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Philipp Grubauer's potential/trade value?

Nov. 13, 2017 at 11:50 p.m.
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I would put this in the Capitals forum, but I'm the only one that's ever in those, so I'll post this here instead lmao.

What do you feel Grubauer's potential and trade value is? He's put up fantastic numbers in the backup role with the Caps, although we've had some fantastic defensive teams in the past. I feel like he can end up being a solid starter for another team in a couple years, and could bring a late first round pick in return at the draft. My opinion probably has some bias in it, so I'm curious as to what some other people think about him.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 10:44 a.m.
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I really like Grubauer. He's been one of the more consistent backups for the past few seasons. I was expecting him to find a starting job this season with a different team, especially with all of the goalie swaps that went on during the offseason. He obviously doesn't have a shot at starting in Washington, so he'll likely have to wait until the offseason to find a new home. There aren't going to be nearly as many open positions this offseason as there were last offseason.

One place I could see him headed is Calgary. With Eddie Lack becoming a UFA and Mike Smith (age 35) only having one more season after this, there could be an opening. However, Smith has looked really good this season and Calgary has quite a few prospect goalies they'll be looking to give shots to.

Buffalo could a possibility if Lehner doesn't pan out. Johnson is a career backup on an expiring deal, and if Lehner flounders they could be looking for someone new. It's getting close to panic time in Buffalo, and they may be looking for an immediate answer in net; with Luukkonen years away from being a viable option, they may take a chance on Grubauer.

Detroit is known to be having issues with Mrazek, as they protected friggin Jimmy Howard over him. Howard is getting older and Mrazek has been known to have attitude issues. They may look to move him and pick up Grubauer as the heir apparent since they don't look to be rebuilding at all.

If Raanta falls flat in Arizona, there could be a place for Grubauer in the desert. Domingue doesn't look to have a future as an NHL starter and Raanta is a UFA. If he falls flat, they may not want to take a risk signing him to a longer term deal and go for the safer, RFA Grubauer.

After this season, Cam Talbot has one more year before he's a UFA. He's definitely looking to be a top tier goalie and with Edmonton's cap situation they may not be able to give him the money he wants. They do have the young Laurent Brossoit as the heir apparent, so it'll probably take one more year to evaluate him; likely too late to hop on the Grubauer train.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 11:31 a.m.
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Washington will keep Grubauer throughout his cheaper RFA years, then sell high when his play reaches its best. He could give Washington some depth players in a potential deal with another team.

Potential targets (in two years):
- Ottawa (with Anderson getting older Gurbauer could be the next option).
- Detroit (if the rebuild goes ahead of schedule, and Mrazek and Howard are both traded).
- New York Rangers (unlikely since these teams are rivals, but with Lundqvist leaving his elite years behind, this is an option).
Nov. 14, 2017 at 12:30 p.m.
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Ottawa was the team I thought was the best fit, but that was before they extended Anderson and traded their first
Nov. 14, 2017 at 1:24 p.m.
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Quoting: DarylthePony
Washington will keep Grubauer throughout his cheaper RFA years, then sell high when his play reaches its best. He could give Washington some depth players in a potential deal with another team.

Potential targets (in two years):
- Ottawa (with Anderson getting older Gurbauer could be the next option).
- Detroit (if the rebuild goes ahead of schedule, and Mrazek and Howard are both traded).
- New York Rangers (unlikely since these teams are rivals, but with Lundqvist leaving his elite years behind, this is an option).


If he's moved he's moved this season or just after. They're only gonna move him if they see Holtby as their long-term starter. In 2 years Holtby will be 30 and might only have a few more years of being a top 3-5 goalie in the NHL.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 1:36 p.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan


If he's moved he's moved this season or just after. They're only gonna move him if they see Holtby as their long-term starter. In 2 years Holtby will be 30 and might only have a few more years of being a top 3-5 goalie in the NHL.


Yes, in two years he might have a few years left. That means 3-6 years of Holtby as a starter, he's under contract for 2 more...one of WSH other prospects will be ready at that point and/or they can re-sign Holtby. The longer they don't move Grubauer, he appears as more of a backup by teams around the league. Trading him this year seems to be ideal, a la Talbot, Andersen, Raanta, Jones, etc. Depending on the market, I think he could draw a pick between 20th-50th and maybe something more.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 1:44 p.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Quoting: DarylthePony
Washington will keep Grubauer throughout his cheaper RFA years, then sell high when his play reaches its best. He could give Washington some depth players in a potential deal with another team.

