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MNCountryClub
Member Since
May 5, 2021
Favourite Team
Minnesota Wild
Forum Posts
2693
Posts per Day
2.4
POSTS
THREADS
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
20 hours ago
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Digitalbooya06</b></div><div>I don’t think Guerin would trade him for a pick. He’s under pressure for the team to perform or risk Kaprizov wanting out. A player for player swap is most likely IMO.</div></div>
Ah good point - I think you're probably correct there. I do think he would deal him for a pick if it came down to it, but agree that player swap is probably more likely.
I hope I'm wrong, but I think Guerin has already made up his mind on trading him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
21 hours ago
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BsInOttawa</b></div><div>
2. Healy has no value. NCAA prospects are valueless if they've played 2 seasons and not signed. The chance of them not signing to manipulate where they go is too high, unless you know that you're the team they want to play for. (See Fox, Adam)</div></div>
Healey doesn't have value here because he's not particularly special, but it isn't bc of the NCAA.
McBain played 4 years at BC, openly said he wouldn't sign and still returned a 2nd. Fox was traded for (2) 2nds.
Your assessment on them being "valueless" is simply incorrect. Though I appreciate the comment nonetheless since it does seem well-intentioned.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 5:45 p.m.
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Digitalbooya06</b></div><div>Wild should not trade Gus for a 2nd round pick. We have enough of those types of prospects.</div></div>
I don't disagree, but I'm of the opinion that Guerin is gonna deal him, so that's why I keep using this trade. It's really just a proxy for some futures-centric package involving Gus.
I'm going for realism not what I would do personally.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 5:39 p.m.
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LumberJacques</b></div><div>That 4 year term is going to be a no-go for MTL, they can take cap but more than 1 year is going to be a hard sell.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SMH</b></div><div>Fair trade with montreal but i don't see how they would be interested</div></div>
I figured as much, but went for the hail mary with Gaudreau being a local and the fact that he can be buried for under a 1M if there isn't' a bounceback year.
Makes sense though, I wouldn't do it from MTLs perspective either.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 5:37 p.m.
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dsimz13</b></div><div>I'd like to think the sens already have better offers in front of them for Chychrun. I hope so anyway</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caerii</b></div><div>Chychrun gets more than this, but otherwise yeah, I think both of your threads have felt realistic from a Wild POV</div></div>
Thanks - too lazy to tweak it on this one, but that's helpful. and if I make another one with Chych, I'll up the value.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 3:20 p.m.
Thread:
What it takes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Theo_nollaf</b></div><div>Plays centre?</div></div>
30+ year old 3rd line journeymen, both good for 35-45 points and neither are going to materially impact the game on a consistent enough basis.
When you're talking about depth pieces, Term/AVV >>>>>> position.
It's an easy pass.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 2:01 p.m.
Thread:
What it takes
Rodrigues is basically just Johansson with more cap and term.
No reason for MN to do this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 6:59 p.m.
Thread:
Guerin type offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoolHandL</b></div><div>I would only do the Zary trade (assuming Calgary wanted to as well).
I would keep Gus. They probably won’t get enough in return anyway due to his most recent numbers… like a 25’ 2nd is probably close to accurate, but it’s piss poor value. Also, do they really want to rely on an age 40 Flower and a rookie Wallstedt (regardless of his stock) to help get them back to the playoffs? I would keep Gus and see if he can re-establish his value. Wallstedt will get more starts regardless due to Flower being in his twilight. Better to ease in goalies, regardless of how highly touted they are.</div></div>
To be clear, these are not trades that I'm hoping for or would do myself. It's a reflection of what I think Guerin will likely try and accomplish - i.e. Rossi for a young player with upside, Gus for cap space/futures, add some more grit/depth, sign a vet to a short-term.
Trading Gus for poor value wouldn't be my first choice either, but when going for realism (which this ACGM is), then I wager on the side that he does get dealt.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 17 at 10:03 a.m.
Thread:
Rossi is available but READ ME
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuffaloSoldier</b></div><div>All these are from 2021 really early into his career season. You literally have armchair GMs trading him for top 10 picks + Ridley Grieg / Roby Jarventie from the summer right before he got traded lol.</div></div>
It's Greig and a 2nd before Greig played a game. If you think that's an overpay relative to 19th OA and Faber (the ACTUAL return), then you're just being willfully dense.
