SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

fangm

Member Since
Jun. 2, 2021
Forum Posts
2073
Posts per Day
1.9
Forum: Armchair-GM12 hours ago
Thread: My Approach
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Agree with much you say. I was appalled by the shameless news conference Pelley, Shanahan, and Trevling hosted. Thought it was real cheap shots to blame the players and coaching. Here is Shanahan sitting there and he had as much say as anyone in the coaching hiring, GM hirings and player personnel as anyone on the Leafs in the past ten years. All that for one playoff round win. Plus the Leafs have traded away so many good draft picks in the 2024, 25 and 26 drafts.
Disagree with you on giving Trevling a three year "show me" to win the Cup.. GMs can screw up a team for ten years if they make bad decisions.. Ferguson, Burke, Nonis and somewhat Dubas are proof. I would have Trevling on a much shorter lease. Hey I hope he stays for 15 years because he's doing a great job.</div></div>

They can give him three years and not let him trade any picks past 2027 or any top prospects (Cowan, Minten, Knies). That way the futures are there no matter what.

But generally we are on the same page. Sucks to see that ownership is screwing this team in the middle of its window.

The team can't just commit to a new voice because they needed to hire Pelley to deal with infighting on the Board and the mess the Raptors and TFC are in.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 hours ago
Thread: Flip Side
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>I think you are jumping to a very fast conclusion on Hall there. Even Mantha got more than just a 2nd. If Hall comes back and puts up 50 points by the TDL he will very likely get a 1st.

Also having the option of being a 3rd party retention or even moving someone else holds value too. This trade uses up both of Chicago's retention slots on July 2nd. Meaning they have zero options.

The Hawks aren't a poverty team, they can afford to spend money, and will likely be at least somewhat active in free agency</div></div>

That's fair. I just don't see any scenario where this isn't the max value they get for those retention slots. What will they get for being a 3rd party? A 4th/5th/6th? Two 4th isn't equivalent to a 2nd.

Not saying it isn't possible for Hall to put up 50 points before the next deadline but his point production last season was pretty much inline with Zucker who went for a 6th at the deadline, even with the name value he isn't fetching what Mantha got. Lots of Mantha's value comes from his size and ability to play up and down the lineup, Hall can only play in an offensive role. He had 36 points two years ago and was on pace for 33 last season. He isn't a 70+ point guy anymore. And either way I don't think Chicago will want to move him, like Foligno, he has more value being in the locker room and helping out the young guys than the mid round pick he might return.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 hours ago
Thread: Flip Side
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>It's not 10M+ in salary as both players have big signing bonuses on July 1st. You are right though that there is zero chance Chicago does that for only a 2nd as it's a waste of their own retention slots, when they have an expiring Taylor Hall too.

LA doesn't have the cap space for a deal like that though and they aren't going to make Clarke available.

Disagree that Toronto is the only team that would retain on Marner though. Assuming a trade happens after July 1st I think Anaheim or Calgary for example would retain on him ina. 3 way deal</div></div>

<a href="/users/Hckeydude123" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Hckeydude123</a> I think you don't understand how contracts or retention works.

<a href="/users/Ledge_And_Dairy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Ledge_And_Dairy</a> hard to judge if the second is enough or too much. When comparing real money paid out to compensation this would be by a significant margin the biggest overpay. Depending on the models you look at an early 2nd is worth as much as $4M (as low as $2.5M) and a late second I worth as much as $2M (as low as $1.5M). So given Chicago will only pay $775k they are getting a second at 50-80% off to accommodate the high cap hits. If we go by this season (and.look at their recent spending patterns) the team will have loads of cap space and hasn't even tried to optimize it under Davidson.

They also haven't shown much interest in trading players since they got Bedard. Even at 50% retained Hall would likely fetch a 2nd which they are getting anyways in this deal not to mention that Hall's salary is $5.25M this year so if they trade him 75% of the way through the season he will still be owed over $1M and Chicago will lose Hall + pay $500k+ for that same 2nd round pick.

Excluding anyone who didn't finish the season in the NHL, Chicago has 10 forwards, 4 defenseman and 2 goalies under contract with $33M in cap space for next year. Adding a 2nd for $775k in cash and $10.5M in cap space is a great move for them. They will likely be struggling to hit the cap floor anyways.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri. at 5:15 p.m.
Thread: Based on Presser
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FoxYou727</b></div><div>Thank you, so from what I am hearing they'll just run it back maybe try and trade Mitch and choke in the playoffs again</div></div>

From the sounds of it they still believe in the "core philosophy" that you need high end skill but they feel they need "different type" of skill. I genuinely read this as them thinking of something like Marner for Reinhart or Stamkos type of swap in the lineup. Like let's dump Marner and use his cap to sign a different type of forward. It really didn't read as a major Forward for D trade.

