Quoting: Caerii
If you want to do a fun thought exercise, go look through the results of the last 10 or 15 drafts, and look at some of the guys drafted 10-12, and then look at the guys available still at picks 13 and 45, and tell me which drafts you wouldn't take 13 and 45 in.
If you draft well, 13 and 45 is rarely worse than 10.
2015: Mikko Rantanen vs Jakub Zboril
2016: Tyson Jost vs Jake Bean
2017: Owen Tippett vs Nick Suzuki (*)
2018: Evan Bouchard vs Ty Dellandrea
2019: Vasily Podkolzin vs Spencer Knight (*)
2020: Cole Perfetti vs Seth Jarvis
2021: Tyler Boucher vs Matt Coronato (*)
2022: Pavel Mintyukov vs Frank Nazar
2023: Dalibor Dvorsky vs Zach Benson
Most of the time 10 turns out more valuable than 13.
But there is a real drop-off around 12 this year.