Potential targets (in two years):
- Ottawa (with Anderson getting older Gurbauer could be the next option).
- Detroit (if the rebuild goes ahead of schedule, and Mrazek and Howard are both traded).
- New York Rangers (unlikely since these teams are rivals, but with Lundqvist leaving his elite years behind, this is an option).


If he's moved he's moved this season or just after. They're only gonna move him if they see Holtby as their long-term starter. In 2 years Holtby will be 30 and might only have a few more years of being a top 3-5 goalie in the NHL.


Grubauer is going to be the odd man out. Once Holtby is done as a high end goalie, we'll give the reigns to Ilya Samsonov. At this point, Grubauer is an asset waiting for us. The best way for the team to go about moving him would be to do it at the draft or midseason for high picks/prospects, considering that this is a deep draft class. Something around the early 20s would work, or a second and a prospect. That'd be my ideal return for him.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 2:09 p.m.
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Quoting: DarylthePony
Washington will keep Grubauer throughout his cheaper RFA years, then sell high when his play reaches its best. He could give Washington some depth players in a potential deal with another team.

Potential targets (in two years):
- Ottawa (with Anderson getting older Gurbauer could be the next option).
- Detroit (if the rebuild goes ahead of schedule, and Mrazek and Howard are both traded).
- New York Rangers (unlikely since these teams are rivals, but with Lundqvist leaving his elite years behind, this is an option).


They're not going to keep him longer than they have to. The longer they keep him, the more RFA time he loses and the more value he loses. Teams would much rather trade a player that has RFA rights, and Washington would be wise to trade him while he still has RFA rights so they can get a better return. The best time to move him was at the end of last season. We may not see him put up last season's numbers again, especially with Washington's defense losing Alzner and Schmidt, and Carlson likely hitting the open market.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 3:16 p.m.
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast


They're not going to keep him longer than they have to. The longer they keep him, the more RFA time he loses and the more value he loses. Teams would much rather trade a player that has RFA rights, and Washington would be wise to trade him while he still has RFA rights so they can get a better return. The best time to move him was at the end of last season. We may not see him put up last season's numbers again, especially with Washington's defense losing Alzner and Schmidt, and Carlson likely hitting the open market.


Personally, I’d trade him when his value peeks. Wait till he’s playing his best, and wait for a team desperate for a goalie. Grubauer will be gone within the next 2 years.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 4:01 p.m.
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Quoting: DarylthePony
Washington will keep Grubauer throughout his cheaper RFA years, then sell high when his play reaches its best. He could give Washington some depth players in a potential deal with another team.

Potential targets (in two years):
- Ottawa (with Anderson getting older Gurbauer could be the next option).
- Detroit (if the rebuild goes ahead of schedule, and Mrazek and Howard are both traded).
- New York Rangers (unlikely since these teams are rivals, but with Lundqvist leaving his elite years behind, this is an option).


They're not going to keep him longer than they have to. The longer they keep him, the more RFA time he loses and the more value he loses. Teams would much rather trade a player that has RFA rights, and Washington would be wise to trade him while he still has RFA rights so they can get a better return. The best time to move him was at the end of last season. We may not see him put up last season's numbers again, especially with Washington's defense losing Alzner and Schmidt, and Carlson likely hitting the open market.


Carlson better not hit the open market this offseason. Defense is already our biggest weakness at the moment, and he's been absolutely fantastic in Niskanen's absence. I'm pretty sure he's leading the league in TOI, or at least in the top 5.

I thought that we would trade Grubauer for a top four defenseman after Vegas took Schmidt in the expansion draft, but every team had already found their goaltending solution. Now that it seems we're committed to giving guys like Djoos and Bowey long NHL looks, we need to use him to bring in another high end prospect. I do think Arizona would be a good fit at this point in time, potentially in a deal for Nick Merkley. I just think we need to use him to bring in another real good prospect, especially if we're truly committed to this retooling.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 4:44 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
Quoting: rangersandislesfan


If he's moved he's moved this season or just after. They're only gonna move him if they see Holtby as their long-term starter. In 2 years Holtby will be 30 and might only have a few more years of being a top 3-5 goalie in the NHL.


