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BeterChiarelli

LIVIN ON A PRAYER
Member Since
Oct. 29, 2017
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 21 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread: How we feeling about this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PurpleHippo</b></div><div>I assume Foeg's is re-signing at 2.5M, may be wishful but he seems to really enjoy being here.
It's a different idea going into deadline, maybe a bit of an overpay but refreshing from all the Guentz trade's I've been seeing.</div></div>

$2.5M seems highly unrealistic: you'd be asking the player to take a pay cut when the cap is about to take its biggest jump in recent memory. Likewise, Foegele has a back-loaded deal and is going to want to stay at or above that $3.25M mark he's currently at for this season. That's just human nature.

I'm expecting him to sign somewhere between the cap percentages of Lustorainen and Vatrano. That's going to see him earning anywhere between $3.15M to $3.85M on an $87.7M salary cap, probably on a three year deal. It feels rich for a 15G/20A player but he's always had strong possession metrics, can skate, and has picked up some PK utility in Edmonton. He's an ideal third-line forward for a team that can afford him.
Forum: NHLFeb. 20 at 10:56 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>At this point, we all have a pretty good idea who's going to be in the conversation for the Hart and it's that time of year again... So here's my hart list (top 10) if I could vote (Feel free to quote this post and make your own!)

1. Auston Matthews
2. Nathan Mackinnon
3. Nikita Kucherov
4. Cale Makar
5. Quinn Hughes
6. Connor McDavid
7. David Pastrnak
8. Sam Reinhart
9. Thacher Demko
10. Artemi Panarin</div></div>

The league has famously kind of used other rewards to justify where the Hart goes. If Kucherov gets the Art Ross and Matthews the Rocket, then MacKinnon is likely getting the Hart. If Mackinnon wins the scoring race then it'll be Kucherov that gets league MVP. The Selke nominations kind of follow this pattern too (early congrats to Barkov now that Bergeron is no more)

If McDavid (and I think he could legitimately cruise at 2.00ppg for the rest of the season) wins the scoring title then I think Matthews gets the MVP apropos of Colorado was making the playoffs anyways and Kucherov didn't buy himself any voter favour with his half-assed All-Star appearance.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20 at 1:58 p.m.
Thread: How we feeling about this
I actually really like the Pittsburgh trade, I just don't think San Jose is going to be the team that does the retaining. They only have one retention slot until 2025-26. One figures that slot is reserved for two years of one-year rentals or Couture.

Fleury isn't an upgrade on Pickard: the only thing he's bringing is name brand recognition. Nedeljkovic is the only free agent netminder not currently on a playoff-bound team that constitutes an upgrade. Kahkonen, Reimer, Fleury, and Lankinen are all statistical downgrades with games played being the only real argument for acquiring them. Three of those names have as much playoff experience in the last four years as Pickard does. Fleury's last two years of work should dissuade Edmonton from making that purchase.

Realistically, the near $1.5M in cap space that this Fleury trade commits in net over Pickard is absolutely going to be better off used on the blueline unless it's bringing back Ned. I don't feel great about Campbell being the #3 but his play as of late in the AHL and his playoff resume thinks it could be a survivable ordeal so long as the group in front of him is running at or above 100%. One would hope Rodrigue gets some NHL exposure before the season is out in case there's continued wobble to Jack's game.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20 at 1:38 p.m.
Thread: dreaming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JuanDamienNebraska</b></div><div>I was just trying to work within the constraints of OP’s hypothetical</div></div>

No you weren't.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JuanDamienNebraska</b></div><div>If EDM were truly desperate for a very solid 2nd goalie then I’d say the trade makes sense. However, Pickard has exceeded expectations backing up Skinner. In a vacuum, the value is pretty fair, but EDM just doesn’t <em>need</em> to make the move. They’re better off keeping the RFA McLeod unless Pickard completely falls off in the coming weeks.

I’m sure DAL would want to use the cap space gained in the Guentzel trade toward a bigger piece at RD, such as Tanev. Therefore, including Ruhwedel in that trade really wouldn’t be necessary.</div></div>

Points like "the trade makes sense" and "don't do this unless Pickard completely falls off" do not align with agreeing to my points. This isn't one of those "team doesn't necessarily need to make this move but could under specific scenario" sorts of trades. This is an outright <em>fleecing</em> of what should be a permanent fixture of Edmonton's roster into the 2030s. It's a fundamentally bad trade and your value assessment is woefully off if you're agreeing that this is a fair value trade for Edmonton.

