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F50marco
Member Since
May 29, 2015
Favourite Team
Montreal Canadiens
Forum Posts
19635
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6.0
POSTS
THREADS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 hours ago
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I think putting Guhle on table is far easier path to that pick.</div></div>
Lol I mean Im going off your trade above and tweaking from there. Trying to stick to essentially a tradeup/down scenario. Guhle wasn't part of it and don't think the Habs would have any interest in it either.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
16 hours ago
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>I don't think the pick will be moved for 5 pieces...even if sum-of-the-parts added up....they are rarely actually add up with finite number of roster spots.</div></div>
Sure. I mean remove / add as you please. I added all the players that might be of interest based on the current and prior discussions we've had. Seems like Bastian isn't part of your future plans, maybe you can throw him in our way if it helps. Plus Struble isn't waiver eligible yet so he can be sent down so it could be a net addition of only 1 player if its Evans+Andy for Bastian for example.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
19 hours ago
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>By adding Guhle or #5 perhaps.
The irony now with Anderson is that we could potentially use a size/speed guy now that Wood and McLeod are gone. (I always viewed Anderson as righty Miles Wood). It seems to be a missing element in our bottom-six. But at $5.5m we don’t have the space to put that in lineup.</div></div>
I mean i was only kidding but if there is a deal to be made there, MTL should be all over that.
Since we're on it, would a deal of Evans, Struble, Anderson 50%, WPG 1st and Col 2nd be enough for the 10ov in your opinion?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 3:41 p.m.
Thread:
Jarvis
Why would the Canes move Jarvis? He's part of the solution. Far from the problem.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 3:38 p.m.
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>The idea would be to trade back in 2024 and instead of adding a player or pick this year, we add a future pick or two that could be ammo at 2025 deadline or 2025 off-season. Maybe that ends up being later of two picks…or some conditional thing.
Many of the trade offers for #10 that we have seen on here can return a mid-teens puck along with 2nd, sometimes more. So dropping down to mid-twenties should probably return a 17-32 pick next year. And another piece.</div></div>
Yep I could see something working (If It were me). The real question is how do we squeeze Josh Anderson in there? :awesome
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:56 p.m.
Thread:
Forward group stays with a couple changes on the blue line
SJ should be ALL over that. They're likely not going to get a better RHD for the foreseeable future anyways.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:53 p.m.
Thread:
The Athletic recommended Markstrom trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shaun80</b></div><div>The trade was proposed back in February, Markstrom had just stolen games against the Islanders and Devils
The trade was proposed back in February, Markstrom had just stolen back to back games for the Flames then lost a goaltending duel 1-0 vs the rangers (score was 2-0 but one was a empty netter). At the same time the Kings were falling in the standings because of poor goaltending. A fan made up the teade in his Flames Mailbag segment, MacKenzie added 3 million in retention to it. Obviously the trade makes no sense today, but it was some what realistic when it was proposed.</div></div>
Yeah I didn't know the whole back story here. Was just commenting as if it were something he just proposed or something.
Either way, there wasn't a point this entire year that this trade makes sense though so timing doesn't change a whole lot. Its not that Markstrom isn't an option, he absolutely is, but the value isn't anything that holds. Clarke+ would bring back a top goalie in his prime. Not a 34 year old.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:38 p.m.
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Top-10 protected…bounces to 2026 unprotected.
Top-5 protected…bounces to CGY pick
I an sure there is solution.
(Or just send Guhle for the #10)</div></div>
Yep I'm sure if someone they liked at 10 was available, they'd find a way. Don't think they'd do Guhle though. Future picks however should and would be in play for sure.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:36 p.m.
Thread:
The Athletic recommended Markstrom trade
Listen, I don't want to toot our own horn here but believe it or not, the collective CF opinion (minus the crazies of course) are far more realistic than some of the Athletic or other publications opinions when it comes to trade value. They aren't thinking values and projections like we do. Their jobs are in creating narratives and storylines. Not analyzing data for trades like many of us do. Julian is good at what he does but I wouldn't put much stock in his trade valuations. I get LAK needs a goalie and wants to go get a cup but you don't sacrifice literally one of the best prospects in the league to go get a 34 year old, sometimes elite, sometimes dog poopoo, caliber goalie.
