Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: May 5, 2024

Published: May 16, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Despite the Leafs latest first round exit, the team played with more grit and tenacity than previous seasons and gave Boston everything they could before falling at the hands of a perfectly executed set play in Game 7 overtime. And while the team finished with a lower point total than the previous two seasons it wasn't because Treliving prioritized "snot" as he called it, but because of instability at goaltending. Hard to contend when one of your two options for starter goes down for two and a half months with a high ankle sprain and the other needs to have a mental health adjustment in the middle of the season. Besides toughness being a necessity in the ever tough and tumble Atlantic division, it's also just a more entertaining brand of hockey having a team of hard hitting, nasty, do whatever it takes warriors.

Because of this, I have made it a high priority of the Leafs to bring back both Bertuzzi and Domi. Bertuzzi for what he brought was a bit overpaid and no team should offer him anything close to the $5.5 million AAV he was earning this year over a long term deal, least of all the Leafs. Domi was arguably a bit underpaid but I've potentially overpaid him in this scenario. For whatever reason teams don't stick with him and if the Leafs are lucky they could potentially sign him for under the $4 million AAV I have him signed to here. Regardless, it shouldn't take more than a collective $9 million in AAV to cover each players return. To help with this, I have dealt both Jarnkrok and Kampf in cap clearing moves. While I like both of those players neither player provides something that can't be replaced internally. The emergence of McMann and the acquisition of Dewar (who should be cheap to re-sign) have made replacing Jarnkrok a not difficult task. And Holmberg can do everything Kampf does but at a much smaller cap hit, plus Domi and Dewar can each play centre and there is a good chance centre prospect Fraser Minten is on the Leafs next season. At any rate, removing $4.5 million worth of AAV off the books of Dubas holdovers who play a more passive game would be a good move for the Leafs, especially when their contributions can be replaced with younger and cheaper options.

To complete the forward group, I've re-signed both Dewar and Robertson and have graduated Cowan and Minten to the club full time. Minten was close to making the team last year but the NHL was just a bit too quick for him, and Cowan has just completed a dominant OHL campaign that saw him win the MVP award for both the regular season and the playoffs; something that hadn't been done since, ironically, Mitch Marner did it in 2015-16 (Connor McDavid did it the year prior to Marner, not that I'm comparing Cowan to the best player in the game, but more assuaging any Leafs fans anxiety that Cowan could follow in Mitch's footsteps as a poor playoff performer by making sure to point out that one year earlier a current dominant NHL playoff performer completed the feat). With these moves the Leafs keep their newfound tenacious style up front and inject more youth and speed into the lineup. With this youth movement there will be a glut of forwards, but it'd likely be a rotation of Cowan, Minten, Robertson, Dewar, and Reaves coming in and out of the lineup depending on each man's play and what the situation calls for. Right now I've got a fourth line of Dewar-Minten-Cowan, two high energy wingers with a rookie centre who's game is all about positioning and making smart plays with and without the puck, and Dewar's centre experience will allow him to step into the middle if Minten is feeling pressure. The third line is Knies-Holmberg-Marner, which would be capable of playing a shutdown role and gives Mitch the chance to prove he's worth what he's currently making and what he'll ask for on his next deal by driving his own line and shutting down the best the opposition has to offer. McMann-Tavares-Nylander had great chemistry last season, as did Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi so those lines remain the same. I've got Robertson and Reaves on the outside looking in but again, they'll rotate in and out over the course of a season.

Now as for what I've done with the defence, due to the lack of cap space, especially after re-singing Bertuzzi and Domi, there's really only enough money to sign one defenseman out of a pretty good class of UFA D-Men. I've chosen Matt Roy due to his handedness, excellent defensive capabilities, and his high ice time against top competition. He'd be the perfect partner for Morgan Rielly and he comes with a bit of sandpaper himself as he finished in the top 35 for hits for defensemen and stands at 6'2" 210lbs. For his contract I've given him a deal similar to the one TJ Brodie signed with the Leafs in 2021 and added a few hundred thousand to adjust for a higher cap. Now I may be way off here but I think a $5.4 million AAV over four years could get it done, especially since despite all of his defensive strengths Roy isn't offensively gifted, having never eclipsed 26 points in a season. Settling that, the Benoit-McCabe pairing remains since it worked so well in both the regular season and playoffs. McCabe has proven himself to be a true top four defenseman and his ability to play the right side was a revelation for the team. Benoit could also continue to improve as a defenseman given how he upped his game over the course of the season and will only be 26 to start next season. The dedicated cap up front and to Roy does however leave the third pairing as a bit of a patchwork. Liljegren is an established bottom four defenseman who's shown flashes of being capable of more but has been frustratingly inconsistent (which is why he barely gets a raise as an RFA), but under a new coach he could finally come close to potentially living up to that once 2nd best prospect label he had in the summer of 2016 before the 2017 draft. Webber is coming straight from college and stands at a daunting 6'7" and 216lbs. While he doesn't have a lick of pro-hockey experience he did have a fantastic final season in the NCAA, setting a new record for blocked shots (133 blocks) and was named Hockey East Best Defensive Defenseman.

