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jr400

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Forum: NHLYesterday at 10:38 p.m.
Thread: Players that would be nhl caliber without injuries
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmins_Is_Eating_Tims</b></div><div>Robin Lehner was one of the most promising goalies in the NHL and now his career is practically over. Lehner was drafted 46th overall in the 2009 NHL entry draft by the Ottawa senators. He was a very promising young goalie that could be in the NHL in the next few years. Once he came over from Europe, he excelled in the OHL as he had a 2.80 goals against average and a 918 save percentage with the Greyhounds. The next season he got his first stint in the AHL where he was very ok. The next season in the AHL he was fantastic as he won playoff MVP in the AHL. He also had his first bit of playing time in the NHL but he wasn't good as he had a 888 save percentage and a 3.52 goals against average. The next season he played 40 games in the AHL where he was extremely average and then was called up for 5 games. These five games he excelled as he had a 935 save percentage and a 2.01 goals against average. The next season he was fantastic in the AHL as he had a 938 save percentage and a 2.12 goals against average. This earned him a call up where he played 12 games. These 12 games were fantastic as he had a 2.20 goals against average and a 936 save percentage. He even got to play 2 games in the playoffs. The next season he earned a full time spot on the team as their backup goalie. He played great with Ottawa as their backup as he had a 913 save percentage and a 3.06 goals against average in 36 games. The next season he was still their backup and most of his statistics got worse. He had a 3.02 goals against average and a 905 save percentage in 23 games. The next season is when his career started taking off. Since the Senators had Andrew Hammond coming up as the next star goalie, that means that they had an extra goalie between Anderson, Hammond and Lehner. Lehner was the one that had to go. He got traded to the Buffalo Sabres with David Legwand for a first round pick in 2015. Lehner played his first season with Buffalo as their backup in the 2015-16 season and was great. He had a 2.47 goals against average and a 924 save percentage. The next season he became Buffalo's starter. He played 59 games in 2016-17 and had a 2.68 goals against average and a 920 save percentage. Sadly the Sabres were not good so he had a very bad win to loss ratio. The next season he was still their starter. He played 53 games and was not as good. He had a 3.01 goals against average and a 908 save percentage. You couldn't blame him as the Sabres were the worst team in the league in 2017-18. He ended up getting signed by the New York Islanders where he had his best season by far. In 2018-19, Lehner played 46 games with the Islanders and had a 2.13 goals against average and a 930 save percentage. He won 25 games that season and split his starting time with Thomas Greiss. This goalie tandem was unstoppable and they ended up winning the William M Jennings Trophy and Lehner won the Bill Masterton Trophy. Lehner came 3rd in Vezina voting. The next season the Islanders didn't resign him after they didn't go to far in the playoffs but Lehner was the best Goalie in the playoffs by far. He ended up getting signed by the Chicago Blackhawks where he had another good season. During his time with Chicago, he had a 3.01 goals against average and a 918 save percentage in 33 games. He ended up getting traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs and then was flipped to the Golden Knights in a three team trade. He played 3 games with Vegas and had a 940 save percentage and 1.67 goals against average. Then the season was cut short due to Covid. After the lockdown was finished the teams got to play their playoffs where Lehner played great. He had a 1.99 goals against average and a 917 save percentage. Vegas lost in the conference finals. He came 6th in Vezina Voting. The next season is when you saw Lehner starting to have injury problems. It started off with an upper body injury where he missed a month. Even though he was injured he still had a 913 save percentage and a 2.29 goals against average. He still won the William M Jennings Trophy as Fleury and Lehner were another unstoppable duo with Fleury winning his first Vezina Trophy as well. In the playoffs he got injured and didn't play well at all. He was cleared to play for days after he sustained an injury but was clearly still injured. During the 2021-22 season he battled constant injuries. These injuries ranged from small to big injuries. On October 1st he missed a week due to a undisclosed injury. Then in December he missed two weeks because of a lower body and an undisclosed injury. On February 14th he missed two weeks because of a lower body injury. On March 10th Lehner missed 20 days because of a knee injury. Then in April he had to get shoulder surgery and was expected to miss the start of the next season and the rest of the season he was playing. Then on August 11 of 2022 it was announced he injured his hip. His injury time will be for the rest of the season and he still hasn't played since then. Sadly, in 2023 it was announced he would become bankrupt. That broke the hearts of many hockey fans as he was one of the best goalies in the league to become bankrupt and injured to never play again. That was the story of Robin Lehner injury prone career</div></div>

