Realistic Marner Destinations - Analysis - CapFriendly

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Realistic Marner Destinations - Analysis

Created by: Ryminister_92

Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: May 11, 2024

Published: May 12, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

In what expects to be an off-season of major change, I thought I’d break down what an actual realistic take on a Mitch Marner trade might look like.

I don’t think Toronto will necessarily “win” any deal involving Marner given the high level of intense criticism he receives, but I think they can do good to not “lose” a deal either. That being said, I wouldn’t expect a #1 right handed defender or a top prospect or elite scoring forward in return - I’d picture more of a solid #3 defender with some upside and a competent 3C with a gritty edge as the main focus with the underlying advantage being the cap space free’d up in the deal. I think the cap space gained in a deal will be used to lure both of Elias Lindholm and Chris Tanev to Toronto - so essentially these trades include the addition of both of them as well.

I’ve narrowed it down to 4 reasonable landing spots for Marner with a description of why the trade make sense in each (read them before you comment on a deal). Could there be other teams Marner would waive for? Absolutely. But Mitch wants to be a go to guy and still get paid like one and the amount of teams that can fit that while still in a competing window is slim. So if you have a suggestion as to another team he might waive for, leave it below and why you think he’d waive.

The teams I highly doubt Marner waives for are:
San Jose, Columbus, Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Detroit, NY Islanders, and Boston - so that already eliminates 13 teams from the mix.

Constructive comment only are welcomed.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Korczak, Kaedan		2	$1,275,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Lindholm, Elias		7	$7,000,000
Tanev, Christopher		3	$4,500,000

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell	1	$10,903,000
Marner, Mitchell	1	$10,903,000
Marner, Mitchell	1	$10,903,000

Trades

TOR

Borgen, William
Gourde, Yanni
Goyette, David
2025 2nd round pick (SEA)
2026 5th round pick (SEA)

Additional Details:

*Conditional 2025 2nd round pick (SEA):
- If Seattle advances to the 2025 Western Conference Finals this pick becomes a 2025 1st round pick (SEA)

Why Toronto does this:
Admittedly, Toronto doesn't "win" this deal despite giving up the clear cut best player in the deal - but they also don't necessarily "lose" the deal either. In return for the young superstar, Toronto adds a middle pair right handed defender, a gritty two-way 3rd line centre, and youth to rebuild their depleted farm system. They also gain cap space - $3,036,334M in cap space to be precise. In doing so, this starts the retool of not only reshaping the roster, but changing the culture within the organization. Borgen and Gourde are both the types of guys to play a more physical style of hockey, while Gourde has proven he can drag his teammates into a playoff style of hockey when needed. Neither one of the roster players (Borgen or Gourde) come with immediate extensions as part of the deal, but I could see Borgen extending very soon after and Gourde playing out some of the season before re-signing as well.

SEA

Abruzzese, Nick
Marner, Mitchell
2025 6th round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

*Mitch Marner signs a 8 year/$88M extension ($11M aav) as part of the deal

Why Seattle does this:
The Kraken are lacking one major component to their team - a superstar to drive offence and market within the business aspect of the game - Marner solves both those problems. Seattle adds a consistent near 100-point winger with elite defensive play to be a leader in their locker room and produce on the ice. His playoff struggles are well documented, but a change of scenery to a less media heavy market can take some pressure off Marner and elevate his game to a whole new level. With Washington State being a tax free state, the Kraken are able to secure Marner to a long term commitment with no raise from his current salary.

TOR

Hague, Nicolas
Korczak, Kaedan [RFA Rights]
Roy, Nicolas
2025 2nd round pick (VGK)
2026 6th round pick (VGK)

Additional Details:

Why Toronto does this:
To maximize the amount of roster players Treliving is able to bring in to immediately help the roster improve, Toronto retains 15% of Marner's cap hit for 1 season and brings in 3 roster players that greatly improve the team. Hague and Korczak had mobility and physicality to the blue line and both are young with multiple years of team control. Both of them will help reshape the blueline to be heavier to play against on a nightly basis. In Nic Roy, Toronto adds a player that's buried in Vegas' lineup but is dying for more ice time. He's currently playing 4C in Vegas but has the skill to be a middle 6 centre. All players involved come with multiple years of contract control for the Leafs and Toronto saves roughly $4,333,850M in cap space.