Grubauer is going to be the odd man out. Once Holtby is done as a high end goalie, we'll give the reigns to Ilya Samsonov. At this point, Grubauer is an asset waiting for us. The best way for the team to go about moving him would be to do it at the draft or midseason for high picks/prospects, considering that this is a deep draft class. Something around the early 20s would work, or a second and a prospect. That'd be my ideal return for him.


you're right, i forgot about Samsonov. Still though, Grubauer has already put up some good numbers in the NHL, Samsonov, like all prospects, is still kinda questionable, especially being a goalie prospect.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 5:23 p.m.
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My money's on Grubauer to AZ for the 32nd overall pick this summer (or earlier). Doesn't seem like there's a much better asset out there, gives the Caps a pick that they could really use after having very few last year.
Nov. 14, 2017 at 7:19 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
I would put this in the Capitals forum, but I'm the only one that's ever in those, so I'll post this here instead lmao.

What do you feel Grubauer's potential and trade value is? He's put up fantastic numbers in the backup role with the Caps, although we've had some fantastic defensive teams in the past. I feel like he can end up being a solid starter for another team in a couple years, and could bring a late first round pick in return at the draft. My opinion probably has some bias in it, so I'm curious as to what some other people think about him.


You won't get a first rounder for a backup. If he is good as you say he is, why not just keep him in the backup role??
Nov. 15, 2017 at 12:21 a.m.
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Quoting: PaulDunnill
Quoting: krakowitz
I would put this in the Capitals forum, but I'm the only one that's ever in those, so I'll post this here instead lmao.

What do you feel Grubauer's potential and trade value is? He's put up fantastic numbers in the backup role with the Caps, although we've had some fantastic defensive teams in the past. I feel like he can end up being a solid starter for another team in a couple years, and could bring a late first round pick in return at the draft. My opinion probably has some bias in it, so I'm curious as to what some other people think about him.


You won't get a first rounder for a backup. If he is good as you say he is, why not just keep him in the backup role??


Because we need the assets we could get for him more than we need a backup goalie. Pretty simple, Paul. But I’m not surprised I have to explain something this obvious to you
Nov. 15, 2017 at 9:01 a.m.
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This is the guy I wanted Boston to go after in the off-season. I'd do a 2nd + mid prospect for him.
Nov. 15, 2017 at 9:55 a.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
I would put this in the Capitals forum, but I'm the only one that's ever in those, so I'll post this here instead lmao.

What do you feel Grubauer's potential and trade value is? He's put up fantastic numbers in the backup role with the Caps, although we've had some fantastic defensive teams in the past. I feel like he can end up being a solid starter for another team in a couple years, and could bring a late first round pick in return at the draft. My opinion probably has some bias in it, so I'm curious as to what some other people think about him.


Well if more people used the team forums it would probably help activity there instead of cramming it all in a few areas of the board... I"m thinking they will probably try to trade him unless they want him for Post Season insurance... Vegas is too stupid to trade for him, he might actually have a save percentage .900 or above so that rules him out there smile. Montreal already has enough money sunk into Price even if he probably will get about 1M per game played at his current rate hehe... I'm not sure if Calgary or Vancouver would move for him, Coyotes can't do much worse in net, I'd imagine they would rather ship him to Western team to avoid any issues... Dallas Stars perhaps if they think he is a backup since they like paying a lot for their goalies smile. I don't see him going to the Wild, maybe Edmonton can trade Milan Lucic for him that worked out well for Kings when shipped Jones to Boston then they flipped to San Jose smile.

He would probably net at least a 2nd or 3rd rounder if it was purely picks. Hard to trade goalies often for any value... Devan Dubnyk was like a cold or flu nobody wanted before he found the right situation. Colorado could use a goalie since Varly is kinda pricey to compete for a starting role. I wish him well regardless of where he goes, he took a smaller contract to get his freedom after this year which shows he is a good team player and person.
Nov. 15, 2017 at 10:22 a.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
Quoting: PaulDunnill


You won't get a first rounder for a backup. If he is good as you say he is, why not just keep him in the backup role??


Because we need the assets we could get for him more than we need a backup goalie. Pretty simple, Paul. But I’m not surprised I have to explain something this obvious to you


Last time I checked, you need a backup goalie. And you need a backup goalie who can get you some wins....in the area of .500 hockey playing 15-20 games. You wear down Holtby by playing him too much, you will have the same result in playoffs.....disappointment. But I shouldn't be surprised I have to tell you this.
Nov. 15, 2017 at 4:30 p.m.
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Quoting: PaulDunnill
Quoting: krakowitz


Because we need the assets we could get for him more than we need a backup goalie. Pretty simple, Paul. But I’m not surprised I have to explain something this obvious to you


Last time I checked, you need a backup goalie. And you need a backup goalie who can get you some wins....in the area of .500 hockey playing 15-20 games. You wear down Holtby by playing him too much, you will have the same result in playoffs.....disappointment. But I shouldn't be surprised I have to tell you this.