Thanks for the update. I knew he was out for the season in 22-23, but I assumed he'd be back at some point. Wasn't he also in the player assistance program at one time? I remember him being a player assistance program success story, as he came back stronger and talked publicly about how much it helped him. I didn't know he had been having financial issues too. I thought players on LTIR still got paid until their contracts run out. He has one more year left on his.
Forum: NHL TradesApr. 20 at 8:13 a.m.
Thread: (WPG/LAK) - Dubois for Iafallo, Kupari, Vilardi, 2024 2nd (MTL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Earth2Fire</b></div><div>PLD is the perfect player to be tutored by Kopitar. This trade will eventually be viewed as the time when the Kings got "their" guy and the Jets got pieces.</div></div>

That’s what I was thinking, that this may be all about succession planning. I didn’t see it but there was a game last week when Kopitar was out and Dubois took his spot, contributing a goal on the power play. Kopitar is still going strong, but he’ll be 37 years old at the start of next season. Dubois is a long-term investment. With Kopitar as his mentor, the Kings are probably hoping he can become a better all-around player and more of a leader, and be ready to step into Kopitar’s spot when Kopitar retires. They didn’t bring him in to play on the fourth line.

Whether this plan works or not remains to be seen. He’ll probably never be as good as Kopitar, but he doesn’t necessarily have to be. The first year hasn’t been good (though the team is pretty much as good as it was last season, so it hasn’t really hurt them), but I agree that it’s probably too soon to judge whether this was a good move.
Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 19 at 10:33 a.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 19 at 10:10 a.m.
Thread: Anaheim Ducks signed Cutter Gauthier (3 Years / $1,900,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>I believe I was very specific when I said "he told the org he wasn't signing" as in he told the Flyers, not the public, which was a kindness he didn't owe the org to keep it quiet and keep his trade value high.</div></div>

I don’t know why he refused to sign in Philadelphia, but regardless of the reason, spending such a high draft pick on a guy only to have him refuse to sign has to hurt, even if Drysdale becomes a cornerstone of their defense. You could say Gauthier showed some respect for the team by not going public with whatever his issue was, but that doesn’t change the fact that he refused to play for them. Assuming he makes the team in Anaheim – there are no guarantees even for a 5th overall pick – I expect Flyers fans to boo him every time he steps on the ice in Philadelphia, and I would not fault them at all for that.

Fans of other teams will probably forget about it though, unless one day he says he wants out of Anaheim.
Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 19 at 9:27 a.m.
Thread: Anaheim Ducks signed Cutter Gauthier (3 Years / $1,900,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>if you actually knew anything about the NHL you'd know what a beer league it was in 1963.
Lets not pretend it wasn't a beer league. It got organized to make money.
</div></div>

The difference between a beer league and a professional league is the beer league gets its revenue from the players, who pay the league for the chance to play. A professional league gets it from fans, and uses it to pay players whom they believe the fans will want to pay the team to see.

The NHL was never a beer league. You could say that until the 1967 expansion it was a regional league concentrated in eastern Canada and the northeastern US, but by then it already had most of the best hockey players in the world, though there were a few exceptions. We didn’t know how good the top players in the USSR were until they played a team of NHL all-stars in 1972, or how good Swedish hockey was until Borje Salming came to the NHL in 1973, but the NHL was the world’s top hockey league. I was told by the son of a 1930s NHL player that at that time, many of the world’s top players played in Canada’s senior amateur leagues – teams like the Whitby Dunlops and Trail Smoke Eaters – that competed for the Allan Cup, because in those leagues it was easier to balance hockey with a full-time day job that would earn them more money, but by the 1960s, NHL salaries had risen to the point of being able to entice most of the best players to play there.

I think the main reason there’s more money in the game today (relatively speaking) than in the 1960s is a combination of cultural and economic factors. The population was significantly lower than it is today, and those people didn’t have as much disposable income to spend on entertainment as they do now. This is true of all forms of entertainment – they weren’t the big businesses they are now. Owners had more leverage over the players, and they didn’t seem to value them as much, feeling that they could easily be replaced. The NHL players union had a corrupt leader (Alan Eagleson) who was in cahoots with the team owners, which wasn’t known until some years later, but this also helped to hold down salaries.