VGK

Marner, Mitchell ($1,635,450 retained)

Additional Details:

*Mitch Marner signs a 8 year/$84M extension ($10.5M aav) as part of deal

Why Vegas does this:
Vegas loves star players. Although they're in a tight cap situation, a top 6 winger of Marner's calibre would be highly sought after by team owner Bill Foley who's never scared to add big time players. With Nevada also being a tax free state, the Golden Knights are able to secure Marner on a long time deal at a below market value contract.

*I'm aware that Vegas would need to move out salary in a separate deal to make Marner work - however Vegas isn't scared to move players and teams don't have issues with moving bottom players for cap space if they can add a superstar player (my guess is that Brett Howden becomes easily expendable).

TOR

Bennett, Sam
Ekblad, Aaron
Sourdif, Justin
2025 5th round pick (SJS)
2026 3rd round pick (FLA)

Additional Details:

*Sam Bennett signs a 6 year/$33M extension ($5.5M aav) as part of deal.
*Aaron Ekblad does not sign an extension as part of deal but is open to discussing one with Toronto.

Why Toronto does this:
Despite adding cap space with this deal, acquiring Ekblad and Bennett begin to shift the culture in the locker room. Both are key players in a physical game and have proven to elevate their play in the playoffs to a different style of game that the Leafs haven't figured out yet. While both are pending UFA's and both have shaky injury histories, Treliving is no stranger to acquiring pending UFA's with the intentions are signing them long term. This may seem like a step price for Panthers fans, but the injury history of both players and along with the, being pending UFA's makes the deal easier to make.

FLA

Marner, Mitchell ($1,308,360 retained)
Liljegren, Timothy [RFA Rights]
2026 7th round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

*Mitch Marner signs a 8 year/$80M extension ($10M aav) as part of deal

Why Florida does this:
Assuming the Panthers lose out on re-signing Sam Reinhart this summer, losing him opens a big hole in the lineup. Acquiring Marner fills that hole with a similar offensive player and defensive player while Toronto retains 12% of Marner's contract. Losing Ekblad and Bennett may be a tough pill to swallow, but the idea of Marner playing with his junior teammate and best friend in junior in Tkachuk replaces that pill. Tkachuk is the type of guy to drag his teammates into the fight and maybe he can get Marner in a different mindset come playoff time. As part of this deal, Tkachuk convinces Marner to buy into a bit more of a team game and take a lower than market value contract extension to join a team that will be a lethal threat for years to come. This deal also allows Florida the cap space to keep Brandon Montour around as he's a key part to their PP. Florida also acquires Liljegren who may be in need of a change of scenery. He has the underlying numbers that suggest he could use a bump in ice time, but his ice test is fairly inconsistent. Perhaps a new coaching system could jump start his game a bit more and I think Maurice's system is perfect for him.

TOR

Jones, Seth
Ludwinski, Paul
2025 2nd round pick (CHI)

Additional Details:

Why Toronto does this:
One of, if not Toronto's biggest need is a shooting defenceman to lead their PP. They tried adding Klingberg for that role, but it didn't work out. Seth Jones would be the perfect fit for that role and could also log big minutes in all situations. Admittedly the return is quite a bit weaker here than the other potential returns, but Chicago doesn't have as much reason to acquire Marner as the other teams so I would assume they wouldn't offer as much. This does fill an instant need though, as well as add some youth to the farm system along the way.

CHI

Marner, Mitchell

Additional Details:

*Mitch Marner signs a 8 year/$96M extension ($12M aav) as part of deal.

Why Chicago does this:
Probably the longest shot deal listed here, but the idea of pairing Marner with franchise centre Connor Bedard is too good of an idea to not think about. Marner has proven he can elevate his line mates and has experience playing with an elite sniper centre in doing so. Adding a playmaker to Bedard's line could take some pressure off the youngster while giving Chicago a dominant combination. The extension that comes with Marner is higher than the other options, however Illinois is not a tax free state nor is Chicago close to being a contender when acquiring Marner so it will take more to entice him to commit long term - but Marner could be interested in the long term continued success of Chicago rather than a team that may see their window close sooner.