If the Oilers were in Tampa Bay territory and trying to cap the finishing touches of a long stretch of success (a final hurrah) then maybe, just maybe I could get down with the premise if I squinted hard enough and looked at it from a crooked angle. But we're not in that scenario and Edmonton hasn't accomplished anything since 2006. Sustained success can justify and cover up for foolish trades. A lack of success only magnifies their negative impact.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20 at 1:14 p.m.
Thread: dreaming
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JuanDamienNebraska</b></div><div>If EDM were truly desperate for a very solid 2nd goalie then I’d say the trade makes sense. However, Pickard has exceeded expectations backing up Skinner. In a vacuum, the value is pretty fair, but EDM just doesn’t <em>need</em> to make the move. They’re better off keeping the RFA McLeod unless Pickard completely falls off in the coming weeks.

I’m sure DAL would want to use the cap space gained in the Guentzel trade toward a bigger piece at RD, such as Tanev. Therefore, including Ruhwedel in that trade really wouldn’t be necessary.</div></div>

Even if we assume the wheels fall off the Pickard wagon, why is the philosophy here that moving McLeod is Edmonton's sole answer for a goaltender? This is a roster player with term and club control and the Oilers are going to be strapped for value contracts over the next two seasons. McLeod is a strong #3C and plays exceptionally well on Draisaitl's wing: where else is Edmonton finding THAT specific thing for $2.1M?

I mean no point of exaggeration here but I would rather the Oilers coughed up a first-round pick for a rental goaltender than make a McLeod/Eller+Ned swap. Eller is at best in the twilight of his career and has barely out-produced McLeod in 39 more games played (it's a 7 point difference). The sum of the loss of the roster certainty for what could be the remainder of the Draisaitl-McDavid Oilers and drop-off in player quality between Eller and McLeod far outweighs whatever gains are had by having Nedeljkovic over Pickard.

The trade as presented is virtually nonsensical.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 19 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread: Kings perspective
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Matt Roy may indeed go somewhere at the trade deadline, but I highly doubt that it will be Toronto.</div></div>

If not Toronto, then who?

By my eye, the Kings are in theory piggybacking off of the Tanev trade talks if they're legitimately kicking the tires on moving Roy. The teams I see attempting to acquire Tanev the most on these boards are (in no particular order) Dallas, Edmonton, and Toronto. One of those teams is an immediate Pacific division rival (potential 1st or 2nd round matchup), one is (as of right now) a 50% chance to be the Kings' third round opponent God forbid they make it past two of Vancouver/Edmonton/Vegas.

It would seem - by my eye at least - that if these are the three highest bidders for Tanev and Roy, it would serve the Kings well to get him out to The Center of the Universe as fast as possible, even if (assuming the mission is to move Roy at all costs) you're only getting 80% value from Toronto. Is the gap in value worth one of Edmonton or Dallas trouncing the Kings?

Granted, the option of "do not trade Matt Roy" is still on the table but I can't imagine a deal of 1st, 4th, and a lesser prospect (Villeneuve?) being completely balked at.
Forum: NHLFeb. 18 at 9:19 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #3: After Further Review...
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>What on Earth are you two looking at? He was tapping his post. He didn't even know the player was behind him. The player skated toward him. And Binnington immediately went to check on him/apologize for the accident.

The motivated perception around here is surreal.</div></div>

This is the same league that awards power plays to teams that accidentally clip their own teammates with their own sticks, what are you looking for here?

This is also the same league that penalizes the follow-through of a shot as high sticking. The league has been pretty consistent with the whole "you must be in control of your stick at all times" shtick. Would be a lot easier to see in the replay if those tinted glasses of yours weren't casting everything in a shade of Blues.

Compared to the average working man, the league made Binnington fork over the equivalent of $40. Again, mountain of a molehill.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 17 at 3:12 p.m.
Thread: Edmonton Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Are you sure that the bonus doesn't travel with the player?

Because you'll note that it doesn't show up on the recap above.</div></div>

The AGM functionality regarding bonuses is highly oversimplified. Edmonton <em>paid</em> Brown's bonus in mid-November and the cap hit for said bonus won't apply to Edmonton's cap hit until next season. I did a <a href="https://premium.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/794645" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">deeper dive</a> here if you want more details.

Logically you'd see teams up against the cap or those inundated with bonuses (the late 2010's Rangers come to mind) trying to circumvent those overages with trades. This hasn't been the case. Bonuses only move with players if they haven't been reached yet. Only Edmonton will have to navigate that $3.225M nightmare.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 17 at 3:09 p.m.
Thread: 3 way trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BadaBing</b></div><div>Flames paid a 1st rd to take Monahan's contract. This trade is worth about $6M in Cap. A 2nd and a 4th is a bargain. Penguins get 3x 1st. rounders, a heavy price for Guentzel. Penguins get 3 pieces for a rebuild</div></div>

Except come the deadline neither of those players are owed their full-fat cap hits for the season. Foegele is owed approximately $616k and should Montreal be doing the actual 50% retention on Guentzel, another $672k for that. The reality of the dollars owed is (with a lot of rounding in your favour) $1.3M.