All of those are pretty much on par with the real return plus/minus a bit.
Revisionist history.
edit - well to be clear, they're all signficantly under the actual return now that Faber has broken out. But at the time, he was that tier of prospect.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 15 at 11:49 a.m.
Thread:
Rossi is available but READ ME
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BuffaloSoldier</b></div><div>'I remember being told Fiala wouldn't return jack **** bc MN had no leverage and that everyone's favorite team DEFINITELY didn't have interest."
It was kind of the opposite. Wild fans thought Fiala would return a top 10 pick + blue chip prospect + roster player. Also Wild fans posting armchair GMs of him getting the 2nd overall pick from the Devils.
Fans of other teams said they'd get a 1st + solid prospect, but won't get a top 10 pick. They were pretty spot on with his value since we already had plenty examples of other RFAs getting traded to look at.
Seems like Wild fans are back on the kool aid with Rossi.</div></div>
I can't control what other people post, but that's revisionist history from my experience. Here are the receipts.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2917959
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2950855
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 13 at 12:38 p.m.
Thread:
Buffalo and philly fans would this be enough
It's a question nobody on here can answer and anyone that pretends they can is kidding themselves.
In 2019, AZ jumped from 14 to 11 for pick 45. Your value is fine.
Just comes down to each FOs individual draft board and how things shake out on draft day. On paper and for ACGM entertainment purposes, it's totally reasonable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 12 at 4:17 p.m.
Thread:
Rossi is available but READ ME
As expected, nobody reads, everyone thinks their prospects are untouchable and suddenly the traded player is awful. If only there was a way to monetize predicting how CF threads would unfold.
I remember being told Fiala wouldn't return jack **** bc MN had no leverage and that everyone's favorite team DEFINITELY didn't have interest.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 10 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread:
Rossi
Obviously MN declines.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 10 at 12:34 p.m.
Thread:
New bottom 6 and trading down with STL
Raw value is probably not too far off, but MN is planning to extend Middleton this summer, so doubt he can be had without an overpay. Guerin loves him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 10 at 10:30 a.m.
Thread:
Speculationif Michkov were to come over
Can't really see MN trading back that far. Already have a lot of mediocre prospects, the priority is quality > quantity in that dept.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 6 at 10:49 a.m.
Thread:
Two teams in need of a shakeup
I would do that from MNs perspective. You could drop Wahlstrom if you'd prefer.
I'd bite on 3rd + 4th + Beckman for Holmstrom, and tbh I'd probably even go a little higher.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 3 at 10:58 a.m.
Thread:
Off season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>Sure and you can swap Faber for Rossi</div></div>
I was just razzing you. I never said Rossi would be a player I'd keep over Faber.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 3 at 9:56 a.m.
Thread:
Off season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>Marchenko is the last player on the jackets team I would trade. Well maybe behind werenski and fantilli but still.</div></div>
If that's the case, you can swap Jiricek in for Marchenko :grimace
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 2 at 9:35 a.m.
Thread:
Chesley
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MNBassman</b></div><div>I kind of made my trade on the fly - what would you consider an equitable swap with Rossi and Chesley as the centerpieces?</div></div>
Newhook is Rossi's closest comp and he went for 31st + 37th + Fairbrother (77th in 2019).
Chesley went 37th, so you're roughly looking at the Caps coming up with 31st + 77th in value to makeup the diff. Obviously other factors at play, but that's the napkin math.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 2:07 p.m.
Thread:
Another Rossi Idea
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Renegade_H</b></div><div>Id trade Brink and Frost for a Rossi package. Or Zamula and Frost and pick.</div></div>
Which I'd imagine doesn't move the needle enough for MN, unless the FO is particularly high on one of those players.
If that's the best PHI can do, my hunch is that MN just keeps him or gets a better offer elsewhere.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 1:55 p.m.