Also I got a real feeling that JT is going. I know he won't want to waive but it sounded like they were done with him. They made some comment about how when you look at the core 4 and decide how to move forward you need to consider "where they are in their careers and their potentials to improve moving forward". That sounded like them saying that the #1 priority if we break up the Core 4 is moving JT. They also mentioned that a big change might not happen this summer but will definitely take place before the playoffs which sounded again like JT, he's the only one you could reasonable move as a deadline rental.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsThu. at 10:45 a.m.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsWed. at 8:27 p.m.
Thread: Leafs 2024 2025 Offseason Discussion Part 1: Kill or Be Killed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rajvinder</b></div><div>Just throwing it out there that a few "insiders" I've spoken to have mentioned that they believe Mark Hunter is the leading GM candidate for both Edmonton (Holland is retiring) and Columbus.

Apparently he has recently been telling both teams that Marner would be a part of his strategy and given Marner's NMC that he feels he could get him cheap.

Pretty well known that Hunter put his job on the line to draft Mitch in Toronto and remains really close to Mitch and his family.

One person went as far as to say that the best case for Toronto might be if he goes to Columbus and they draft Sam Dickinson (London Knight) in which case Jirick and/or Mateychuck could become available in a Marner trade.

Also has someone say that they wouldn't be surprised if Hunter and Mitch worked together to hardball the Leafs including forcing Cowan into any Marner deal.</div></div>

This would be really scary.

I also don't put it past Marner to do something like this and only waive if certain conditions are met.
Forum: Armchair-GMWed. at 12:01 a.m.
Thread: Seravalli Insights
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>Yeah, a lot of people are underrating the benefit of the Leafs taking back salary in a Marner trade, and suggesting a 3rd team or the Leafs retain on him. I could see them land both a middle/top 6 F and a top 4 D-man and a 1st (2025 or later-moving up the draft is a waste of Marner's value) with one of the players being on an expiring deal/pending RFA and the other with term and possibly another pick or prospect. In the case of UTAH, they have a ton of cap space and a lot of pending RFAs, so it could be something like Hayton+Durzi+2025 1st+a prospect and then UTAH might go out and acquire Montour's signing rights or maybe they deal someone else instead of Durzi.

That being said all signs point to Marner holding the Leafs hostage. The best course of action is to try to sign him for ~11.5M, but if he doesn't want to leave anything on the table then see if he's willing to waive. I think the Leafs best bet is to try trading him to Vegas for Theodore + Karlsson + maybe some futures.</div></div>

Haven't heard anyone else mention it but you could be right about a 3rd team. He makes league min this year after his signing bonus is paid so if the deal happens after July 1st then you could get someone like Chicago to retain $5.5M for a 3rd (only ~$387,500k in real money) and suddenly even if its a one year rental that is really attractive. Could also be really attractive to someone like Minnesota who have $14M in read cap next year but then just $1.6M after that so they can get him cheap next year then afford his full salary afterwards. Likely a few others teams in a similar position with a veteran or bad contract expiring who can only take $2.5M or $5.5M next year but can afford the full $11.5-$12M the year after.
Forum: Toronto Maple LeafsTue. at 2:01 p.m.
Thread: Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 7 - Shambles
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rajvinder</b></div><div>I know people here doubt "insider takes" so feel free.to ignore if you want.

Been chatting with a few friends who work for the Leafs/MLSE.

From what I'm hearing they are considering four options:

1. Leave Shanny in charge and give him 2 seasons to see out his vision. They wouldn't let him trade any prospects of picks from the 2027 draft (or later). Idea is that he can run it back do whatever he feels will work and in 2 years if it's failing Matthews/Nylander/Marner are still young enough that their contracts can be moved and the team can tear it down.

2. Fire Shanny and leave Tre with the GM title but he and Pelley will split the President's job. Direction here would largely be a retool, moving out a few guys and try to win.

3. Blow it all up. There have been discussions about just a complete blow up including trading Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Rielly/Tavares. There are some people concerned that after Shanahan put his "team" in place he prioritized the people over the organization and that culture can't be changed without them all gone. This would essentially be what happened when Shanahan first came, wipe out the front office and start again.

4. Observation year. Pelley has only been on the job for 1.5 months. There is a thought that he might just let everything stay the same. Observe for a year then make decisions next year. This would mean no major moves without his approval, no big contracts, etc. but team stays the course for the most part unless he approves a big trade/UFA deal.

Seems like it's really all up in the air.</div></div>

I was pretty shocked when Ray Ferraro said that blowing it all up was something he heard they were considering. You are the second person with some insider knowledge to say that. CJ also alluded to it, how the team had a poor attitude, had been taught the media was out to get them, etc. and that was top down and would need major changes to fix. Even them I'm not sure it makes sense to blow it all up now, I'd rather even bring back Burke or someone who would be happy having 2-3 years to just try and make this team (build around Matthews) work before we blow it up.