The glaring issue for the defence will still be their ability to move the puck. Roy should help (he'll at least be better than Lyubushkin or Schenn before him) and while I do think McCabe is underrated in this regard he's still paired with a player who's puck skills are lacking (but improving). Webber will be a rookie and should only be expected to be big, take the body, and block shots. Liljegren will handle the transportation of the puck on that pairing but again, he has been inconsistent over his career and he has not had the best luck health-wise. This could prove an issue for the Leafs again, in which case a new coach and system will have to account for this. Finally, I also have enough cap space to have one extra defenseman on the roster (carrying a full 23 man roster with 2 extra forwards and 1 extra defenseman) and have the Leafs top defensive prospect in Niemela with the team. Niemela is pretty small, standing at 6'0" 180lbs, but his best attributes are his skating and ability to control, distribute, and move the puck. Things the Leafs defence needs more of. Like the other young guns I have on the team he won't be an everyday player, but he'll get valuable experience and coaching by being with the main club. While Conor Timmins could potentially help in this regard and I like his physical tools he's just too poor defensively and makes just a bit too much to be kept around. Maybe I've overestimated a couple of contracts and it could be possible to keep Timmins as the seventh guy but to be safe I've moved him in a deal and given Niemela his spot.

Finally, we have goaltending. I'll keep this short and sweet. Joseph Woll remains as the "goalie of the future" and the Leafs sign Laurent Brossoit in free agency to tandem with him. Brossoit I think has the potential to play 40+ games, which he may need to if Woll continues to be as injury prone as he's shown in his young career. I've signed Brossoit to a $3.5 million AAV and given his previous roles as a backup and relative lack of experience I think this is in the right ballpark for what a contract for him would look like. There isn't enough cap space to carry a veteran third-stringer with the team full time so the Leafs will have to either sign another Martin Jones type and try to sneak him through waivers or they have to be comfortable with Dennis Hildeby potentially starting some NHL games next season. The Leafs went out of their way this past year to make sure Hildeby didn't play on NHL ice but after a decent year in the AHL they should be more open to seeing what he's got should things come to that. As for that potential veteran goaltender the Leafs should sign I've chosen Matt Murray and given him a league minimum deal to have him play in the AHL. He was already doing that to end last season and given how volatile he is I doubt many teams would try to snipe him off waivers. Plus the goodwill the franchise has built up with Murray trying to rebuild him should hopefully convince him to take a cheap deal and stay in his home province, at least for the next year as he tries to build back up his value as an NHL goaltender. And if not him there's plenty of other journeymen goalies who could be had for a similar price.

That takes care of my roster construction and reasoning. Now on to the part that always gets everyone's goats, the trades. We'll start with what I consider to be the easiest trade I think can be pulled off, Timmins to San Jose. The Sharks are rebuilding, have a good amount of cap room, and desperately need talent. Timmins should provide an offensive jolt to a blueline that desperately needs it. Timmins is also young enough that he could fit into San Jose's long term plans and if not, they could always flip him for assets after inflating his value by feeding him prime scoring opportunities either this season or down the road.

I've sent Jarnkrok to Los Angeles. My initial reasoning was that with Arvidsson likely walking the Kings would want a good middle-six winger who's responsible defensively and can put up 30-40 points a season at a good cap hit to replace him. However having read a few Kings-centric articles it sounds like LA wants to have a youth movement of their own and may not be looking for another veteran winger to take Arvidsson's place. Should this be the case I still believe the Leafs can get good value for Jarnkrok in a deal given his utility and low AAV. If not the Kings I'm sure some team would want Jarnkrok and would pay a mid-round draft pick to get him.

The most difficult piece to move is Kampf. Three more seasons at a $2.4 million AAV is pretty bad and while I think he's a decent shutdown centre, he's a fourth liner and as such the Leafs are more likely to have to pay to move him than get true value back. Plus his 10 team NTC also complicates things. After mulling on it and assuming the 10 teams he has listed are the other 6 Canadian teams plus let's say Buffalo, Detroit, Minnesota, and Utah, I've decided to package Kampf alongside Timmins and send him to San Jose as well. Not to belabour a point but the Sharks are about to enter a long and painful rebuild and they'll need capable bodies to fill out the roster. Is Kampf particularly good? No, but he can be thrown out onto the ice to take the hard matchups and insulate Celebrini as he develops. Now for all I know Kampf has San Jose on his no-trade list but I'm not privy to that information and I'm betting that despite the Sharks' terrible outlook their location in northern California kept them off Kampf's no-trade list as he filled it up with the other Canadian markets and cold American markets (plus Arizona, though now with their move to Utah I wonder if players are able to change their NTCs to account for that). That all said, along with Kampf and Timmins I've thrown in the Leafs 2026 3rd and am only asking for Winnipeg's 2025 4th in exchange.

And that's that. In conclusion, the Leafs keep and hold on to the players that have contributed to the cultural shift we're witnessing, Rielly gets his new defence partner, the Leafs get capable goaltender insurance, and the youth movement that began last year continues for the Leafs. Put Craig Berube behind this bench and hire a coach who knows how to run a powerplay (or at least change things when they aren't working) and I believe this team is capable of actually doing something substantial in the regular season (i.e. win the Atlantic Division) to better position themselves for a more favourable playoff matchup and a deep run. People may hate that Marner is still here (or that I didn't break up the Core Four at all) but Mitch has a full NMC and despite all of the flak he's taken I don't think he wants to waive it. Matthews and Nylander aren't going anywhere and Tavares' contract expires after this next season so forcing him out doesn't make sense.

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