If you actually knew something about the rest of the NHL, Paul, you'd know that the Caps got Pheonix Copley in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade as well. We did that because we knew he could be a decent backup for us this season, anticipating Grubauer would be selected in the expansion draft. So we do have a backup goalie.
Nov. 15, 2017 at 5:46 p.m.
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I Imagine Grub would get a little less than Talbot or Jones got. IMO those two were and are better players. Grub has some decent stats but also played on the best regular season team these past 5 years. Antti Niemi would have all star stats playing for WSH too.

Not saying he isn't good just not as good as those two which I think Caps fans think he is. I think a 2nd rounder is the best they could get. Maybe if Grub was playing well this season he could get a 1st but as of right now, no.
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Nov. 17, 2017 at 4:29 a.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
Quoting: PaulDunnill


Last time I checked, you need a backup goalie. And you need a backup goalie who can get you some wins....in the area of .500 hockey playing 15-20 games. You wear down Holtby by playing him too much, you will have the same result in playoffs.....disappointment. But I shouldn't be surprised I have to tell you this.


If you actually knew something about the rest of the NHL, Paul, you'd know that the Caps got Pheonix Copley in the Kevin Shattenkirk trade as well. We did that because we knew he could be a decent backup for us this season, anticipating Grubauer would be selected in the expansion draft. So we do have a backup goalie.


Basically 0 NHL experience = unproven, good luck though, he has a nice name
Nov. 19, 2017 at 11:18 p.m.
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Quoting: F50marco
I Imagine Grub would get a little less than Talbot or Jones got. IMO those two were and are better players. Grub has some decent stats but also played on the best regular season team these past 5 years. Antti Niemi would have all star stats playing for WSH too.

Not saying he isn't good just not as good as those two which I think Caps fans think he is. I think a 2nd rounder is the best they could get. Maybe if Grub was playing well this season he could get a 1st but as of right now, no.


Yeah it might be hard to even get a 3rd or 4th round pick for him depending on players... Kings seemed to get more when they shipped out Ben Scrivens than Ben Bishop who had a better history. Even the trade when they got Bishop was like Budaj going to Tampa among other minor stuff... His numbers are not that great right now, maybe they can get a Matt Frattin then ship him for a Gaborik who helped spark Kings to 2nd or last Cup wink... That Jones deal was brutal shipping out Miller who was fastest skater/hardest shot right shooting AHL all star D-man doing decent for Vegas. Hard to say who did worse in the Jones trade Boston shipping him to SJ or the Kings to Boston. Coyotes could use a goalie, few other teams, I don't think Vegas is as interested as people speculate though. I'm still trying to figure why they even signed Pavelec who never liked as a starter much less backup so who knows what GMs will do in reality smile.
Mar. 26, 2018 at 1:13 p.m.
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I'd like to bring up this question one more time. Since the last time this was discussed, Grubauer has basically been the starting goalie for us. He's won 8 of his last 10 decisions, which includes two shutouts (San Jose and Detroit), and has come on in relief of Holtby twice recently, giving up zero goals in each relief appearance.

I think he's driven his value up significantly over the last two months or so. Thoughts?
Mar. 26, 2018 at 1:15 p.m.
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I like Grubauer to NYI for a 2nd+3rd but some don't seem to think that's enough.
Mar. 26, 2018 at 3:14 p.m.
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I think it'll really depend on who gets resigned before free agency. Guys like Hutton, Raanta, Khudobin, Ward might all be available for free to sign. Plus I think teams may wait till Grubauer resigns first to see what his contract will be.

I think a late 1st may be the best they could get if all the stars align.
Mar. 26, 2018 at 3:50 p.m.
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Quoting: krakowitz
I'd like to bring up this question one more time. Since the last time this was discussed, Grubauer has basically been the starting goalie for us. He's won 8 of his last 10 decisions, which includes two shutouts (San Jose and Detroit), and has come on in relief of Holtby twice recently, giving up zero goals in each relief appearance.

I think he's driven his value up significantly over the last two months or so. Thoughts?


Your the Caps fan @krakowitz so I want to hear your thoughts on this:

Would you be open to Washington trading Holtby? If the Caps could retrieve a package of picks and prospects for Holtby and then hand Grubauer the reins, what would you think of it? I'm not saying this would happen or should happen, I'm just curious to see what a Caps fan would think of it.
 
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