Retained Salary Transactions

Mitchell Marner: $1,635,450 (15%)
Mitchell Marner: $1,308,360 (12%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
14	$87,700,000	$71,835,477	$0	$0	$15,864,523

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $13,250,000$13,250,000 C NMC UFA - 4
Knies, Matthew $925,000$925,000 LW, RW RFA - 1		Nylander, William $11,500,000$11,500,000 RW NMC UFA - 8
		McMann, Bobby $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
	Kämpf, David $2,400,000$2,400,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
McCabe, Jake $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1		Woll, Joseph $766,667$766,667 G RFA - 1
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 6
Benoit, Simon $1,350,000$1,350,000 LD UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Holmberg, Pontus $800,000$800,000 C, LW RFA - 1	Lindholm, Elias $7,000,000$7,000,000 C, RW UFA	Borgen, William $2,700,000$2,700,000 RD UFA - 1
Reaves, Ryan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 2	Tanev, Christopher $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA	Gourde, Yanni $5,166,666$5,166,666 C, LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1
Timmins, Conor $1,100,000$1,100,000 RD RFA - 1		Goyette, David $891,667$891,667 ($80,000$80K) C RFA - 3
		Hague, Nicolas $2,294,150$2,294,150 LD RFA - 1
		Roy, Nicolas $3,000,000$3,000,000 C, RW UFA - 3
		Korczak, Kaedan $1,275,000$1,275,000 RD RFA
		Bennett, Sam $4,425,000$4,425,000 C UFA - 1
		Ekblad, Aaron $7,500,000$7,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1
		Sourdif, Justin $847,500$847,500 C RFA - 1
		Jones, Seth $9,500,000$9,500,000 RD NMC UFA - 6
		Ludwinski, Paul $900,000$900,000 ($55,000$55K) C RFA - 3

May 12 at 3:48 p.m.

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,880

Likes: 10,156

I hope the Hawks just draft Demidov. Keep Jones. We've got our #1RW and #1D without giving anything up. WAY to big a hole on the right if we trade Jones away.

Hawksguy81, RicXX, Patches and 1 other person liked this.

May 12 at 3:50 p.m.

sheldon_kweef

sheldon kweef

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 227

Likes: 48

Marner to Vegas for Shea theodore is the best and most realistic option

May 12 at 3:54 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: exo2769

I hope the Hawks just draft Demidov. Keep Jones. We've got our #1RW and #1D without giving anything up. WAY to big a hole on the right if we trade Jones away.

I honestly think Chicago should take Levshunov and still keep Jones. But Marner could be a possibility - I know we’ve discussed this before, and I agree it’s not a likely option, but it gives Bedard a playmaker and takes some pressure off him.

Hawks should take Levshunov as he’s their position of need most (I believe the first 2 round you take the beta player at your position needed then the rounds after that just take the best player). Chicago will likely be a top 10 pick next draft and there’s tons of offensive forwards to take them but not many right handed defenders - and a guy like Bedard should be able to elevate his line mates so they shouldn’t need a high end guy for him

exo2769, Hawksguy81 and RicXX liked this.

May 12 at 3:54 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: sheldon_kweef

Marner to Vegas for Shea theodore is the best and most realistic option

Theodore is one of the top defenceman in the league and on a great contract - it doesn’t make sense for Vegas to move him.

May 12 at 3:56 p.m.

Hawksguy81

Joined: Nov. 2022

Posts: 9,214

Likes: 11,249

Not sure the Hawks would be down for a $12m AAV extension. But if so this is probably a trade the Hawks would consider.

Ryminister_92 and RicXX liked this.

May 12 at 3:57 p.m.

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,880

Likes: 10,156

Quoting: Ryminister_92

We have discussed. And I hear you. I just think at #2OA, you draft best available. Not position of need. I've watched Levshunov a bunch at MSU and the 2nd half of the season was better than the 1st half...AND I do think he'll be a solid NHLer, but at #2OA you have to be looking for game changers.

Ryminister_92, Hawksguy81, RicXX and 2 others liked this.

May 12 at 3:58 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: Hawksguy81

Not sure the Hawks would be down for a $12m AAV extension. But if so this is probably a trade the Hawks would consider.