Anyway, I didn’t quite get the connection between the NHL being a beer league in 1963 and teams today not caring about their fans, but my point is you can’t assume that the relatively low player salaries at that time means that it wasn’t a major professional league. Those low salaries were just a sign of the times.
Forum: NHL TradesApr. 14 at 11:51 a.m.
Thread: (WPG/LAK) - Dubois for Iafallo, Kupari, Vilardi, 2024 2nd (MTL)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>It's actually hilarious that; while being in a deserved bottom 6 role with the Kings,

Dubois would still be 5th in scoring if he played on the Habs...


No Habs fan has the right to clown on this trade, Jets fans however...</div></div>

You’re asking the wrong question. The question should be: Would Dubois be worth $8.5M to Montreal, where presumably he would be playing higher in the lineup? You could argue that he would help them now, and they could fit him under the cap by using more LTIR allowance, but this is an 8-year contract. If the team continues to improve and their young players develop the way they hope, it won’t be long before they’ll have better ways to spend that money. I’m sure there’s a bit of sour grapes in some of the comments we’re seeing from Habs fans, but I agree with them. They’re probably better off without him and his 8x$8.5M contract.
Forum: NHL TradesApr. 12 at 9:14 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/CAR) - Guentzel, Smith for Bunting, Koivunen, Ponomarev, Lucius, 2024 2nd (PHI), 2024 5th (CAR)
Even if none of the prospects pan out and Carolina loses Guentzel to free agency (which would be better than giving him a big 7 or 8 year contract at his age), this already looks like a great trade for both teams. Bunting has fit in well, he’s signed for two more years, and the Penguins have been much improved since the trade, propelling themselves from what looked like a lost season into a position where they now seem more likely to make the playoffs than not. Meanwhile, Carolina was looking for an elite goal scorer. That’s not what Guentzel has been, but he’s looked like an elite set-up man who has brought Jarvis and Aho to another level, so they may have actually got two elite goal scorers out of the deal.
Forum: NHL TradesApr. 12 at 9:00 p.m.
Thread: Confirmed: (PHI / WPG) 2016 1st round pick (22)/2016 2nd round pick (36) - for  2016 1st round pick (18)/2016 3rd round pick (79)
When judging a trade like this, you have to look at the earliest pick, because that was the only known quantity at the time. Winnipeg wanted Stanley badly enough to trade up to make sure they got him. Nobody who was available at that time stood out on Philadelphia’s list. They may have had a handful of players they considered pretty much equal, so they figured they could do just as well by waiting. Who was right? Probably Winnipeg, because Stanley has turned out to be better than the players picked #19-22, but if Philadelphia wasn’t going to pick Stanley anyway, I don’t think it hurt them much to miss out on the next three players drafted, Kieffer Bellows, Dennis Cholowski and Julien Gauthier. It looks like Tage Thompson was the guy they should have picked, but he didn’t go until #26, so they likely would have made that mistake with or without this trade.
Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 12 at 10:30 a.m.
Thread: Vegas Golden Knights signed Noah Hanifin (8 Years / $7,350,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheReelChuckFletcher</b></div><div>It's possible that Vegas extends Mantha short-to-medium term instead of Marchessault. They like cycling their stars a bit in order to give them solid team depth.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Nah I think he's gone. They need the cap for Marchessault and they have some guys who can fill his spot</div></div>

I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised either way, but if it comes down to one or the other, you could argue that Mantha may be the better choice. Marchessault is the better player, but Mantha should cost them less to sign, and he's younger. It all depends on whether they feel their cap situation makes keeping Marchessault a luxury they can't afford, and how important they think it is to position themselves for sustained success versus just planning for next season. It seems that their planning has always been short term, but replacing Martinez with Hanifin tells me that they may be thinking they need to get younger. Mantha isn't exactly young -- he'll be 30 when his next contract kicks in -- but he's almost four years younger than Marchessault.

It also wouldn't surprise me if they found a way to keep both of them. I don't know how, but it wouldn't be the first time they've found a way out of a situation where they had no apparent path to cap compliance.
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 15 at 10:10 a.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs signed William Nylander (8 Years / $11,500,000 AAV)
In what universe is Nylander worth more than Pastrnak? Not the one in which the games I’ve been watching are played. Pastrnak has been a consistently more impactful player than Nylander for a lot more years. I suppose you could attribute the difference in dollars to a year of inflation, but even if you believe that, Nylander’s contract is worth significantly more than Pastrnak’s because:

1) Nylander’s contract includes his age 35 year versus Pastrnak’s age 27 year.
2) Nylander has a full no-move clause for all 8 years of the contract. Pastrnak only got that for the first 5 years.
3) 75% of Nylander’s contract is signing bonuses, and in years 7 &amp; 8 it’s closer to 90%, making it buyout proof. Pastrnak’s is only 29%, and that goes down toward the end of the contract when they’re more likely to want to buy it out.