Using Monahan's contract as a comparable (seeing that's your preference), that sort of retention should only cost about 20% of the first round pick that Calgary paid Montreal. Most draft pick values would suggest that for the Flames' pick currently being ninth overall, Edmonton would owe Montreal a late second. OP actually overpaid here.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27 at 11:03 p.m.
Thread: A Few Possibilities 2024 TDL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sprak</b></div><div>Then the caps go to the other teams listed in the description of the trade for a similar return</div></div>

I too will eat my own feces if Washington is able to con another franchise into giving them a first round pick for <em>just</em> Dowd. No retention? No auxiliary pieces? An unretained Dowd is fetching a second round pick, maybe a throwaway prospect could be included, but nothing more. The market for #4C's usually hovers around a 4th to 5th round pick: double that value and you can account for Dowd's term.

Consider the types of players that get moved for first round picks, the teams willing to part with their draft capital, and what their true wants and needs are. There isn't a team in the league set enough to spend a first round pick on a #4C. Madness.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27 at 2:19 p.m.
Thread: If Edm doesnt achieve playoff success
The Oilers' depth issues are vastly overblown.

They're running three quality forward lines, almost every line and pairing has been winning the shots battle since Knoblauch was hired, and the Oilers have outscored opposing teams 58 to 23 (more than a two-to-one margin) over their last 15 consecutive wins. That's not something a team with depth issues can do. McDavid only has 8 of those goals, Draisaitl has 9, and Hyman has 11. Less than half of their goals during this streak have come from their "big three".

The Oilers, at least in terms of the skaters, are at a point of luxury. They can add a top-six forward if they want to, but no longer need to. They can upgrade on Ceci but there isn't a vast list of names that constitute as known upgrades. The only piece Edmonton must acquire today is a goaltender they can tandem with Skinner strictly to lighten his load, not because they need an upgrade to Skinner.

There are pieces Edmonton would like to acquire from Columbus sure, but those are likely pieces the Blue Jackets have no intention of moving (Marchenko, Chinakov, and Severson intrigue me). Probably not a fit for either team here.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25 at 6:11 p.m.
Thread: ALL IN FOR PARAYKO
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mm1010</b></div><div>if you look at his buy out is would regularly be just over 2 Million
since he had high base salary on the front end and lower on the back in those years his cap hit is 3.7M for the last 3 years of his deal.... so 1.7M more expensive to buy him out</div></div>

Two things:

1. You're assuming the buyout happens at the end of this season? The math looks totally different than what you present: it's about $550k for two years, $2.2M for a season, $3.7M as you identify from 2027 through 2030, then drops to about $2.05M for six years. I get the point that you're making (more expensive versus conventional contract) but the uber-expensive buyouts that you're referring to were the back-diving deals like what Crosby, Ovechkin, Keith, and Weber were signed to many moons ago. <a href="/users/AC14" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AC14</a> sets up a scenario where it's likely to be only the +35 years that the buyout focuses on. I believe that sets up June 2028 as the timeframe to look at this buyout from.

2. The four years of Parayko's buyout in 2028 onward progress as:

2028-29: $3.3M
2029-30: $3.3M
2030-31: $1.6M
2031-32: $1.6M

As long as the buyout happens after 2026, there's no fluctuation to the cap hit Parayko's buyout holds.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25 at 6:03 p.m.
Thread: No Firsts For Rentals
<a href="/users/CD282" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@CD282</a>

Wanted to pick your brain on this because you understand the numbers better than I do. Forgive the scaling on the image sizes.

<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEtnRtka0AEEzkZ?format=jpg&amp;name=4096x4096" alt="GEtnRtka0AEEzkZ?format=jpg&amp;name=4096x4096">
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEtndmqa0AIVlX0?format=jpg&amp;name=4096x4096" alt="GEtndmqa0AIVlX0?format=jpg&amp;name=4096x4096">

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLGoldenBoy</b></div><div>Dante Fabbro is much stronger at defending zone entries and moving the puck. Those are both ideal for playing with Darnel Nurse. He also has good results against elite competition.</div></div>

Is the usage the only real concern here? The TOI? I personally like Fabbro's DFF% (PuckIQ) against all three flavours of competition that WoodGuy recognizes on his site. Perhaps a bit pie-in-the-sky to expect him to come in to top minutes or for Coffey to transform him into what, at least visually, others keep interpreting these numbers to mean.