Its crazy how many writers/podcasters are so eloquent with words and quite knowledgeable on hockey culture, NHL rules, hockey politics etc but are completely out to lunch on trade values. AND THATS OK. He doesn't spend hours upon hours like some of us do here on CF, refining trade value knowledge.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:18 p.m.
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>The existing conditions on the Calgary pick were too complicated…so I included the other one. But I am sure there could be some arrangement where it is one of the 2025 picks, but protected if they end up in lottery pool.</div></div>
Yeah that CGY pick is worth a little less in trade as of right now because of that. As of mid year next year the value will be a little more certain.
As for the proposed trade. I think the 1st has to be top 10 protected. Problem though would be that if it pushes to 2026 due to being top 10, no way I would let it be unprotected either. Might be a difficult kind of deal to make. If it were me, i would be way more lenient on giving additional picks in place. Like two 2nds or something, etc. Not sure NJ would do that though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:46 p.m.
Thread:
Trading down for a 2025 pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caufield</b></div><div>Probably would need to add a top 8 protection, and take Harris instead of Struble</div></div>
Agreed. The deal could work but I would need some assurance that 2025 pick doesn't become another top pick. Given that the Habs aren't exactly poised to become a contender over night, pick protection is a must.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:42 p.m.
Thread:
Canes Not Expected to Bring Back Necas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac555</b></div><div>I’ve seen some variations of this trade on here a few times now. I am fully on board not bringing back Necas, but why would it be for another RFA without a deal?
You can’t evaluate this move without knowing the contract for both players.
I’m not convinced Hronek is the type of player the Canes pay long term for high AAV without seeing him in the Canes system first.</div></div>
Trading for a player whose an RFA and expected to get a decent raise is a killer to a GM's negotiations. Forces the team to cave a little because the agent knows the team wouldn't trade for a player then not sign them before the start of year. That way if its RFA for RFA its kind of swap of issues so that you at least the position of need if you are going to have to overpay.
Honestly I would just do it. Hronek isn't a superstar but he is decent, young and RHD are becoming hard to get without overpaying in free agency. With Burns getting older, Pesce leaving, I think this makes sense. I don't think any team is giving the Canes what they think Necas is worth. Same for Van with Hronek. Everyone wants to shed cap and get loads of picks and prospects but not many teams are doing that anymore.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:28 p.m.
Thread:
Reaching Cap Floor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_trade_churner_50</b></div><div>Fair enough. How much would the move maximum. Like a 3rd?</div></div>
Unless you are Geoff Molson and your going broke, I don't see why you would want to move him at all? Realistically there is no reason to. like it does not affect day to day operations of the Habs currently so why waste a pick? The only scenario is if the team had to sign like 5 big time RFA's next year and would be over the cap even if they had Price on LTIR. That won't ever be the case though since Price only has 2 years left.
Just bury him on LTIR and forget about it. Habs are still rebuilding, they can afford to do this till his contract is over.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:19 p.m.
Thread:
Reaching Cap Floor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_trade_churner_50</b></div><div>Unless it is 9.5million coming out of your pocket.</div></div>
Its insured up to like 80% of the contract. They don't pay much out of their pocket of the actual contract. The 2nd and 5th are probably worth more to them than like 1.5M in actual dollars.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 9:45 p.m.
Thread:
Too many btch3s on this team
You were saying? :tearsofjoy
Forum:
NHL Signings
Thu. at 3:04 p.m.
Thread:
New York Islanders signed Maxim Tsyplakov (1 Year / $1,950,000 AAV)
So surprised the Isles were the choice here.
Edit: Oh just found out why.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 3:02 p.m.
Thread:
At draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>If Dach for #13/#66 was fair…how does one see Holtz for #9/5th as unfair?
What if it was Holtz for #13/#66?</div></div>
Because I don't value the difference between 9th and the 13th the same as you do I guess BUT especially not in this draft particularly. Dach at the time of trade was worth more than Holtz is now IMHO. Also I would MUCH rather have the 9ov and the 5th round in this draft vs the 13ov and 66th in 2022. Again opinion based but no different/valid than yours.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Dach for #13 was reasonable
Holtz for #9 is unfathomable
Not many people (outside of Montreal) will agree on both.</div></div>
Without hindsight? I think plenty would agree. Go look at the comments from that Dach trade thread. Plenty of non MTL fans agreeing on value. I think you need to remove the past two years of Dach data if we're judging both players fairly. Then by contrast, how many on here would would agree to Holtz for 9th this year? I think you'd be surprised how little support you'd find. Also, there is a chasm between Markstrom for Holtz and 9ov for Holtz IMHO.