Thread:
Another Rossi Idea
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Renegade_H</b></div><div>Sanheim is available for Rossi. Just saying. If thats an interest, let me know. Flyer fans definitely have interest in Rossi to man our 2nd line.</div></div>
Sanheim would be a no. Guerin was pretty transparent in his post-season presser that he likes the d corps as is. A Middleton extension is expected this summer according to MNs main beat writer, and MN also has a ton of LD prospects.
Who on PHI would be considered available in a Rossi trade? Not saying in a 1-1, but just as a framework.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26 at 3:43 p.m.
Thread:
What is Rossis value
Idk I guess on paper, Newhook/Dach are probably the comps to start with for ballparking value:
<strong>Newhook </strong>-
66 pts in 159 games for 0.41 ppg. 16th OA in 2019.
Return: 31st + 37th + B/C in Fairbrother
<strong>Dach </strong>-
71 pts in 152 games for 0.46 ppg. 3rd OA in 2019.
Return: 13th + 66th
<strong>Rossi </strong>-
41 pts in 103 games for 0.39 ppg. 9th OA in 2020.
But obviously that's just the vacuum of counting stats (at the time of the trades), draft position and return. MNs lack of immediate C depth and whatever Guerin wants/needs could change the equation quite a bit.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26 at 11:09 a.m.
Thread:
just one more year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FloppyBiscuit</b></div><div>I was going off the Sanderson and Power extensions, but you're probably right that McAvoy is a better comparable</div></div>
McAvoy was bridged first - he signed a 3x4.9M after his ELC before the big ticket. Not that I think it will matter much - Faber probably does go north of 9M. Just that your Sanderson/Power comps are probably closer on paper.
Edit - I'll be curious to see what Seider gets this summer, as well.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 26 at 10:15 a.m.
Thread:
Rossi Traded
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>The point would be that both GM's were selling from a point of weakness. Gauthier because he was not going to sign with Philly and Rossi with the fact that it seems he's not a Guerin guy and he keep him despite him playing well. The actual exact details are not the same as i said, obviously. Similar only that one sense.
For sure we'll find out if he's gung ho on moving him. Hope he moves past the size thing and keeps him. He's finally turning into the player he was drafted to be.</div></div>
But the relative points of weakness aren't even remotely close to one another, and that's assuming Guerin is even dealing from a point of weakness to begin with. Which, I don't agree that he is. That's fine if you do, but it's hardly indisputable like it was in the case of Briere/Gauthier.
The entire argument is propped up on the opinion that once a GM a makes a player available, he damages his negotiating power to a significant enough degree that you're pointing it out. No issue with you having that stance, but that isn't a fact.
And agree - moving him for size/grit reasons would be quite dumb. Rossi plays hard and tough, I don't get Guerin's obsession with trying to be the nastiest team in the league.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 25 at 4:36 p.m.
Thread:
Rossi Traded
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>Hmm I still disagree with that first sentiment. NHL trading is different than stocks and the housing market but yes I do agree with the old boys club mentality of the GM's. I didn't mean to imply that teams were now going to bend Guerin over backwards as a result. More so that, in a vacuum, a player like Rossi after the season he had would reach a level of perceived value that would force other teams to start a higher starting point for negotiations. Making him available (With realistic expectations and not just "listening"), automatically changes the dynamic of that negotiation.
Again I didn't mean that now Minny would need to accept the first crap offer thrown at them and I agree 100% with the Team A gets Player X and Team B gets Player Y + Draft Pick Z assertion. The real question I was hinting to is what would be the difference between the hypothetical scenario mentioned above vs if Rossi was not being actively shopped. IMHO I think there would be a decent amount of value lost as a result.
A similar but not exact example of this was Philly with Gauthier. What would Philly have got in return if Gauthier never wanted out and they were just listening to teams offers? Different circumstance than with Rossi obviously but a parallel can be made.</div></div>
Gauthier is not a good parallel at all. He was not under contract with PHI and outright said he would not sign. Rossi, however, has a contractual obligation with the Minnesota Wild and does not have an ounce of say in the matter. There is an iron clad legal difference between the two situations. That has exponentially more to do with trade price than whether or not a GM "made the player available."
We're just gonna have to agree to disagree here, and we can revisit the value if he does get dealt this summer.
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