This contract is structured the same as the Tavares contract that everybody hates, only it’s worse because it runs a year longer. (Tavares’s contract also started with his age 28 year.) How are the Leafs ever going to compete with the Bruins when they give out bigger contracts to players with a lesser body of work?
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 10 at 9:38 p.m.
Thread: (NJD/WPG) - Toffoli for 2025 2nd (WPG), 2024 3rd (WPG)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jdb9831</b></div><div>It's just a dumb thing to do. Too often the team giving up the blue-chip prospect ends up regretting it. Nobody wants to be Washington in the next Forsberg for Erat trade</div></div>

I suppose it does seem more embarrassing to give up a prospect who becomes a star than if you give up a draft pick that ends up getting used to select a star, but in the end I don’t think the GMs care that much. In fact, I think they may actually like it when a player they give up does well for the other team, because it makes them look like a good trading partner. Nobody wants to deal with a guy who’s trying to fleece them. I don’t think Vegas loses much sleep over Nick Suzuki. Nor will they over Edstrom if he becomes a star.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 10 at 9:16 p.m.
Thread: (WSH/CAR) - Kuznetsov for 2025 3rd (CAR)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>3.9 Million and Carolina is starting him on the 4th line. Such a clueless trade</div></div>

I don’t think the plan is to leave him on the fourth line. Apparently he hadn’t skated since going into the player assistance program. I don’t know much about the program, but that surprised me because with the guys in the program being professional hockey players, I thought it would include time for them to try to stay in near game shape. Anyway, you can’t blame Rod for wanting to start him slowly. With Drury out today he played with Noesen and Necas. If I was them I’d be trying to groom him to be Guentzel’s setup man, but his passing looks a little off so far. Hopefully that’s just lack of familiarity with the system and his teammates. It seems like they’re not where he expects them to be.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 10 at 10:22 a.m.
Thread: (SJS/VGK) - Hertl, 2025 3rd (SJS), 2027 3rd (SJS) for Edstrom, 2025 1st (VGK)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pinslack</b></div><div>Vegas and their annual tradition of trading their 1st round picks

edit:

Vegas Golden Knights first-round picks:

2026: Traded
2025: Traded
2024: Still have
2023: David Edstrom (traded)
2022: Traded
2021: Zach Dean (traded)
2020: Brendan Brisson
2019: Peyton Krebs (traded)
2018: Traded
2017: Cody Glass/Nick Suzuki/Erik Brannstrom (all traded)</div></div>

I think they’re hosting the draft this year, so I suspect that’s the only reason they still have their 2024 pick. I don’t know if the league makes having a first round pick a condition of hosting the draft, or they hung onto it voluntarily because they thought it would be weird hosting the draft without one. I suspect they’ll pick somebody and trade him at next year’s deadline.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 9 at 9:28 a.m.
Thread: (SJS/VGK) - Hertl, 2025 3rd (SJS), 2027 3rd (SJS) for Edstrom, 2025 1st (VGK)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MGK</b></div><div>All the good UFAs or players on the market are in their 30s and the cap is skyrocketing. Hertl might have more knee problems and that contract probably won't age well, but Vegas is looking at the next 2-3 years as opposed to just 1 more year with a guy like Buchnevich. In years 4-6 that contract is probably going to suck.

Guentzel: wants to explore his UFA options and wants to get paid 10M until he's 37
Buchnevich: the ask is supposedly 2 1sts. Vegas gave up a former 1st and 2025 1st but they got back 2 third rounders. Hertl gives them more term on a guy who ACTUALLY plays C/LW unlike Buchnevich who is mainly a LW/RW
In the unlikely event that Marchessault leaves, they have Hertl locked up.</div></div>

A good way to look at it is to ask yourself, if Hertl was a UFA this summer, would you be happy to sign him for 6x$6.75M? If the answer is yes, it’s a good trade. But I just don’t see how he fits in. It looks to me like he’d be their 3rd line center. But there are going to be changes in Vegas this off season, so maybe it’ll all make sense then. If not, they’ll just find a way to get rid of him. They’ve always been good at finding ways to get rid of people when they need to clear cap space.