Forum: NHLFeb. 21 at 5:57 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>That's fair opinion, but Matthews seems to be a near lock for the Rocket trophy, so does that mean he's hoping that McDavid goes nuclear to have any chance at the Hart? Or is he hoping Toronto comes out of nowhere are wins the division with him being the reason?

What's the assessment? Most valuable player? Than that depends who you ask... Most valuable player to his own team? How much worse is team x without player y?

I think this is what makes the Hart trophy race so interesting this year... Is Mackinnon a franchise player? 100%! But does he impact Colorado more then Matthews would with Toronto?

Then you have all other factors too... Defensive play, line mates, Goals vs Assists, PP vs EV points, etc</div></div>

Matthews' biggest hang-up to being a lock for the Hart is the whole "who's turn is it" debate that the NHL Writers Association have to (stupidly) factor in to every debate. Of the four names in question, MacKinnon is the only one who hasn't won it yet.

We know the Rocket is essentially locked up: Matthews is going to be taking home hardware. Having thought about it a bit more, I think Nate only wins the Hart outright now if he also wins the scoring race and that the PHWA would never vote for Kucherov to win the Hart after his All-Star appearance. I'm also not trying to account for the standings because I think the PHWA doing so is also a boneheaded move but will do so below. Thus I think the breakdown is as such:

1. If MacKinnon wins the Art Ross, he also wins the Hart, circumspect of just being a dominant player this season.
2. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross and Tampa Bay is in a divisional playoff spot, then I think it's a 50-50 between MacKinnon and Matthews.
3. If Kucherov wins the Art Ross and Tampa Bay is in a wildcard spot, I think the field of MacKinnon, Matthews, and McDavid is fair game strictly because the PHWA is going to have a vendetta against Kucherov. If there is no vendetta, then Kucherov should be winning the Hart in this case.
4. If McDavid wins the Art Ross and Toronto is in a divisional playoff spot, McDavid wins the Hart with factors of a torrid late pace and the diminished factor of Matthews' importance to the Leafs' success.
5. If McDavid wins the Art Ross and Toronto is in a wildcard spot, then I think it's a 50-50 between Matthews and McDavid.
6. All points are moot if Matthews scores 76 or more goals to tie/break the "modern" mark set by Mogilny and Selanne, as the Hart sort of has to go his way at that point.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: How we feeling about this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>I assume Foeg's is re-signing at 2.5M, may be wishful but he seems to really enjoy being here.
It's a different idea going into deadline, maybe a bit of an overpay but refreshing from all the Guentz trade's I've been seeing.</div></div>

$2.5M seems highly unrealistic: you'd be asking the player to take a pay cut when the cap is about to take its biggest jump in recent memory. Likewise, Foegele has a back-loaded deal and is going to want to stay at or above that $3.25M mark he's currently at for this season. That's just human nature.

I'm expecting him to sign somewhere between the cap percentages of Lustorainen and Vatrano. That's going to see him earning anywhere between $3.15M to $3.85M on an $87.7M salary cap, probably on a three year deal. It feels rich for a 15G/20A player but he's always had strong possession metrics, can skate, and has picked up some PK utility in Edmonton. He's an ideal third-line forward for a team that can afford him.