You really can't ignore context here though, are all drafts the same? No and people will value pick's in certain drafts more than others. Also position plays a factor here. Skilled but less physical scoring winger vs big mobile playmaking center? I know who im picking. Others can disagree, there is no right answer here without knowing how their careers play out.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>I don’t think we could get to 9 from holtz without adding, but I find it hilarious how skewed perception is for any player who’s rights are currently owned by MTL</div></div>
I mean you even said you don't think Holtz can get the 9th+5th without adding so what are we debating here? Dach was worth the 13ov+66th obviously by the fact the trade actually happened. I don't think anyone is skewing anything. At the end of the day, it will always be speculative and opinion based.
So its not just fans thinking he was, Habs mgmt did too. Nothing skewed there. Since we don't know for a fact what Holtz is worth we're going to have to speculate obviously. It doesn't mean my opinion is skewed. If Holtz is traded tomorrow for the 9th, I'll eat my words. I just don't think he will be. I guess we'll have to wait to find out.
Also don't do the CF thing of thinking someone automatically thinks the extreme the other way because they disagree. I don't think Holtz is worth 9th but i also don't think he is worth 29th either as a result. I couldn't <em>fathom</em> Holtz landing the 9th only. Start decreasing the value a little and it becomes more <strong>reasonable</strong>. Seeing as you think Holtz isn't worth the 9th without adding, it seems we're not even disagreeing here. You just don't like the words I used like "fathom" and "reasonable" it seems.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:21 a.m.
Thread:
At draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Same was said about Dach at time of his trade.</div></div>
Some may have said. I sure didn't. I think the shock was more at the fact NYI paid the 13ov for Romanov. 13th for Dach was reasonable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:15 a.m.
Thread:
How would you make a Mitch Marner Juuse Saros swap more fair
I think everyone thinks they understand the Marner value in trade but realistically this is going to be kind of like a one off. So many variables and conditions involved that its impossible to find a real comparable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:10 a.m.
Thread:
At draft
Can't fathom Holtz having that value right now.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:01 a.m.
Thread:
Four trades that probably happen if Marc Bergevin becomes Columbuses GM
Yeah I'm no Bergy fan but to portray him as one who makes such bad trades is unfair. He did way more good things than bad.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 7:58 p.m.
Thread:
Why not Silayev
Im always of the belief you go BPA with the caveat that you put a little emphasis on position to differentiate between equal players. Taking Silayev simply doesn't make sense unless they had a Guhle/Hutson/Matheson trade locked and loaded.
If they don't, then I would be fine picking the positional need whose slightly worse than Silayev. Its not like the gap is that great this year. 3-10 is basically a toss up and any one of them could be the best player at that point.
That is kind of the nice thing about this draft, they can't really mess it up as long as they take a player from the consensus top 12-13 players. Last year was the year to NOT reach for a dman...... but hindsight is 20/20 I guess.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 2:51 p.m.
Thread:
nerves before game 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shibbal18</b></div><div>Briere, Drury, Eichel. Besides, no matter how good he is, they arent sacrificing half the roster to facilitate his contract extension. Is everyone forgetting Dahlins cap hit is 11 mill starting next year? Along with Power, Thompson, Cozens, and Skinner making up over 50% of the cap, with UPL getting a contract, then Byram, Quinn, Peterka, and Levi needing one next year. Everyone sees the problem Toronto ran into</div></div>
I think Skinner may have to be a BO candidate eventually if no trade can be done which will alleviate some needed cap but a bunch of the guys you mentioned won't make more than what, 4-6M on their next contracts anyway... not sure what the issue will be? Oh i should say that I'm only taking Rantenen into account, not Colton who either can be moved in a separate deal or not included outright.
Either way, Im not going to force adding Rantenan on anyone. If your not interested, someone else will be. 100%
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 2:28 p.m.
Thread:
Status quo for the most part
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MTLaveragefan</b></div><div>You think Reinbacher and/or Mailloux will make the big team next year?
I think both of them should spend more time in Laval.</div></div>
Next year = 25-26 I mean. 24-25 = Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj can play right side if needed.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 2:27 p.m.
Thread:
Trading Back
The difference between 4 and 7 isn't even that much this year. Its'll cost a lot more than that to add Tkachuk to the trade.
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