Not being a tax free state would increase Marner’s contract. & honestly it’s only a $300K raise from his current contract when you look at cap hit percentage as the main factor so it’s not much different than what he’s at now

Hawksguy81 and exo2769 liked this.

May 12 at 4:01 p.m.

sheldon_kweef

sheldon kweef

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 227

Likes: 48

Quoting: Ryminister_92

Theodore is one of the top defenceman in the league and on a great contract - it doesn’t make sense for Vegas to move him.

His contract is up next year and they traded for and signed hanifin to replace his role on the top pair and powerplay etc, marner gives vegas a top winger to play with Eichel.

May 12 at 4:09 p.m.

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: sheldon_kweef

His contract is up next year and they traded for and signed hanifin to replace his role on the top pair and powerplay etc, marner gives vegas a top winger to play with Eichel.

& the cap increases so they’ll have extra room to sign him.

May 12 at 4:16 p.m.

#10

sheldon_kweef

sheldon kweef

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 227

Likes: 48

Quoting: Ryminister_92

& the cap increases so they’ll have extra room to sign him.

Would make more sense especially using that logic to trade him for marner, they are thin on the wings and loaded on the back end

May 12 at 4:47 p.m.

#11

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,880

Likes: 10,156

Quoting: Ryminister_92

But aren't US taxes less than Canada? If we're going this route that is.

May 12 at 5:02 p.m.

#12

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: sheldon_kweef

Would make more sense especially using that logic to trade him for marner, they are thin on the wings and loaded on the back end

Leafs aren’t going to get a top pair defender for Marner.

May 12 at 5:04 p.m.

#13

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: exo2769

But aren't US taxes less than Canada? If we're going this route that is.

Well yes, but still not lower in Illinois than the tax free states

May 12 at 6:16 p.m.

#14

Caniac2000

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 20,134

Likes: 5,126

You're getting nothing like this for Marner lmao. Toronto has 0 leverage. They have to make a trade to open up cap space at some point, Marner has a full no move so any team that he would be open to has full control, and you're demanding Ekblad, and an extended Bennett? LMFAO, stop it. You might get a top 4 RD, and a late 1st from a team that he's open to joining, like not Chicago. Realistic? No

May 12 at 6:24 p.m.

#15

VGKNation702

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 5,227

Likes: 1,669

Quoting: sheldon_kweef

Marner to Vegas for Shea theodore is the best and most realistic option

Retained of course

Also there’s no way we trade for Marner and make him the highest paid player on the team. You sell the lower tax and better situation here and try to get a 8x8-9.5

May 12 at 8:58 p.m.

#16

Garak

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 11,517

Likes: 11,604

I think, from a team that has interest in Marner, and with an extension in place, TOR can do MUCH better than these proposals. I think most of these are probably closer to what they might get for him with NO extension in place.

That said, I don't think CHI would have any interest in Marner at this price, or in any long term capacity, or really in any capacity.

May 12 at 9:40 p.m.

#17

Ryminister_92

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 830

Quoting: Garak

I’d have to disagree with Toronto getting more. Sure Marner with an extension SHOULD be worth more, but Toronto would be dealing him at his lowest value after numerous no shows in the playoffs and every team knows they have to change it up or lose him to free agency for nothing. While the player returns may seem weak (although I think the Vegas and Florida packages are fairly strong), it’s worth noting that Toronto gains cap space to be able to sign Lindholm and Tanev so that’s part of the value as well

Garak liked this.

May 12 at 9:48 p.m.

#18

Garak

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 11,517

Likes: 11,604

Quoting: Ryminister_92

I’d have to disagree with Toronto getting more. Sure Marner with an extension SHOULS be worth more, but Toronto would be dealing him at his lowest value after numerous no shows in the playoffs and every team knows they have to change it up or lose him to free agency for nothing. While the player returns may seem weak (although I think the Vegas and Florida packages are fairly strong), it’s worth noting that Toronto gains cap space to be able to sign Lindholm and Tanev so that’s part of the value as well

For sure. I get all of that. But I still think that, if a team wants him with an extension in place, they are obviously willing to look beyond his post season shortcomings. So, if TOR can find a contender or a team on the cusp that has interest in him as a long term piece, I think they'll be willing to pay up. But who knows.

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